:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 17 - 23 October 2016
Solar activity was very low to low with a
single C-class flare
observed on 17 Oct. At 17/0038 UTC, a C4 flare was
observed from
Region 2599 (S15, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) which
had
rotated around the southwest limb on 15 Oct. A nine degree
long
filament, centered near N26W02, was observed erupting in SDO/AIA
304
and GONG imagery at about 20/1300 UTC. A slow-moving, faint CME
was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery with possible effects observed on
23
October.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
ranged
from normal to very high levels. On 18 Oct very high levels
were
observed, with a peak level of 52,137 pfu. High levels were
observed
on 17 Oct and 19-22 Oct. Normal to high levels were observed on
23
Oct.
Geomagnetic field activity during the reporting period ranged
from
quiet to active levels. Quiet to active conditions were observed
on
17 Oct and tapered into quiet to unsettled levels through 19 Oct due
to
the waning effects of a CH HSS. Quiet conditions were observed
from 20-22 Oct
under an ambient solar wind regime. Quiet to
unsettled conditions were noted
23-24 Oct due to a SSBC and initial
CH HSS effects.
The solar wind
environment was above background levels on 17 Oct
under the influence of a CH
HSS with wind speeds between 700-800
km/s. Wind speeds gradually tapered to
background conditions on
18-19 Oct. Winds increased again to around 450 km/s
and minor
enhancements to total field were observed on 23 Oct due to a
SSBC
and weak CH HSS effects.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 24 OCTOBER-19 NOVEMBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be
very low with a chance for C-class
activity throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach
high levels on 24-26 Oct, 30 Oct-6 Nov, and 12-19
Nov and very high levels
27-29 Oct. Normal to moderate levels are
expected 7-11 Nov. Enhancement in
the 2 MeV electron flux is due to
the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH
HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach major storm
levels
(G2-Moderate) on 24-26 Oct, and minor storm levels (G1-Minor)
on
27-29 Oct, due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Active
conditions are likely to linger through 01 Nov as effects of the
CH
HSS wane. Thereafter, conditions are expected to be predominately
quiet
with isolated unsettled periods through 10 Nov. Active
conditions are likely
on 12 Nov, increasing to G1 storm conditions
on 13 Nov, under the influence
of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Conditions are likely to decrease to unsettled
from 14-15 Nov as CH
HSS effects wane. Quiet conditions are then expected on
16-18 Nov,
increasing to unsettled by 19 Nov with the onset of another
positive
polarity CH HSS.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-10-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 24 76
32 6
2016 Oct 25 74 44 6
2016 Oct 26
73 40 6
2016 Oct 27 71 22 5
2016
Oct 28 70 18 5
2016 Oct 29 71
18 5
2016 Oct 30 77 14 4
2016 Oct 31
80 20 5
2016 Nov 01 80 12 4
2016
Nov 02 80 5 2
2016 Nov 03 80
5 2
2016 Nov 04 80 5 2
2016 Nov 05
80 5 2
2016 Nov 06 80 8 3
2016
Nov 07 78 5 2
2016 Nov 08 78
5 2
2016 Nov 09 78 5 2
2016 Nov 10
78 5 2
2016 Nov 11 75 10 3
2016
Nov 12 75 15 4
2016 Nov 13 73
18 5
2016 Nov 14 73 10 3
2016 Nov 15
73 8 3
2016 Nov 16 73 5 2
2016
Nov 17 75 5 2
2016 Nov 18 75
5 2
2016 Nov 19 75 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
