:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0458 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 24 - 30 August 2015
Solar activity ranged from low to high
levels. Low levels were
observed on 25-26 and 29 Aug, moderate (R1-minor)
levels on 27-28
and 30 Aug while high (R2-moderate) levels occurred on 24
Aug. The
vast majority of activity was observed from Region 2403 (S15,
L=193,
class/area Fkc/1190 on 25 Aug). In total, this region produced
a
total of 58 C-class and six M-class flares. Region 2405 (S19,
L=089,
class/area Cro/020 on 29 Aug) produced a total of four weak
C-class
flares.
The period began at high levels as Region 2403
produced an impulsive
M5/1b flare at 24/0733 UTC. Later on the 24th, the
region produced
an M1 flare at 24/1746 UTC. On 27-28 Aug, Region 2403
produced a
total of three M-class flares; an M2/1n at 27/0544 UTC, an M2/1f
at
28/1316 UTC and an M2/1n at 28/1903 UTC. The period ended when
Region
2403 produced a long duration M1 flare at 30/0330 UTC. During
the period, no
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
detected.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 24-25 and 29 Aug
and moderate levels on 26-28 and 30
Aug. The peak flux observed during the
summary period was 1,840 pfu
at 25/1700 UTC.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Quiet to unsettled levels
were observed on 24-25 Aug due to waning
effects from a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Solar wind parameters reflected a
nominal wind environment
with speeds decreasing from about 500 km/s to near
350 km/s by late
on 25 Aug. Early on 26 Aug, geomagnetic field conditions
increased
to unsettled to minor storm (G1-minor) levels due to
transient
effects from the 22 Aug CME. Geomagnetic activity further
increased
on 27 Aug to active to major storm (G2-moderate) levels
and
persisted at these levels through 28 Aug. During this time frame,
wind
speeds were unimpressive averaging about 350 km/s but the
total
interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) peaked at 14 nT coupled
with
steady southward Bz to -12 nT.
Activity levels remained elevated
on 29 Aug at quiet to minor storm
levels due to effects from a co-rotating
interaction region in
advance of an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS.
Wind speeds
approached 510 km/s with peak Bt values of 17 nT and peak
southward
Bz briefly reached -15 nT. 30 Aug saw quiet geomagnetic
field
conditions with solar wind parameters indicating a return to
more
nominal levels.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 31
AUGUST-26 SEPTEMBER 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to
low levels from 31
Aug - 10 Sep and again from 25-26 Sep. From 11-24 Sep,
activity
levels are expected to increase to low to moderate (R1-minor) due
to
the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=193).
No proton events are
expected at geosynchronous orbit barring any
significant flare activity from
returning region 2403 during 11-24
Sep.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate
levels on 31 Aug - 02 Sep,
07-12 Sep, 19 Sep and 22-25 Sep. High flux levels
are expected on
03-06 Sep, 13-18 Sep, 20-21 Sep and 26 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at minor
storm
(G1-minor) levels on 01-02 Sep and 19 Sep due to positive
polarity
CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
03-04
Sep, 12-16 Sep, 18 Sep, 20 Sep and 24-25 Sep due to
positive
polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet levels are expected for
the
remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather
Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 31 0459 UTC
# Prepared by the US
Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product
description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-08-31
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 31 90
8 3
2015 Sep 01 90 20 5
2015 Sep 02
85 22 5
2015 Sep 03 85 15 4
2015
Sep 04 85 10 3
2015 Sep 05 85
8 3
2015 Sep 06 85 8 3
2015 Sep 07
85 5 2
2015 Sep 08 85 5 2
2015
Sep 09 85 5 2
2015 Sep 10 85
5 2
2015 Sep 11 95 5 2
2015 Sep 12
105 12 3
2015 Sep 13 115 15 4
2015
Sep 14 115 10 3
2015 Sep 15 115
8 3
2015 Sep 16 115 10 3
2015 Sep 17
115 5 2
2015 Sep 18 115 8 3
2015
Sep 19 115 20 5
2015 Sep 20 115
10 3
2015 Sep 21 115 5 2
2015 Sep 22
115 5 2
2015 Sep 23 110 5 2
2015
Sep 24 105 15 4
2015 Sep 25 100
10 3
2015 Sep 26 90 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
