:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 26 0558 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 19 - 25 October 2015
Solar activity reached low levels. C-class
flares were observed on
19-22 and 24 Oct. Region 2436 (N09, L=112, class/area
Ekc/260 on 19
Oct) produced a majority of the activity this period with 13
C-class
flares. Regions 2434 (S10, L=164, class/area Hax/230 on 19 Oct)
and
2437 (S20, L=99, class/area Cao/20 on 21 Oct) also produced a
few
C-class flares. A partial halo CME associated with a long duration
C4
flare originating from Region 2434 erupted off of the
southwestern portion of
the disk on 22 October.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became
slightly enhanced late on
22 October through midday on 23 October due to a
long duration C4
flare from Region 2434. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
breifly
reachex a peak of 1.1 pfu at 22/2305 UTC but began a return
to
background levels shortly thereafter.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 20 October with
moderate levels recorded on 19, 21-25
October. The high levels were due to an
enhanced solar wind
envirornment caused by coronal hole high speed streams
(CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Quiet
levels were observed on 19 October and quiet to unsettled
levels
were observed on 20, 22-25 October under nominal solar
wind
conditions. Quiet to active levels were observed on 21 October as
an
equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moved into a
geoeffective
position. Wind speed increased to a peak of near 480 km/s by
about
21/1900 UTC, total field strength peaked at 13 nT while the
Bz
component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT at about
21/1130
UTC. The CME from 2434 that occurred on 22 October arrived
at the ACE
spacecraft on 24 October at 1828 UTC. The solar wind
became enhanced with the
shock passage but only unsettled levels
were observed.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 26 OCT - 21 NOV 2015
Solar activity is
expected to be at low levels throughout the
outlook period.
No proton
events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels on 26 - 31 October.
Moderate to high levels are expected on 01-13
November as a series
of coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs) become
geoeffective
enhancing the solar wind environment. Normal to moderate levels
are
expected from 14 - 21 November.
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 03-04 November
with G1 (Minor) storm
levels expected on 05, 08-10, and 14 November, all due
to the
influence of recurrent CH HSSs. Active field conditions are
expected
on 29 October, 06-07, 13, and 17 November with only quiet
to
unsettled levels expected throughout the remainder of the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2015 Oct 26 0558 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-10-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Oct 26 105
10 3
2015 Oct 27 105 5 2
2015 Oct 28
105 8 3
2015 Oct 29 100 12 4
2015
Oct 30 100 10 3
2015 Oct 31 95
10 3
2015 Nov 01 95 8 3
2015 Nov 02
90 5 2
2015 Nov 03 85 50 6
2015
Nov 04 85 40 6
2015 Nov 05 85
25 5
2015 Nov 06 85 12 4
2015 Nov 07
85 12 4
2015 Nov 08 85 20 5
2015
Nov 09 90 25 5
2015 Nov 10 95
20 5
2015 Nov 11 95 10 3
2015 Nov 12
100 8 3
2015 Nov 13 105 12 4
2015
Nov 14 110 20 5
2015 Nov 15 115
5 2
2015 Nov 16 115 8 3
2015 Nov 17
120 12 4
2015 Nov 18 115 5 2
2015
Nov 19 110 5 2
2015 Nov 20 105
5 2
2015 Nov 21 105 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
