venerdì 19 febbraio 2016

Solar activity forecast for the period February 19 - 25, 2016

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.0-B5.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 85-120 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-3/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-85

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 19 - 25, 2016

Quiet: Feb 22 to Feb 25
Unsettled: Feb 19 - 21
Active: possible about Feb 21
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagntic activity summary:
Last days, the K-index has at the Budkov observatory level 5 (minor storm)
at the end of Feb 16. The minor storm episode was only single with
duration about 1 hour. The surroundings of the minor storm episode was at
active level (local K-index . 4). Since Feb 17, the activity has decreased
to unsettled level.
Next days, we expect unsettled level behaviour till the Sunday, Feb 21.
Then, between Feb 21 and 25, we expect at most quiet conditions, or quiet
to unsettled, respectively.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 19 - March 16, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on February 22 - 25
mostly quiet on February 21, 26
quiet to unsettled on February 19 - 20, 27 - 28, March 2, 4, 7 - 8, 11 - 12
quiet to active on February 29, March 1, 3, 5 - 6, 9 - 10, 13, 16
active to disturbed on February 14 - 15

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on February 29, March 1, 5
- 6, 9 - 10, 13 - 16


Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz