:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 16 - 22 March 2015
Solar activity was at moderate levels to
begin the week. Region 2297
(S17, L=196 class/area Dkc/420 on 13 Mar )
produced a pair of M1/2n
flares at 16/1058 UTC and 17/2334 UTC. Solar
activity was at very
low to low levels for the rest of the week. Region 2302
(N12, L=189
class/area Cai/080 on 19 Mar) produced a C9/Sf at 18/0751 UTC
as
well as several low-level C-class events. Region 2297 also continued
to
produce C-class activity through the remainder of the period.
The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was
enhanced
following a long duration C9/1f flare observed at 15/0213
UTC. The alert
threshold was not reached however, as the peak flux
observed was 8.5 pfu at
16/0755 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit began
the period at normal levels but reached high levels from 18-22
Mar
with a peak flux of 22,300 pfu on 20 Mar.
Geomagnetic field
activity began at quiet to unsettled levels. Quiet
to severe storm levels
were observed on 17 Mar followed by minor to
major storm levels on 18 Mar due
to effects from the 15 Mar CME.
Unsettled to minor storm levels were observed
on 19-20 Mar due to
waning CME effects and the onset of the southern polar
coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet to active conditions prevailed
on
21 Mar. An isolated major storm period was observed between
0600-0900
UTC on 22 Mar followed by active conditions but settled to
quiet levels by
1800 UTC. This activity initially looked to be
caused by a co-rotating
interactive region ahead of a positive
polarity high speed stream but it is
difficult to ascertain the true
origin as the phi angle settled back to
negative following the
event. It is possible that a transient caused the
increase in
activity however, a source could not be easily identified.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 23 MARCH - 18 APRIL
2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels to begin the
period.
Moderate activity is expected from 01-15 Apr with the
anticipated
return of old Region 2297 followed by low levels for the
remainder
of the period.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the
majority of the
period with a chance for high levels following southern
polar
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects on 30 Mar-01
Apr,
04-06 Apr, and 14-18 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected
to reach minor storm levels
on 23 Mar followed by unsettled to active levels
on 24-25 Mar due to
positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions
are
expected on 26 Mar. Conditions are expected to increase to
unsettled
to active levels from 27-31 Mar with minor storms likely on
28-29
Mar due to recurrent southern polar CH HSS effects. Mostly
quiet
conditions are expected to prevail from 01-11 Apr with
unsettled
conditions possible on 03-04 Apr due to positive polarity CH
HSS
effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 12-18
Apr
with minor storm conditions likely on 13-15 Apr due to a second
round
of southern polar CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook
Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 23 0401 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-03-23
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Mar 23 125
20 5
2015 Mar 24 125 20 4
2015 Mar 25
125 18 4
2015 Mar 26 125 5 2
2015
Mar 27 125 15 4
2015 Mar 28 120
25 5
2015 Mar 29 120 25 5
2015 Mar 30
120 12 4
2015 Mar 31 125 10 3
2015
Apr 01 130 8 3
2015 Apr 02 130
10 3
2015 Apr 03 130 15 4
2015 Apr 04
130 12 4
2015 Apr 05 130 5 2
2015
Apr 06 125 5 2
2015 Apr 07 125
8 3
2015 Apr 08 125 8 3
2015 Apr 09
120 5 2
2015 Apr 10 120 5 2
2015
Apr 11 115 5 2
2015 Apr 12 115
15 3
2015 Apr 13 115 30 5
2015 Apr 14
115 20 5
2015 Apr 15 115 20 5
2015
Apr 16 115 20 4
2015 Apr 17 115
15 3
2015 Apr 18 115 20 4
