:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Nov 16 0630 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 09 - 15 November 2015
Solar activity was at very low to moderate
levels over the period.
The period began at moderate levels with an M3/2b
flare at 09/1312
UTC from Region 2449 (S12, L=207, class/area Dao/150 on 08
Nov).
Associated with the flare were Type II (957 km/s) and Type IV
radio
sweeps, a 670 sfu Tenflare, and a partial halo coronal mass
ejection
(CME). Originally, the CME was thought to have a
partial
Earth-directed component; however, there was no arrival apparent
in
ACE/SWEPAM data. Low levels were observed on 10 and 13 November due
to
low level C-flare activity from Regions 2443 (N07, L=316,
class/area Fkc/650
on 01 Nov) and 2452 (S08, L=169, class/area
Axx/010 on 11 Nov). Late on 15
November, two filament eruptions
occurred in the SW quadrant. The first was
an approximate 21 degree
filament eruption centered near S11W17 that was
observed lifting off
around 15/2114 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The second
was an
approximate 19 degree filament eruption centered near
S26W24
observed lifting off around 16/0114 UTC. Analysis was ongoing
for
these two events, however given their location and initial
trajectory,
an Earth-directed component is probable.
An enhancement (below S1-Minor
threshold) of the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux occurred at 09/2130 UTC
associated with the M3 flare.
Particle flux measurements reached a maximum of
3.7 pfu 10/0020 UTC
before declining to background levels by early on 11
November.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at
high to very high levels over the period. Very high levels
occurred
on 11 and 13 November with maximum flux levels of 59,508 pfu
at
11/1915 UTC and 88,813 pfu at 13/1355 UTC, respectively.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm
levels.
The period began under the influence of a prolonged negative
Bz
component followed by a solar sector boundary crossing mid-day on
09
November. Shortly after, a co-rotating interaction region preceding
a
positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became
geoeffective
starting in the latter half of 09 November. Total field
rose briefly to 12 nT
with solar wind speeds increasing to the
650-750 km/s range. Solar wind
continued to be enhanced through 12
November as CH HSS effects declined. The
geomagnetic field responded
with unsettled to (G1-minor) minor storm levels
on 09 November,
active to (G2-moderate) major storm levels on 10 November,
and quiet
to minor storm levels on 11 November. Quiet levels were observed
on
12 November. By 13 November, another positive polarity CH HSS
became
geoeffective causing total field to initially rise to 10 nT
with
solar wind speeds in the upper 400 km/s range. Total field
remained
slightly agitated from 14-15 November with total field ranging
from
5-9 nT. As a result, quiet to active levels were observed on
13
November, with quiet to unsettled levels on 14-15 November.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 16 NOV - 12 DEC
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with
a
chance for M-class (R1-R2, minor-moderate) flares from 22
November
through 05 December with the return of old Region 2443 (N07, L=316).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at
high levels from 16-18 November and again from
01-12 December due to
recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate
levels are expected from 19-30
November.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels from 16-19 November due to prolonged southward Bz as well
as
a negative polarity CH HSS on 18-19 November. Multiple
recurrent
positive polarity CH HSSs are expected to influence the
geomagnetic
field from 30 November-02 December, 05-08 December, and
10-12
December causing unsettled to active levels with (G1-minor)
storm
periods likely on 30 November-01 December, and 06-08 December.
The eruptive filaments on 15-16 November are not in the
present
forecast as we are waiting on further imagery to model these
events.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2015 Nov 16 0630 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-11-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Nov 16 104
10 4
2015 Nov 17 102 8 3
2015 Nov 18
100 15 4
2015 Nov 19 100 12 4
2015
Nov 20 95 8 3
2015 Nov 21 95
8 3
2015 Nov 22 95 8 3
2015 Nov 23
105 5 2
2015 Nov 24 110 5 2
2015
Nov 25 110 5 2
2015 Nov 26 115
8 3
2015 Nov 27 115 5 2
2015 Nov 28
115 8 3
2015 Nov 29 115 8 3
2015
Nov 30 120 25 5
2015 Dec 01 120
25 5
2015 Dec 02 115 15 4
2015 Dec 03
110 8 3
2015 Dec 04 110 5 2
2015
Dec 05 105 12 4
2015 Dec 06 105
20 5
2015 Dec 07 105 25 5
2015 Dec 08
105 18 5
2015 Dec 09 105 8 3
2015
Dec 10 105 12 4
2015 Dec 11 105
10 3
2015 Dec 12 105 8 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
