venerdì 26 febbraio 2016

Solar activity forecast for the period February 26 - March 3, 2016

Solar activity forecast for the period February 26 - March 3, 2016

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A9.0-B5.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 80-115 f.u.
Events: class C (0-10/day), class M (0-2/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 10-80

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 26 - March 3, 2016

Quiet: Feb 29 to Mar 01
Unsettled: Feb 26 - 28
Active: Mar 2 - 3
Minor storm: possible Mar 2 - 3
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagntic activity summary:
Next three days, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions because of low
solar wind velocity.
The space weather can change at the start of March when active conditions
are possible. The end of predicted week can be accompanied by minor storm
event but, in our latitudes, we expect more likely an active episode.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 26 - March 23, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on February 26, March 11 - 12, 18, 20,
mostly quiet on March 1 - 2, 13, 19, 21, 23
quiet to unsettled on February 27, March 8 - 9, 22
quiet to active on February 28 - 29, March 3 - 5, 7, 10, 14, 17
active to disturbed on March 6, 15 - 16

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on February (29,)
March (1 -) 3, 14 - 17

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions is reduced yet again and still.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz