Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 7, 2016
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA
Over the past week (September 29 through October 5), relative to the
previous seven days the average daily sunspot number declined 9
points to 20.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 81.4 to
86.7. Average daily planetary A index increased from 19.7 to 21.4,
and average mid-latitude A index (measured in Virginia) increased
from 12.3 to 15.1.
Hey, think that was bad? At University of Alaska's magnetometer
which supplies us with the College A Index (see
http://bit.ly/2dNZSEu) , the number went to 73 on September 29, with
the average of the week at 35.9.
Predicted solar flux from the October 6, 2016 forecast shows 102 on
October 7-8, 105 on October 9, 102 on October 10-12, 100 on October
13, 90 on October 14, 95 on Oc tober 15-18, 90 on October 19-21, 85
on October 22-26, 80 On October 27-31, 85 on November 1-2, 90 on
November 3-10, 95 on November 11-14 and 90 on November 15-17.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 7-12, then 8, 5, 8, 10,
20 and 8 on O ctober 13-18, 5 on October 19-22, 20 on October 23, 35
on October 24-26, then 20, 15, 15, 12, 15 and 10 on October 27
through November 1, 5 on November 2-10, then 10, 20 and 8 on
November 11-14, and 5 on November 15-18.
OK1MGW sent this:< br style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", "Segoe UI", Helvetica, Arial, "Lucida Grande", sans-serif; font-size: 13px;" id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1475868985342_5328">
"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 7-November 2, 2016
"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on October 7-8, 13-14, 19-20
Mostly quiet on October 9-10, 12,19, November 1-2
Quiet to unsettled on October 11, 15-16, 21
Quiet to active on October 17-18, 22-23, 28-31
Active to disturbed on October 24-27
"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on
October 16-18, 22-30."
On October 6, NASA released an updated prediction for 10.7 cm solar
flux for the remainder of Cycle 24:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.jpg
Accompanying text is at
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml
The average sunspot number for July, August and September was 40.
The 3-month moving averages of daily sunspot numbers for this year,
for periods ending in February through September were 53.5, 49,
45.3, 43.1, 35.4, 33, 33.5 and 40.
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