It has been an active period for space weather. At 2240 UTC on November 11,
the Australian Space Forecast Center issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:
“Combined CME and coronal hole effects are expected to become geo-effective on
12-Nov, resulting in active to minor storm conditions.” They predicted quiet to
minor storm conditions on November 12, and unsettled to active conditions on
November 13.
A few days ago the Washington Post
ran this story about a possible geomagnetic storm: http://wapo.st/1MSkLZG
The Washington Post also shared
this video from NASA of the recent solar flare eruption: http://bit.ly/1NMyi3P
David Moore sent this link last
week about a geomagnetic disturbance on November 4 which made planes disappear
from air traffic control screens in Sweden: http://phys.org/news/2015-11-sweden-solar-flare-flight.htmlThe
College A index (measured near 64.9 deg N. latitude, near Fairbanks, Alaska) on
that date was a very high 55. Stockholm is around 59.3 deg N. latitude. It is
generally true that geomagnetic disturbances are more intense at higher
latitudes.
Over the past week (November 5-11,
our reporting week for data covers Thursday through Wednesday) compared to the
previous seven days average daily sunspot number declined from 90.3 to 72.3, and
average daily solar flux went from 118.3 to 109.4.
Geomagnetic activity increased,
with average daily planetary A index going from 14.7 to 25 and mid-latitude A
index from 12 to 19.
The latest forecast from USAF/NOAA
has solar flux at 107 on November 13, 113 on November 14-15, 110 and 107 on
November 16-17, 105 on November 18-22, 110 on November 23-25, and 115 on
November 26-27. Solar flux peaks at 120 on November 28-30 before dropping to a
low of 100 on December 14-15. Solar flux is expected to rise to 120 again about
ten days later.
Predicted planetary A index is 12,
20 and 12 on November 13-15, then 8 on November 16-17, 5 on November 18-25, 8 on
November 26, 5 on November 27, 8 on November 28-29, 25 on November 30 and
December 1, then 15, 8, 5, 12, 25, 18 and 12 on December 2-8 and 8 on December
9-13.
Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, of the Czech
Propagation Interest Group expects geomagnetic conditions to be quiet to active
on November 13-14, mostly quiet November 15-21, quiet on November 22-23, quiet
to unsettled November 24-25, mostly quiet November 26-29, active to disturbed
November 30 and December 1, quiet to active December 2, quiet to unsettled
December 3-4, quiet to active December 5, active to disturbed December 6, quiet
to active December 7, and quiet to unsettled December 8-9.
He expects increases in solar wind
on November 13-14, November 30 through December 2, and December 5-7...
