:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 04 - 10 January 2016
Solar activity was at very low to low
levels. Very low activity was
observed on 04-05 January and 08-10 January
while isolated low
activity occured on 06-07 January. A pair of C1 x-ray
events were
observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10
Jan)
on 06/1137 UTC and 07/0617 UTC, respectively. No
Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed during the summary
period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was
at predominately quiet levels on
04-05 January and 08-10 January. On 06
January, activity increased
to unsettled to active levels with an isolated
period of minor
storming (G1-Minor) observed early on the 6th. Unsettled to
active
conditions persisted through late on the 7th. This increase
in
activity was due to the presence of a recurrent, positive
polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind
parameters,
measured at the ACE satellite, indicated an increase in wind
speeds
early on 06 Jan from about 475 km/s to a peak of 643 km/s at
06/1025
UTC. Wind speeds remained elevated between 575 - 625 km/s
through
about 07/2000 UTC when a gradual decline to about 430 km/s
were
observed through the end of the summary period. Total field
(Bt)
averaged about 5 nT for a majority of the period, but ranged
from
7-16 nT from 05/0820 UTC - 06/0131 UTC. The Bz component
varied
between +/- 4 nT with increased variability recorded between +12
nT
to -10 nT from 05/0935 UTC to 06/0022 UTC. The phi angle was in
a
predominately positive (away for the Sun) orientation throughout
the
summary period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 11
JANUARY-06 FEBRUARY 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to
low levels from
11-14 January and from 29 January - 06 February. From 15-28
January,
activity levels are expected to increase to low to moderate
levels
(R1-Minor) due to the return of old active Region 2473 (S21, L=334).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at
normal to moderate levels on 11-12, 17-22, 26-28
January and 31 January - 02
February. High levels are expected on
13-16, 23-25, 29-30 January and 03-06
February due to enhanced winds
from a series of geoeffective CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
conditions on 12-13, 22-23, 28-29 January and 02-03 February
with
isolated minor storm levels (G1-Minor) likely on 12 and 18
January,
all due to a series of recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to
unsettled
conditions are expected for the remaining days of the outlook
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Jan 11 0123 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-01-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jan 11 110
6 2
2016 Jan 12 108 15 5
2016 Jan 13
105 12 4
2016 Jan 14 100 8 3
2016
Jan 15 105 6 2
2016 Jan 16 105
6 2
2016 Jan 17 105 6 2
2016 Jan 18
105 5 2
2016 Jan 19 100 5 2
2016
Jan 20 100 5 2
2016 Jan 21 100
8 3
2016 Jan 22 100 15 4
2016 Jan 23
105 10 3
2016 Jan 24 105 5 2
2016
Jan 25 105 5 2
2016 Jan 26 105
5 2
2016 Jan 27 110 5 2
2016 Jan 28
110 18 5
2016 Jan 29 105 12 4
2016
Jan 30 105 8 3
2016 Jan 31 105
5 2
2016 Feb 01 110 5 2
2016 Feb 02
110 15 4
2016 Feb 03 110 12 4
2016
Feb 04 110 8 3
2016 Feb 05 110
5 2
2016 Feb 06 110 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
