:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 12 0140 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 05 - 11 October 2015
Solar activity was at very low levels
throughout much of the period
(05-10 Oct) with only B-class flare activity
observed. Solar
activity increased to low levels on 11 Oct due to a
long-duration C3
flare at 11/2229 UTC from an unnumbered region behind
the
southeastern limb. The seven numbered active regions on the
visible
disk throughout the week were generally stable, simple,
and
unproductive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were
observed
this period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels on 09, 11 Oct with high levels
observed on 05-06,
08, and 10 Oct, all due to an enhanced solar wind
environment and
increased geomagnetic activity caused by a coronal hole high
speed
stream (CH HSS). Moderate flux levels were observed on 07 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm
levels on 05 Oct and quiet to active levels on 06 Oct due to
brief
periods of southward Bz in addition to isolated periods
of
substorming. The influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH
HSS
caused active to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on 07
Oct,
active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 08 Oct,
and
unsettled to active conditions on 09 Oct. Quiet to active
field
conditions were observed on 10-11 Oct due to waning CH HSS
effects,
an enhanced solar wind environment, and localized substorming.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 12 OCTOBER-07 NOVEMBER
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
period
with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
Radio
Blackouts) for 16-29 Oct due to the return of Region 2422
(S20,
L=102) which produced a total of 18 M-class flares last rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be
high levels on 12-15, 18-24 Oct, and 01-02, 04-07
Nov. Moderate flux levels
are expected on 16-17, 25, and 27-28 Oct
with normal levels expected on 26,
29-31 Oct, and 03 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1
(Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 12, 15-16 Oct, and 03 Nov due to the
influence of
multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Active
levels are anticipated on 13-14, 17, 29 Oct, and 04-05 Nov. Quiet
to
unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of
the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 12 0140 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-10-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Oct 12 85
20 5
2015 Oct 13 90 15 4
2015 Oct 14
90 18 4
2015 Oct 15 90 20 5
2015
Oct 16 100 20 5
2015 Oct 17 110
15 4
2015 Oct 18 110 8 3
2015 Oct 19
110 8 3
2015 Oct 20 110 8 3
2015
Oct 21 110 8 3
2015 Oct 22 120
8 3
2015 Oct 23 120 5 2
2015 Oct 24
120 5 2
2015 Oct 25 125 5 2
2015
Oct 26 125 5 2
2015 Oct 27 130
5 2
2015 Oct 28 120 8 3
2015 Oct 29
110 12 4
2015 Oct 30 100 10 3
2015
Oct 31 90 8 3
2015 Nov 01 85
8 3
2015 Nov 02 80 8 3
2015 Nov 03
80 20 5
2015 Nov 04 80 15 4
2015
Nov 05 80 15 4
2015 Nov 06 80
12 3
2015 Nov 07 85 8 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
