:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jul 25 0218 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 18 - 24 July 2016
Solar activity was low on 18-20 and 22 July
with multiple C-class
flares from Regions 2565 (N04,L=175, class/area Dho/320
on 16 July)
and 2567 (N05, L=166, class/area Dki/380 on 21 July). The
largest
flare during that period was a C4.6 from Region 2567 at 20/2215
UTC.
Moderate solar levels were observed on 21 and 24 July with
four
M-class flares observed from Region 2567. The largest flare
during
that period was an M2.0 observed at 24/0620 UTC. Activity
reached
high levels on 23 July with three M-class flares from
Region
2567. The first was
an M5.0,
which peaked at 23/0211 UTC. The second was an M7.6/2b flare with
an
associated 310 sfu Tenflare. The final was an M5.5/3b, which peaked
15
minutes later at 23/0531 UTC had accompanying Type II (729 km/s
shock
velocity) and Type IV radio emissions, as well as a 900 sfu
Tenflare. Two
CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery lifting off
the west limb at
23/0524 UTC and 23/0548 UTC. Both CMEs were
determined to not have an
Earth-directed component.
No proton events
were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However, a
slight enhancement to near
1 pfu was observed at 23/0725 UTC due to
the flare activity from early on 23
July.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels on 18-19 July, normal levels from 20-23 July, and
moderate
levels on 24 July.
Geomagnetic field activity reached minor storm levels
on 19-20 and
24 July due to the shock arrival of two CMEs. The first
shock
arrival was likely associated with flare activity on 16 July and
was
observed at the ACE spacecraft at 19/2310 UTC with a speed
of
approximately 450 km/s. The Bt component increased from near 5 nT to
17
nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deviation of -12 nT. Minor
storm levels
were observed from 19/2355 until 20/0600 UTC. The
second shock enhancement
was observed near 24/1450 UTC and likely
associated with flare activity on 20
July. Wind speeds increased
from near 400 km/s to 470 km/s accompanied by a
Bt enhancement from
5 nT to 13 nT and southward deflection of Bz to -9 nT for
nearly
three hours. Minor storm conditions were observed with this
event
during the 24/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period. Geomagnetic
field
activity was quiet on 18, 21-23 July with a nominal solar wind.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 25 JULY - 20 AUGUST
2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the first
half
of the period with a chance for M-class flares from 05-19 August
due
to the return of old Region 2567.
No proton events are expected
at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the
majority of the
period with high levels from 05-15 August due to recurrent CH
HSS
events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active
levels on
25-27 July due to lingering CME effects and the arrival of
a
positive polarity CH HSS. Active to minor storm levels are expected
on
29 July, 03-05, 08, and 10 August due to recurrent CH HSS
activity. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the
remainder of the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Jul 25 0218 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-07-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jul 25 75
8 3
2016 Jul 26 75 15 3
2016 Jul 27
70 12 3
2016 Jul 28 70 8 3
2016
Jul 29 70 20 5
2016 Jul 30 70
12 3
2016 Jul 31 70 8 3
2016 Aug 01
70 5 2
2016 Aug 02 70 5 2
2016
Aug 03 70 20 5
2016 Aug 04 70
20 5
2016 Aug 05 80 15 4
2016 Aug 06
95 10 3
2016 Aug 07 105 10 3
2016
Aug 08 105 20 5
2016 Aug 09 105
8 3
2016 Aug 10 105 12 4
2016 Aug 11
105 10 3
2016 Aug 12 105 8 3
2016
Aug 13 105 5 2
2016 Aug 14 105
5 2
2016 Aug 15 105 8 3
2016 Aug 16
105 12 3
2016 Aug 17 100 5 2
2016
Aug 18 90 8 3
2016 Aug 19 85
8 3
2016 Aug 20 80 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
