:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Nov 23 1756 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 16 - 22 November 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low
levels over the period. Low
levels occurred on 17-18 November and 21-22
November with Regions
2454 (N13, L=121, class/area Dac/130 on 22 Nov) and
2457 (N11,
L=032, class/area Dsi/130 on 21 Nov) responsible for the
C-class
flare activity. The largest flares of the period were a pair
of
C5/Sf flares at 22/0210 UTC and 22/0538 UTC originating from
Region
2454 which was in a growth phase after 21 November.
Two
filament eruptions were observed at the beginning of the period
that resulted
in coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The first was an
approximate 21 degree long
filament, centered near S11W17, that
lifted off around 15/2114 UTC. The
second was an approximate 19
degree filament, centered near S26W24 that
lifted off around 16/0114
UTC. Two CMEs were observed lifting off the SW limb
in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 15/2336 UTC and 16/0312 UTC, respectively.
Analysis of
these CMEs indicated a likely glancing blow early on 19
November.
Later in the period, another filament eruption, centered
near
S20E10, occurred around 22/0600 UTC. An associated CME, observed
in
C2 imagery beginning at 22/0836 UTC, was mostly directed off the
east
limb. Subsequent analysis of this CME indicated a very low
chance for a
glancing blow.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
at
high levels on 16 November with a maximum flux of 3,129 pfu at
16/1525
UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed from 17-22
November.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm
periods
over the period. Solar wind conditions began the period near
nominal
levels with prolonged periods of southward Bz near -6 nT on
16
November. Subsequently, the geomagnetic field responded with
unsettled
to active periods. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed
on 17 November. At
approximately 17/1941 UTC, a solar sector
boundary crossing to a mostly
negative (towards) sector occurred
followed by an increase in solar wind
speed from 370 km/s to around
530 km/s by early on 19 November. An abrupt
increase in total field
from 6 nT to 12 nT occurred at 18/1925 UTC with a
maximum southward
deflection of the Bz component to -11 nT indicating the
likely
arrival of the CMEs from 15-16 November coupled with influences
from
a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
A
geomagnetic sudden impulse (70 nT at the Wingst magnetometer)
was
observed at 18/2010 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with
(G1)
minor storming late in the period on 18 November with quiet to
active
conditions on 19 November. Solar wind speed continued a slow
decay over the
rest of the period to background levels resulting in
quiet to unsettled
levels on 20-21 November and quiet conditions on
22 November.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 23 NOV-19 DEC
2015
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 23-25 November due to
flare
potential from Region 2454. Very low to low levels are expected
from
26 November through 07 December. There is also a chance for
M-class
flare activity from 08-19 December with the return of old
Region
2454 (N13, L=121).
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels likely
from 26-28 November and again from 06-13 December due to CH
HSS
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at
unsettled to active
levels from 25-26 November and 05-12 December with (G1)
minor
storming likely on 06-07 December due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 23 1756 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-11-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Nov 23 125
5 2
2015 Nov 24 120 5 2
2015 Nov 25
115 15 4
2015 Nov 26 110 10 4
2015
Nov 27 110 8 3
2015 Nov 28 110
5 2
2015 Nov 29 110 5 2
2015 Nov 30
115 5 2
2015 Dec 01 115 5 2
2015
Dec 02 115 5 2
2015 Dec 03 115
5 2
2015 Dec 04 115 5 2
2015 Dec 05
110 12 4
2015 Dec 06 110 20 5
2015
Dec 07 110 25 5
2015 Dec 08 110
18 4
2015 Dec 09 110 8 3
2015 Dec 10
110 12 4
2015 Dec 11 110 10 3
2015
Dec 12 105 8 3
2015 Dec 13 100
5 2
2015 Dec 14 100 5 2
2015 Dec 15
100 5 2
2015 Dec 16 100 8 3
2015
Dec 17 100 5 2
2015 Dec 18 105
5 2
2015 Dec 19 105 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
