Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave
propagation forecast on the planet.
Created and disseminated by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA
If you find this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast useful to your hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free
to drop me a line and let me know that
at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
Feel free without prior permission to
redistribute this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you
redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.
Supporting
images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast can be
found in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and
at
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
but
without supporting images.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type
group hosted by contesting on line (COL), so you have to sign up by using an
existing email address and creating a password.
And last but not least I
also post solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on and some images in my
Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
..
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#353 Issued Tuesday December 19, 2017 at 1530 UTC
Important
Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
The daily solar flux
numbers (DSSN) were 69.9 71.6 70.9.
The official daily sunspot number
(DSSN) was 0.
This was the 6th day in a row with a daily sunspot number
(DSSN) of 0.
In 2017 there had been 100 days with a daily sunspot number
(DSSN) of 0.
The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp)
had been an active to quiet geomagnetic condition of
4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1.
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Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave
propagation condition trend Dec 19, 2017- improving
HF radio wave
propagation condition trend Dec 20, 2017- steady state
Northern
Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-
3150-3400, 3500-4100,
4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- very good at night and poor to fair at
day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- very good at
night and fair at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900,
17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- very poor at night and good at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- very poor at night and fair to good at
day,
24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- very poor at night and fair at
day,
28000-29700 kHz- very poor at night and poor at
day.
Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9 +1-9
Good-
S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
During the northern
hemisphere winter season the higher HF bands of 10-20 meters (11-19 meters)
close sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in the
southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher than in
the southern hemisphere as the F layer of the ionosphere is lower in height and
more concentrated.
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300- fair at night and
poor at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- fair at
night and fair at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900,
17450-17950, 18068-18168, kHz-
fair at night and poor to fair at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- poor at night and fair at day,
24890-24990,
25600-26100 kHz- poor at night and poor at day,
28000-29700 kHz- very
poor at night and poor at day.
Excellent- S9+10 or >
Very Good- S9
+1-9
Good- S8-9
Fair- S4-7
Poor- S1-3
Very Poor- S0
Keep in
mind that almost daily during the southern hemisphere summer season you will
find that the 10 (11) meter bands will open via short north-south and east-west
propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds
form and line up favorably much longer propagation paths open up on east-west
paths. And last but not least north-south propagation paths occur across the
equator via trans equatorial propagation
(TEP).
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This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning
in the late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the
general public.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is
produced based on the SIGINT_CAP, I do check the actual band conditions at my
location in the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary. I
also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers around on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually
if and when necessary.
The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels
received are based on 5 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels
received are based on 50 watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The
hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts and ½
wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF
signal levels are based on 100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA
type curtain array
antenna.
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Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio
wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and
applicable by the average radio enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave
propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring
equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter
solstices.
Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by
decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles
from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to
changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF)
and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).
The D and E layers also come
into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then
there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a
wrench into the gears so to speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation
in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and
geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation
conditions in a negative
manner.
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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO
ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The propagation indices
"interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio
wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2017 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of
information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as
proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have to occur as
described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave
propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.) Dropping
geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily
sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily sunspot
number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F
Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer
than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3 hours
Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude
paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than
B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.
8.) No
current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with
a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency
RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or better towards a
positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic
storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is
best.
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Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW public domain
data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities
and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave
propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this daily HF
propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my
personal intellectual property. Therefore this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella,
W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF
radio wave propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety
and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting
is still an inexact
science. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby
related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God,
therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
