venerdì 15 luglio 2016

Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period July 15 - July 21, 2016


Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A7.5-A2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 80-105 f.u.
Events: class C (0-2/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 10-80

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 15 - July 21, 2016


Quiet: Jul 15 and 18
Unsettled: Jul 19- 21
Active:  unlikely Jul 17 and 21
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
At most, we expect at the Budkov observatory at most quiet to unsettled
conditions. Till Monday, July 18, we expect at most quiet conditions, the
second half, more unsettled status is possible. We do not expect any
storming event.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 15 - August 10, 2016


Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on July 16 - 17, August 1 - 2
mostly quiet on July 15, 24 - 26, 31, August 10
quiet to unsettled on July 18, 21 - 23, 30, August 5 - 7, 9
quiet to active on July 19 - 20, 27 - 29, August 3 - 4, 8
active to disturbed on August (3 - 4)

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected:
on July 19 - 21, 27 - 29, August 2 - 4, 7 - 8


Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz