:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 0550 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 24 - 30 October 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels
during the period. The two
numbered regions on the visible disk were Region
2603 (N13, L=340,
class/area Dao/080 on 26 October) and 2604 (N07, L=261,
class/area
Bxo/010 on 29 October). Other activity included a slow
moving
coronal mass ejection (CME) directed mostly south of the
ecliptic
beginning at 30/1012 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The source of
the
CME was unclear and may be associated with magnetic re-connection
near
S30E15. Preliminary analysis indicated a possible weak glancing
blow arrival
around midday on 04 November. Further analysis is
currently underway.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate
levels on 24-25 October and reached high levels from 26-30
October. The
largest flux value of the period was 47,726 pfu
observed at 27/1530 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong)
storm
levels. The period started off under the waning influence of a
weak
isolated positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS).
Solar wind speeds were mostly in the 380 km/s to 430 km/s range
with
total field values between 5 nT and 10 nT and prolonged periods
of
southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
active
levels on 24 October. Early on 25 October, total field began to
rise
to a maximum of 21 nT at 25/1016 UTC while the Bz component
deflected
southward to -17 nT indicating the onset of a co-rotating
interaction region.
This was followed by a rise in solar wind speed
to around 750-830 km/s as a
large, polar-connected, positive
polarity CH HSS moved into geoeffective
position. Coronal hole
influence declined to the 530-680 km/s by midday on 27
October and
remained there until the end of the period. The geomagnetic
field
responded with active to G3 (Strong) storm levels on 25
October,
active to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 26 October, unsettled to
G1
(Minor) storm levels on 27 and 29 October, unsettled to active
levels
on 28 October, and quiet to active levels on 30 October.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 31 OCTOBER-26 NOVEMBER 2016
Solar activity
is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at
moderate levels with high levels likely from 31
October-06 November, 12-19
November, and again from 22-26 November
due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels from 31 October-01 November, 11-15, and 19-26 November
with
G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 13, 21-23, and 25 November and
G2
(Moderate) storm levels likely on 21-22 November due to recurrent
CH
HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-10-31
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 31 80
15 4
2016 Nov 01 80 12 4
2016 Nov 02
80 8 3
2016 Nov 03 78 8 3
2016
Nov 04 82 8 3
2016 Nov 05 82
5 2
2016 Nov 06 82 8 3
2016 Nov 07
80 5 2
2016 Nov 08 80 5 2
2016
Nov 09 78 5 2
2016 Nov 10 78
5 2
2016 Nov 11 80 10 3
2016 Nov 12
80 15 4
2016 Nov 13 78 18 5
2016
Nov 14 75 10 3
2016 Nov 15 73
8 3
2016 Nov 16 73 5 2
2016 Nov 17
78 5 2
2016 Nov 18 78 5 2
2016
Nov 19 77 8 3
2016 Nov 20 75
15 4
2016 Nov 21 78 54 6
2016 Nov 22
78 42 6
2016 Nov 23 80 24 5
2016
Nov 24 80 18 4
(SWPC via DXLD)
