Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 6, 2015
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 6, 2015
Solar activity increased over last week,
with the average daily sunspot number
rising from 77.6 to 90.3, and average daily solar flux from 110.9 to 118.3. These comparisons
contrast October 29 through November 4
with the previous seven days.
A high speed solar wind caused
aurora on November 3-4 and the high planetary A index of 32 and 33 on those
days.
Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November
6, 25 on November 7-8, then 15 and 12 on
November 9-10, 8 on November 11-12, then 12, 20, 5, 8 and 12 on November 13-17, 5 on November
18-21, then 10, 5, 8 and 12 on November
22-25, and 10 on November 26-27. Planetary A index then jumps to 50 and 40 on November 30
and December 1, when the same region
causing aurora the past few days rotates back into view.
Predicted solar flux is 110 on November 6,
115 on November 7-8, 120 on November
9-12, 105 and 110 on November 13-14, 115 on November 15-16, then 120, 115 and 110 on November
17-19, and 105 on November 20-24. Flux
values dip below 100 on November 27 through December 8, reaching a low of 85 on November 30 through
December 5.
