:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0222 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly
Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity
01 - 07 February 2016
Solar activity was at low levels
throughout the entire period.
Several regions produced low level C-class
events, the largest a
C5/Sf at 04/1822 UTC from Region 2494 (S11, L=162,
class/area
Dki/270 on 07 Feb). A filament eruption observed beginning
on
05/1939 UTC near S19W28 was associated with a CME that is
anticipated
to be a glancing blow midday on 09 Feb. Several other
small filament
eruptions occurred but none were expected to be
geoeffective.
No
proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity began the week at quiet to
unsettled
levels. Active to minor storm conditions were observed early on
03
Feb due to a co-rotating interactive region (CIR) followed by the
onset
of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Quiet to
unsettled conditions were observed during largely
nominal solar wind
conditions from 04-07 Feb, with the exception of
an isolated active period on
07 Feb due to prolonged negative Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity
08 February - 05 March 2016
Solar activity is expected to be
at low levels throughout the
forecast period.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels
possible from 12-16 Feb and 19-23 Feb following subsequent CH
HSS
events.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active
levels with isolated minor storm periods on 08 Feb due to
prolonged
negative Bz and negative polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to
active
conditions are likely to continue into 09 Feb as effects
continue
along with a possible glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME. Quiet
to
unsettled conditions are expected from 10-12 Feb as a
recurrent
positive polarity HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Mostly
quiet conditions are expected from 13-16 Feb. Quiet to
unsettled
conditions are expected from 17-19 Feb with active periods
possible
on 18 Feb due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity
HSS.
Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 20-29 Feb. Quiet
to
unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active periods
possible
on 01-03 Mar as another positive polarity CH HSS becomes
geoeffective. Quiet
conditions are expected to close out the
forecast period.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 0222
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-08
#
# UTC
Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp
Index
2016 Feb 08 115 18 5
2016 Feb 09
115 18 4
2016 Feb 10 118 8 3
2016
Feb 11 115 10 3
2016 Feb 12 112
10 3
2016 Feb 13 110 5 2
2016 Feb 14
110 5 2
2016 Feb 15 110 5 2
2016
Feb 16 110 5 2
2016 Feb 17 112
10 3
2016 Feb 18 112 15 4
2016 Feb 19
115 12 4
2016 Feb 20 110 8 3
2016
Feb 21 115 5 2
2016 Feb 22 115
5 2
2016 Feb 23 115 5 2
2016 Feb 24
110 5 2
2016 Feb 25 112 5 2
2016
Feb 26 115 5 2
2016 Feb 27 115
5 2
2016 Feb 28 112 5 2
2016 Feb 29
112 5 2
2016 Mar 01 110 15 3
2016
Mar 02 105 10 3
2016 Mar 03 100
12 3
2016 Mar 04 105 8 3
2016 Mar 05
100 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)
