venerdì 20 novembre 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period November 20 - 26, 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period November 20 - 26, 2015

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.0-B8.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-125 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-4/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 15-90

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 20 - 26, 2015

Next week, we expect at the Budkov observatory at most quiet to unsettled
conditions after the current active episode. An unsettled to active
episode is possible at the second half of the forecasted week but not very
much probable. We expect at most local K-indices ≤ 3 with possibly
isolated active episode (K ≤ 4) in the second half of forecasted week.

Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics ASCR
Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 20 - December 15, 2015

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on November 21 - 25, 27 - 28, December 9, 14
mostly quiet on November 20, December 11
quiet to unsettled on November 26, 29, December 10, 12 - 13
quiet to active on December 4 - 6, 15
active to disturbed on November 30, December 1 - 3, 7 - 8

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on November (20 - 22),
29 - 30, December (1,) 2, (5 - 7,) 8 - 10, (11 - 12, 16 - 20)

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions unfortunately remains reduced
  in present solar cycle phase.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz