venerdì 12 febbraio 2016

Solar activity forecast for the period February 12 - 18, 2016

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.0-B7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-125 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-5/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-90

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 12 - 18, 2016

Quiet: Feb 14 to Feb 16
Unsettled: Feb 12 - 13
Active: possible Feb 17 - 18
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagntic activity summary:
Next days, we expect unsetteld conditions (Feb 12-12). Then, the local
geomagnetic field should turn to more quiet, between Feb 14 - 16, we
expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions.
At the end of forecasted week, the geomagnetic activity can increase to
unsettled with possible active period.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 12 - March 8, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on February 16, 21 - 22, 25 - 26, 28 - 29, March 4 - 5
mostly quiet on February 14 - 15, 23 - 24
quiet to unsettled on  February 12, 19 - 20, 27, March 2, 8
quiet to active on February 13, 18, March 1, 3, 7
active to disturbed on February 17, March 6

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on February (15,)
17 - 21, (29,) March 1 - 3

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions is reduced yet again and still.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH, Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz (via Dario Monferini, DXLD)