venerdì 8 gennaio 2016

Solar activity forecast for the period January 8 - 14, 2016

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.0-B7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-125 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-85

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 8 - 14, 2016

Quiet: Jan 8 to Jan 9 and Jan 13 to Jan 14
Quiet to unsettled: Jan 10 and 12
Unsettled to active: Jan 11
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagntic activity summary:

Next day, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. During the coming
weekend, at most quiet conditions are probable. Starting the next week, an
active episode is possible but the local K-index should not exceed  K=4.


Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 8 - February 3, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on January (18 - 19), 24 - 26
mostly quiet on January (15 - 17), 23, 31
quiet to unsettled on January 8 - 9, 12 - 14, 20 - 22, 29 - 30, February 3
quiet to active on January 11, 27 - 28, February 1 - 2
active to disturbed on January 10

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on January 10 - 11, 27 - 28


Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions remains reduced.
- Parenthesis means probability of activity enhancement.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz