Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 11 - 17 January 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to low
levels. Very low
conditions were observed on 11-14 January and again on
16-17
January. Low levels occurred on 15 January with a few weak
C-class
flares observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190
on
10 Jan). A 14 degree long filament, centered near S30W03,
erupted
between 14/1803-2048 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection
(CME)
was visible in SOHO LASCO imagery beginning at 14/2324
UTC.
Analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, determined
a
potential glancing blow could impact Earth early on 19 Jan.
No
proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the
summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 11-14
January at
quiet to active levels due to effects from a negative
polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions
persisted
on 15-17 January. ACE satellite parameters indicated a maximum
wind
speed reading of 662 km/s at 12/0711 UTC. By period's end,
wind
speeds had declined to about 330 km/s. Total field (Bt) reached
a
maximum reading of 10 nT late on the 10th and generally ranged
between
3-7 nT for a majority of the period. The Bz component varied
between +/- 7 nT
from late on the 11th through early on the 13th.
Through the remainder of the
period, Bz did not vary much beyond +/-
4 nT. The phi angle was in a
predominately negative (towards)
orientation through midday on 16 January
when a rotation to a more
positive (away) sector was observed.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 18 JAN - 13 FEB
2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a
chance
for C-class flares throughout the outlook period.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 18,
23-26, 29-31 January, 01-06 and
09-13 February. Normal to moderate levels are
expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
periods on 18-19 January
due to possible glancing blow effects from
the 14 Jan CME. Unsettled to
active levels are expected on 22-23,
28-29 January, 02-03 and 07-09 February
due to recurrent CH HSS
effects. Predominately quiet levels are expected for
the remainder
of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-01-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jan 18 100
8 3
2016 Jan 19 95 15 4
2016 Jan 20
95 10 3
2016 Jan 21 95 8 3
2016
Jan 22 95 12 4
2016 Jan 23 100
8 3
2016 Jan 24 100 5 2
2016 Jan 25
100 5 2
2016 Jan 26 105 5 2
2016
Jan 27 105 5 2
2016 Jan 28 105
18 5
2016 Jan 29 105 12 4
2016 Jan 30
100 8 3
2016 Jan 31 105 5 2
2016
Feb 01 110 5 2
2016 Feb 02 110
15 4
2016 Feb 03 110 12 4
2016 Feb 04
110 8 3
2016 Feb 05 105 5 2
2016
Feb 06 105 5 2
2016 Feb 07 105
12 4
2016 Feb 08 105 12 4
2016 Feb 09
105 10 3
2016 Feb 10 105 8 3
2016
Feb 11 105 5 2
2016 Feb 12 100
5 2
2016 Feb 13 100 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
SWPC to Transfer Operations to its back-up site January 19-21,
2016
SWPC will be utilizing its back-up processing site starting at 11 am
EST (16 UTC) on January 19, 2016 and remaining there until approximately 1 pm
EST (18 UTC) on January 21, 2016. There will be brief outages of SWPC data for
upwards of one hour around 11 am EST (16 UTC) on both January 19 and January 21,
2016.
During the period of time SWPC is running operations from its
backup site, updated Ionosonde data on the SWPC ftp server will not be
available. In addition, users will be unable to create new Product Subscription
Service (PSS) accounts, or modify their existing accounts, during this period of
time. Alerts from our PSS system for existing accounts will not be impacted
except for the brief periods of time mentioned above (SWPC Jan 15 via DXLD)
