:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly
Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22
- 28 February 2016
Solar activity reached low levels with only C-class
flare activity
observed this period. Region 2506 (S05, L=224,
class/area=110/Dai o
28 Feb) was responsible for nearly all flare activity
this period
including three low-level C-class flares, the largest of which
was a
C3/Sf flare at 0500 UTC on 27 Feb. A filament eruption centered
near
S16E19 (vicinity of Region 2506) was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery
between 0030-0130 UTC on 18 Feb but no associated coronal
mass
ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO coronagraph imagery
suggesting
the bulk of the plasma was reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed this period.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 22-24 and 28 Feb with moderate
levels observed
throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic
field activity briefly reached unsettled levels on 23-24
and 26 Feb with
quiet conditions observed throughout the remainder
of the period under a
nominal solar wind regime.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 29
FEBRUARY - 26 MARCH 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a
chance for C-class
flares on 29 Feb and 15-26 Mar. Solar activity is expected
to
increase to low levels with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts) on 01-14 Mar due to the return
of
old Region 2497 (N12, L=240) which produced four M-class flares
last
rotation.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit
barring any
significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on
15-22 Mar, moderate levels on
04-05, 07-08, 13-14, and 23-26 Mar, and at
normal levels for the
remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 14-16
Mar and active levels on 01, 06,
and 17 Mar due to the effects of multiple
recurrent coronal hole
high speed streams (CH HSSs). Quiet or quiet to
unsettled
geomagnetic field conditions under a nominal solar wind regime
are
expected for the remainder of the period.
:Product: 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Feb 29 0233 UTC
# Prepared by
the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space
Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-02-29
#
# UTC
Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp
Index
2016 Feb 29 95 5 2
2016 Mar 01
105 15 4
2016 Mar 02 110 12 3
2016
Mar 03 115 10 3
2016 Mar 04 115
10 3
2016 Mar 05 110 8 3
2016 Mar 06
110 15 4
2016 Mar 07 105 10 3
2016
Mar 08 105 8 3
2016 Mar 09 105
5 2
2016 Mar 10 105 5 2
2016 Mar 11
105 8 3
2016 Mar 12 105 5 2
2016
Mar 13 105 12 3
2016 Mar 14 100
30 5
2016 Mar 15 100 30 5
2016 Mar 16
95 30 5
2016 Mar 17 95 15 4
2016
Mar 18 95 8 3
2016 Mar 19 95
5 2
2016 Mar 20 95 5 2
2016 Mar 21
90 5 2
2016 Mar 22 90 5 2
2016
Mar 23 90 5 2
2016 Mar 24 90
5 2
2016 Mar 25 90 5 2
2016 Mar 26
90 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)
