:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 04 - 10 July 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels from
04-06 Jul followed by low
levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561
(S16, L=344,
class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at
07/0756
UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul)
produced
all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059
UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No
Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels
on
09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with
a
sequence of coronal holes.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet
from 04-06 Jul with a
few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar
wind regime.
Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul
due
to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to
active
conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to
unsettled
levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 11 JULY - 06 AUGUST
2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for
C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due
to
flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very
low
for the remainder of the forecast period.
No proton events are expected
at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul
and 05-06 Aug
following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels
are
expected otherwise.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach
minor storm levels on
11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.
Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue
followed by
quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A
second
CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on
14-15
Jul with active periods likely on the 14th. Mostly quiet levels
are
expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
anticipated
from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH
HSSs.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug
with
isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small
CH
HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due
to
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to
active conditions
on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as
effects
subside.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-07-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jul 11 92
20 5
2016 Jul 12 90 12 3
2016 Jul 13
90 8 3
2016 Jul 14 90 15 3
2016
Jul 15 90 10 3
2016 Jul 16 90
5 2
2016 Jul 17 90 5 2
2016 Jul 18
90 5 2
2016 Jul 19 85 14 3
2016
Jul 20 78 12 3
2016 Jul 21 76
12 3
2016 Jul 22 77 7 2
2016 Jul 23
77 11 3
2016 Jul 24 75 10 3
2016
Jul 25 73 6 2
2016 Jul 26 74
4 2
2016 Jul 27 73 6 2
2016 Jul 28
72 7 2
2016 Jul 29 71 9 3
2016
Jul 30 72 8 3
2016 Jul 31 74
7 2
2016 Aug 01 72 4 2
2016 Aug 02
77 5 2
2016 Aug 03 83 23 5
2016
Aug 04 87 23 5
2016 Aug 05 92
14 3
2016 Aug 06 94 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
