:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jul 18 0416 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 11 - 17 July 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels from
11-14 July with only a
few simple sunspot regions. Region 2565 (N05, L=175,
class/area
Cko/350 on 17 Jul) rotated onto the east limb on 11 July as a
simple
Hsx spot class with a simple alpha magnetic class. By late on
14
July, another spot group began to emerge behind Region 2565 and
was
numbered 2567 (N05, L=165, class/area Dhi/330 on 17 Jul). Region
2567
quickly grew to over 300 millionths in area and was initially
classified as a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic group before some magnetic
simplification occurred
on 16 July. The region was downgraded to a
beta-gamma magnetic class for the
remainder of the period. Region
2567 became the most active region during
15-17 July producing 13
C-class flares. However, the close proximity of the
two regions, as
well as an active inversion line between the two, resulted
in
several flares to be attributed to Region 2565 on 17 July. The
first
was a long duration C1/Sf flare at 17/0803 UTC which was
responsible
for two CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
17/1124
UTC and 17/1248 UTC. The first was a faint asymmetric halo CME
while
the second was directed mostly off the east limb. Initial
WSA-Enlil
model output of the events showed a slow transit with
effects
possible on 21 July. The largest flare of the period, however, was
a
C6 at 17/2335 UTC which also occurred on the inversion line and
was
subsequently attributed to Region 2565.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the period with a maximum
flux of 5,512 pfu
observed at 17/1630 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity
ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels. The majority of the period was
under the influence of high
speed solar wind streams from a large, positive
polarity, polar
connected coronal hole as well as an isolated, positive
polarity
coronal hole. Solar wind speeds reached highs around 550 km/s
early
on 11 July, 650 km/s late on 12 July, and 700 km/s early on 15
July
before finally decreasing to around 440 km/s by the end of
the
period. Total field during the period only managed to reach a
maximum
of 9 nT at 12/0552 UTC. Prolonged periods of southward Bz
reaching -8 nT on
12 July and -6 nT on 14 July resulted in periods
of G1 (Minor) storm levels
on 12 July and active periods on 14 July.
The rest of the period was at quiet
to unsettled levels with quiet
conditions observed on 17 July.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 18 JULY - 13 AUGUST
2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance
for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 18-24 July as Regions
2565
and 2567 transit across the visible disk. Very low levels are
expected for 25
Juy-04 August. A return to low levels with a chance
for M-class flaring is
expected for 05-13 August with the return of
Regions 2565 and 2567.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at
high levels on 18-19, 23-27 July, and again on
05-13 August due to recurrent
CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate
levels are expected for the remaining
forecast period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
unsettled to active
levels on 19-20, 22-24, 28, 30 July and on 03-08, 10-11
August with
G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 03-04 and 08 August due
to
recurrent CH HSS activity. A CME associated with the 17
July
long-duration C1 flare is likely to arrive early on 21 July
causing
unsettled to active levels.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 18 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-07-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jul 18 105
5 2
2016 Jul 19 105 8 3
2016 Jul 20
105 12 4
2016 Jul 21 100 15 4
2016
Jul 22 100 12 4
2016 Jul 23 95
12 4
2016 Jul 24 90 10 3
2016 Jul 25
80 5 2
2016 Jul 26 75 5 2
2016
Jul 27 70 5 2
2016 Jul 28 70
8 3
2016 Jul 29 70 9 3
2016 Jul 30
70 8 3
2016 Jul 31 70 8 3
2016
Aug 01 70 5 2
2016 Aug 02 70
5 2
2016 Aug 03 70 20 5
2016 Aug 04
70 20 5
2016 Aug 05 80 15 4
2016
Aug 06 95 10 3
2016 Aug 07 105
10 3
2016 Aug 08 105 20 5
2016 Aug 09
105 8 3
2016 Aug 10 105 12 4
2016
Aug 11 105 10 3
2016 Aug 12 105
8 3
2016 Aug 13 105 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
