:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 17 0400 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 10 - 16 October 2016
Solar activity was low very low on 10-11
Oct and 15-16 Oct. Activity
was at low levels on 12-14 Oct, with the
strongest flare, a C1 at
13/2105 UTC, occurring from around the east limb.
Region 2599 (S15,
L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) was the only numbered
region to
produce a C-class flare; a C1/Sf at 12/1155 UTC. On 14 Oct,
two
filament eruptions were observed in GONG and SDO/AIA imagery in the
NE
quadrant. Around 14/1500 UTC, a five degree long filament erupted
along a
channel centered near N01E30. Later, around 14/2230 UTC, a
ten degree long
filament erupted along a channel centered near
N09E45. No associated CME
signatures were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background levels on
13-14 Oct. Moderate levels were observed
on 11-12 Oct. High levels were
reached on 10 Oct, and 14-16 Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity during the
reporting period ranged from
quiet to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels. Quiet
to unsettled levels
were observed on 10 Oct and tapered down to quiet levels
until late
on 12 Oct, when unsettled levels were observed from the onset of
the
08 Oct CME. Unsettled to levels continued into 13 Oct, increasing
to
G2 (Moderate) storm levels late on 13 Oct and into early on 14
Oct.
Minor (G1-Minor) storm levels gave way to unsettled and then
quiet
conditions as 14 Oct progressed. Quiet to unsettled levels
persisted
over 15-16 Oct, increasing to G1 (Minor) storm levels once
again,
late on 16 Oct, in response to the onset of a negative polarity
CH
HSS.
The solar wind environment was at near-background levels from
10-12
Oct. Late on 12 Oct, an enhancement was observed after 12/2120
UTC,
marking the arrival of a CME from a filament eruption centered
near
N38E40 on 08 Oct. During the sheath, a moderate increase in
solar
wind speed was observed, increasing from an ambient 370 km/s to
an
enhanced 400-445 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from
2-10
nT. The Bz component displayed a primarily northward
orientation. Around
13/0520 UTC, enhancements in the solar wind
suggested the transitions from
the sheath to the CME driver. Density
dropped and total magnetic field
strength steadily increased to a
peak of 24 nT around 13/2200 UTC. The Bz
component rotated in a
sustained far southward orientation, with a slow
rotation northward
beginning around 13/2200 UTC. Solar wind speeds were
relatively
modest, ranging from around 380-450 km/s during the event.
Solar
wind parameters slowly declined towards background
conditions
through 15 Oct. Early on 16 Oct, the onset of a negative polarity
CH
HSS was observed. Solar wind speeds steadily increased, reaching
peak
wind speeds around 750 km/s as the reporting period ended.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 17 OCTOBER-12 NOVEMBER 2016
Solar activity
is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity
throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach moderate levels on 21-23 Oct and
7-11 Nov; high
levels on 17-20 Oct, 25-26, 30 Oct - 06 Nov, and 12 Nov; very
high
levels on 27-29 Oct. Enhancement in the 2 MeV electron flux
is
anticipated as a result of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach major
storm
(G2-Moderate) levels on 17 Oct due to elevated winds from
the
influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Conditions are
expected
to decrease to active by 18 Oct, and quiet to unsettled
conditions on 19 Oct,
as the negative polarity CH HSS wanes. Active
conditions are again likely on
22 Oct with the onset of recurrent,
positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are
forecast to reach minor
(G1-Minor) storm levels on 23 Oct and G2 storm levels
from 24-26 Oct
as solar wind speeds expected to climb. G1 storm conditions
are
likely from 27-31 Oct, and active conditions by 01 Nov, as the CH
HSS
slowly subsides. Quiet conditions are likely from 02-10 Nov
under an ambient
solar wind regime. Unsettled conditions on 11 Nov
are likely to give way to
G1 storm conditions on 12 Nov as another
negative polarity CH HSS is
anticipated to enhance the near-Earth
space environment.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 17 0400
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-10-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 17 80
26 6
2016 Oct 18 80 12 4
2016 Oct 19
75 8 3
2016 Oct 20 75 5 2
2016
Oct 21 75 5 2
2016 Oct 22 75
12 4
2016 Oct 23 75 22 5
2016 Oct 24
70 35 6
2016 Oct 25 70 35 6
2016
Oct 26 70 35 6
2016 Oct 27 75
20 5
2016 Oct 28 75 15 5
2016 Oct 29
75 15 5
2016 Oct 30 80 15 5
2016
Oct 31 85 25 5
2016 Nov 01 85
12 4
2016 Nov 02 85 5 2
2016 Nov 03
85 5 2
2016 Nov 04 85 5 2
2016
Nov 05 85 5 2
2016 Nov 06 90
8 3
2016 Nov 07 90 5 2
2016 Nov 08
90 5 2
2016 Nov 09 85 5 2
2016
Nov 10 85 5 2
2016 Nov 11 85
10 3
2016 Nov 12 80 24 5
(SWPC via
DXLD)
