:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 04 0534 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 28 Dec 2015 - 03 Jan 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to
moderate levels. Very low
activity was observed on 03 Jan, low level activity
on 29 Dec - 01
Jan, and moderate level activity on 28 Dec and 02 Jan. Region
2473
(S22, L=331, class/area=Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), which exhibited a
complex
beta-gamma-delta configuration, produced all of the
significant flare
activity (2 M-class, 14 C-class).
On 28 Dec, Region 2473 produced an M1
flare at 28/1245 UTC.
Associated with this event was a Type IV radio emission
and a
partial-halo CME observed off the southern portion of the
disk,
first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 12/1212 UTC.
Analysis
of this CME determined that an Earth-directed component was present.
On 02 Jan, Region 2473 produced a long duration M2 flare at
02/0011
UTC. Associated with this event were Type II (1095 km/s) and
IV
radio emissions and an assymetric partial-halo CME observed off
the
southwest limb, first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at
01/2324
UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that a weak
Earth-directed component was
present and would arrive around midday
on 03 Jan, though eventually proved to
be a miss.
There was greater than 10 MeV proton event on 02 Januaury
2016. The
event began at 02/0430 UTC shortly after a long duration M2
flare
that accured at 02/0011 UTC. Proton flux reached a maximum
flux
value of 21 pfu (S1-Minor) at 02/0450 UTC and ended at 02/0750 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels throughout the period with the exception of 31
December
when moderate flux levels were observed. A maximum flux of 6,782
pfu
was observed at 03/1600 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged
from quiet to moderate (G2) storm
conditions. At 31/0003 a small shock was
observed at the ACE
spacecraft. Total field (Bt) increased from 5 nT to 13 nT
with a
corresponding solar wind speed increase from 350 km/s to 500
km/s.
The shock was associated with the arrival of the 28 Dec CME
observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1212 UTC. Isolated G1-Minor to
G2-Moderate
storm conditions were observed midday through late on 31 Dec as
well
as early on 01 Jan. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 28 -
30
Dec, 02-03 Jan.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 04 - 30
JANUARY 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance
for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity from 15 Jan - 28
Jan
due to the return of Region 2473 (S22, L=331). Very low solar
activity
is expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be high from 04 - 13 Jan, 25 - 30 Jan due
to recurrent
coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic
field activity is expected to be at active levels on 04,
07, and 22 Jan with
G1-Minor storm conditions on 06 Jan due to
recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly
quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the rest of the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Jan 04 0534 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-01-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Jan 04 105
15 3
2016 Jan 05 105 8 3
2016 Jan 06
105 20 5
2016 Jan 07 105 20 4
2016
Jan 08 110 12 4
2016 Jan 09 115
8 3
2016 Jan 10 115 5 2
2016 Jan 11
110 5 2
2016 Jan 12 105 5 2
2016
Jan 13 100 5 2
2016 Jan 14 100
5 2
2016 Jan 15 105 5 2
2016 Jan 16
110 5 2
2016 Jan 17 115 5 2
2016
Jan 18 120 5 2
2016 Jan 19 120
5 2
2016 Jan 20 120 5 2
2016 Jan 21
120 8 3
2016 Jan 22 115 15 4
2016
Jan 23 110 12 3
2016 Jan 24 105
8 3
2016 Jan 25 110 5 2
2016 Jan 26
115 5 2
2016 Jan 27 115 5 2
2016
Jan 28 110 5 2
2016 Jan 29 105
5 2
2016 Jan 30 100 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
