>>>>>Just an FYI! I have begun producing a daily (MF) medium
frequency radio
>>>>>wave propagation forecast in unison with
the HF one. The MF forecast
>>>>>follows the HF
forecast.<<<<<
Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and
SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit”
daily W4HM Daily HF/MF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only
daily global HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the
planet.
I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial/troposphere
meteorologist/climatologist, physical oceanographer and one of the few on
the planet with advanced education and forecast experience in all
aforementioned disciplines. In terrestrial/troposphere weather forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.
This is created and disseminated by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.
If you find this daily
HF/MF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio
activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy
hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are
interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave
propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their
knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute
this daily HF/MF radio
wave
propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting
images associated with this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation
forecast can
be found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and
in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last
but not least here is my new HF/MF radio wave propagation web page
where you
can sign up to receive this daily HF/MF radio wave propagation
forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by
Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and
creating a
password.
https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
>>>>>W4HM
Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to
>>>>>the point.
Solar minimum may begin later this
year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century.
When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the
middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum
may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate
anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.
On
February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non
nonexistent.<<<<<
#319 Issued Wednesday November 14, 2018
at 1815 UTC
Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather
Indices-
Solar activity was low.
The daily solar flux index
numbers (DSFI) were
68.0 67.0 66.0.
There had been 20 consecutive
days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) below
70.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11.
There had
been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) above
0.
In 2018 prior to the above event there had been 190 days with an
official
daily sunspot number (DSSN) of 0.
There had been one sunspot
group numbered 12726 located near N04W13 with a
relatively alpha magnetic
signature capable of releasing a very small B
class solar flare.
The
24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet
geomagnetic condition of
2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0.
The 24 hour period
planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between
7
& 0,
which had been at a quiet geomagnetic condition.
The 24
hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged
between
-15 & +5 nT.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum
solar wind speed was 550 & 421 km/s.
Global Daily HF/MF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on
Nov 14, 2018- improvement.
HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend”
on Nov 15, 2018- steady.
HF/MF radio wave propagation condition “trend”
on Nov 16, 2018- steady.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at
night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200
kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350,
15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990,
25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night
and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio
wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring
equinox.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night
and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz-
S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350,
15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990,
25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night
and S0 at day.
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio
wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions
are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring
equinox.
>>>>>GLOBAL (MF) MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KHZ)
RADIO WAVE PROPAGATION
>>>>>CONDITIONS
EXPECTED-<<<<<
FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT
PATH-
-East <-> West To 1100 Mi /1800 km S9+6
*North <->
South To 1100 Mi /1800 km S7-9
+South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800
km S5-7
FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SHORT PATH-
-East <->
West To 1100 Mi / 1800 km S9+6
*South <-> North To 1100 Mi /1800
km S7-9
+North <-> South To 1100 Mi / 1800 km
S5-7
FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Northern Hemisphere
(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific and cross
Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200
km-
High Latitude S4-6
Mid Latitude S9+6
Low latitude
S5-7
FORECASTED GREAT CIRCLE LONG OR SKEWED PATH-
Southern Hemisphere
(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific and cross
Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 mi / 5200
km-
High Latitude S4-6
Mid Latitude S9-+6
Low latitude
S5-7
We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of MF radio wave
propagation
conditions. Globally MF radio wave propagation conditions are
most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring
equinox.
Medium frequency (300-3000 khz) radio wave propagation
conditions are
impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the
maximum usable
frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time
but rather due
to energetic electron flux levels at energies greater than 2
MeV (2+1),
geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5
& >) that
increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general
altitude of the
radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency
(LUF) via D
layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux
levels greater
than A0, proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV
(10+0), hard
x-rays and galactic cosmic rays.
There is also the issue
of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna
polarization plays a large role in
the success of a long haul MF DX contact.
As a MF RF signal traverses
Earth's magnetic lines of force in a
perpendicular manner on high and mid
latitude paths say between W3 land and
SM, higher angle horizontally
polarized signals are more readily absorbed
than lower angle vertically
polarized signals. On other propagation paths on
the globe opposite results
can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on
a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or
S9 and W4.
Unfortunately the
simplest way to look at medium frequencies with respect to
radio wave
propagation conditions is to accept the fact that propagation is
poor the
majority of the time, especially past approximately 1250 miles (one
maximum
distance refraction off of the E layer), with occasional short-lived
good
periods as far as 3200 miles.
All 13 of the following indices have to
occur as described below in order to
see the best global medium frequency
(MF) radio wave propagation possible.
1.) Dropping geomagnetic field
indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily sunspot number
under 100, under 70 best.
3.) A daily sunspot number no higher then the
100 for routine stable
formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting
mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for
several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index
fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0
for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic proton flux levels
no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels of A0 for
several days consecutively.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.)
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
11.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending
towards zero.
12.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV
(2+0).
13. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days
consecutively.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR
SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN
EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.
This HF/MF Radio wave propagation forecast is
produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP HF/MF radio wave propagation prediction
software. I wrote it
beginning in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that
it can’t be
distributed to the general public. It does outperform VOA
CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based
on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my
location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when
necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via
remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the
forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not least I look
at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The hamateur
radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave
dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels
received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels
received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000
watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain
array
antenna.
>>>The MF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF
signal levels are based on
50,000 watts (50 kw) and an omnidirectional
vertical antenna.<<<
Please keep in mind that this is a
relatively simplified HF/MF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it
easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio
enthusiast.
Globally HF/MF radio wave propagation conditions are most
evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically
opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change
daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at
different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by
radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency
(MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
Also by propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through
RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E
(Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so
to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and
lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an
unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters)
propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by
variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular
propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic
conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal
absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases
in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to
hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels
greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10
MeV (10+0).
Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are
impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot
number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of
Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated
(greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent
elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations"
are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the HF radio wave
propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper
credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to
see the best global high frequency (HF) radio
wave propagation possible,
something that happens only rarely.
1.)
Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.)
A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily
sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10,
fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3
hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high
latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic
protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels
greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of
high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering
of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or
better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a
geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive
number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW
public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S.
government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF/MF
radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the
U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this
daily HF/MF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain
data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF/MF radio
wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted
©
1988-2018 by
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to
redistribute this daily HF/MF radio
wave
propagation forecast, as long as
you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also
HF/MF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and
therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and
hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
