:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 10 0105 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 03 - 09 October 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels with
a few background flares
observed from Regions 2598 (N14, L=174, class/area
Dai/140 on 07
Oct), 2599 (S14, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) and 2600
(N13,
L=105, class/area Cso/110 on 09 Oct). On 08 Oct,
between
08/1500-1700 UTC, a 10 degree long filament erupted in the
NE
quadrant centered near N38E40. A slow-moving, asymmetric,
partial-halo
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery, first visible at
09/0048 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels
during the entire summary period. A maximum of 32,138
pfu was observed at
03/1640 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity was highlighted by mostly
unsettled to
active levels on 03-05 Oct. An isolated minor storm
(G1-Minor)
period was observed early on 04 Oct. Mostly quiet levels
were
observed from 04-09 Oct with isolated unsettled and active
periods
were observed early on 07 and 08 Oct, respectively. The
enhanced
geomagnetic activity was due to high speed winds from a
recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole. Some further enhancement
occurred
early on 04 Oct due to CME effects from an eruptive
filament
observed early on 01 Oct.
The solar wind environment began
the period at about 500 km/s,
increased to near 600 km/s midday on 04 Oct and
slowly decreased to
end the period at about 370 km/s. Total field generally
ranged from
2-6 nT with a peak of 10 nt observed midday on 04 Oct. The
Bz
component was mostly variable between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in
a
general positive orientation throughout the period.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 10 OCTOBER-5 NOVEMBER 2016
Solar activity
is expected to be at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flare activity
throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 10-11, 16-18, 24-26,
30-31 Oct and
01-06 Nov increasing to very high levels on 27-29 Oct. This is
due
to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal
to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 11-18, 23-31 Oct and 01 Nov. G1 (Minor) field activity
is
possible on 13-15, 17 and 23-31 Oct with G2 (Moderate) levels
possible
on 24-26 Oct. This activity is due to the anticipated
influence of multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. Additional enhancement to
the field is expected on 13-14
Oct due to CME effects from the 08
Oct filament eruption. Generally quiet to
unsettled conditions are
expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016
Oct 10 0105 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather
Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-10-10
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 10 105
5 2
2016 Oct 11 105 8 3
2016 Oct 12
110 8 3
2016 Oct 13 110 18 5
2016
Oct 14 105 18 5
2016 Oct 15 100
15 5
2016 Oct 16 95 12 4
2016 Oct 17
95 20 5
2016 Oct 18 95 8 3
2016
Oct 19 90 5 2
2016 Oct 20 90
5 2
2016 Oct 21 90 5 2
2016 Oct 22
85 5 2
2016 Oct 23 85 20 5
2016
Oct 24 85 35 6
2016 Oct 25 85
35 6
2016 Oct 26 85 35 6
2016 Oct 27
80 20 5
2016 Oct 28 80 15 5
2016
Oct 29 80 15 5
2016 Oct 30 90
15 5
2016 Oct 31 95 25 5
2016 Nov 01
100 12 4
2016 Nov 02 100 5 2
2016
Nov 03 105 5 2
2016 Nov 04 105
5 2
2016 Nov 05 105 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
