:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 15 0238 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly
Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08
- 14 February 2016
Solar activity was low from 08-11 Feb. The largest
C-class event
during that period was a C8/1f observed at 11/2103 UTC from
Region
2497 (N13, L=087, class/area Eac/250 on 12 Feb) with associated
Type
II (est. speed 483 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A CME was
visible
following this event and is anticipated to arrive at Earth early
on
15 Feb. Solar activity was moderate from 12-14 Feb with Region
2497
producing an M1 flare each day. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
normal to moderate levels during the period.
Geomagnetic field
activity began the week at minor storm levels due
to effects from a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a CH
HSS. Predominately quiet
to unsettled levels were observed for the
remainder of the period with
isolated active periods on 09, 11 and
12 Feb associated with extended periods
of negative Bz.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 15
FEBRUARY-12 MARCH 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to
low levels with a
chance for M-class flares from 15-17 Feb. Activity is
expected to
decrease to very low levels with only a chance for C-class
flares
from 18-29 Feb as Region 2497 moves beyond the west limb. Low
levels
are anticipated once again on 01-12 Mar as well as a chance
for
M-class flares with the return of Region 2497.
A slight chance
for a proton event exists at geosynchronous orbit
from 15-17 Feb due to the
flare potential and position of Region
2497.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels for the majority of the
period. High levels are likely on 18-20 Feb
following effects from a
CME and a subsequent CH HSS.
Geomagnetic
field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels
on 15 Feb due to
effects from the 11 Feb CME. Quiet to active
conditions are expected on 16
Feb as CME effects subside. Minor
storm conditions are likely again on 17 Feb
as a recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Quiet to
unsettled conditions
are expected with isolated active periods possible on
18-20 Feb as
CH HSS effects continue. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on
21-29 Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 01-03
Mar
due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly
quiet
conditions are expected for the remainder of the period
with
unsettled to active periods possible on 06-07 Mar and 11 Mar as
two
sequential small recurrent coronal holes affect the field.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016
Feb 15 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather
Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-15
#
# UTC
Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp
Index
2016 Feb 15 108 27 5
2016 Feb 16
108 12 4
2016 Feb 17 105 20 5
2016
Feb 18 103 12 4
2016 Feb 19 106
10 3
2016 Feb 20 107 8 3
2016 Feb 21
110 5 2
2016 Feb 22 115 5 2
2016
Feb 23 115 5 2
2016 Feb 24 115
5 2
2016 Feb 25 115 5 2
2016 Feb 26
115 5 2
2016 Feb 27 115 5 2
2016
Feb 28 115 5 2
2016 Feb 29 118
5 2
2016 Mar 01 120 15 4
2016 Mar 02
120 10 3
2016 Mar 03 120 12 4
2016
Mar 04 115 8 3
2016 Mar 05 115
5 2
2016 Mar 06 110 15 4
2016 Mar 07
110 10 4
2016 Mar 08 105 8 3
2016
Mar 09 105 5 2
2016 Mar 10 105
5 2
2016 Mar 11 105 8 3
2016 Mar 12
105 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)
