:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 24 0441 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 17 - 23 August 2015
Solar activity ranged from very low to
moderate levels. Very low
activity was observed on 17-19 Aug, low level
activity on 20 and 23
Aug and moderate level activity on 21-22 Aug.
Developing Region 2403
(S15, L=193, class/area Ekc/760 on 23 Aug), which
exhibited a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, produced all of
the
flare activity during the period.
On 21 Aug, Region 2403 produced
three M1 (R1-minor) flares, the
largest was an M1/2b flare observed at
21/0948 UTC. Associated with
this event was a Type II radio emission
(estimated 490 km/s shock
velocity) and a partial-halo CME observed off the
south limb, first
visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 21/1024 UTC. Analysis
of this
CME determined that a weak Earth-directed component was present.
22 Aug saw 2 more M-class flares produced by Region 2403, the
largest
was an M3/1b flare observed at 22/2124 UTC. Early on the
22nd, the region
produced an M1/1b flare observed at 22/0649 UTC.
Associated with this event
was a Type II radio emission (estimated
1149 km/s shock velocity), a Type IV
radio emission and a
partial-halo CME observed off the NE limb, first visible
in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 22/0712 UTC. Analysis of this CME
determined
that a weak Earth-directed component was present.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 17-22 Aug with a peak flux of
9,116 pfu observed at
21/1830 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 23 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to
active
levels during the period. Isolated minor storm (G1-minor)
periods
were observed midday on 17 Aug and again on 23 Aug. An
isolated
major storm (G2-moderate) period was observed between 0600-0900
UTC
on 23 Aug. From 17-20 Aug, field conditions ranged from quiet to
minor
storm levels and were influenced by a geoeffective positive
polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS). During this time
frame, measurements at the
ACE satellite indicated peak wind speeds
approaching 600 km/s midday on 17
Aug. However, ACE parameters
indicated a fairly weak magnetic structure was
present with Bz
measuring a maximum southward extent of only -7 nT. Quiet
to
unsettled conditions were present for 21-22 Aug.
By 23 Aug, field
conditions increased to unsettled to major storm
levels under the influence
of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
in advance of an equatorial,
positive polarity CH HSS. At about
23/0600 UTC, solar wind parameters
observed an increase in wind
speeds from about 400 km/s to near 550 km/s by
about 23/0900 UTC.
Wind speeds further increased to 610 km/s by 23/1400 UTC
before
ending the period near 525 km/s. IMF total field registered
maximum
readings of 15 nT at about 23/0700 UTC while the Bz
component
reached a maximum southward extent of -12 nT at about 23/0600
UTC.
The phi angle remained in a predominately positive (away)
orientation
throughout the summary period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC
ACTIVITY 24 AUGUST-19 SEPTEMBER 2015
Solar activity is likely to be at
moderate levels (R1-R2,
minor-moderate), with a slight chance for X-class
flares (R3-Strong
or greater), from 24-29 August due to the flare potential
from
Region 2403. Very low to low flare activity is expected from 30
Aug
to 10 Sep after Region 2403 rotates off the visible disk. A return
to
moderate levels (R1-R2, minor-moderate), with a slight chance for
X-class
flares (R3-Strong or greater), is likely from 11-19 Sep
after the return of
old Region 2403 (S15, L=193).
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit barring any
significant flare activity from Region 2403.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the
period.
Moderate levels are expected on 24 Aug, 27 Aug, 01-04 Sep, 09-12
Sep
and 19 Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 28-31 Aug,
05-08
Sep and 13-18 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1
(minor) on 24 Aug
due to effects from the 21 and 22 Aug CMEs coupled with a
positive
polarity CH HSS. G1 (minor) field activity is also expected on
03
Sep due to a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels
are
expected on 25-29 Aug, 02 Sep, 04-06 Sep, 12-14 Sep, 16 Sep and
27 Sep due to
recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook
Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 24 0442 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-08-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 24 120
28 5
2015 Aug 25 120 20 4
2015 Aug 26
125 12 4
2015 Aug 27 125 18 4
2015
Aug 28 125 12 4
2015 Aug 29 120
8 3
2015 Aug 30 115 5 2
2015 Aug 31
115 5 2
2015 Sep 01 110 5 2
2015
Sep 02 105 15 4
2015 Sep 03 100
25 5
2015 Sep 04 100 15 4
2015 Sep 05
100 10 3
2015 Sep 06 95 8 3
2015
Sep 07 95 5 2
2015 Sep 08 95
5 2
2015 Sep 09 95 5 2
2015 Sep 10
90 5 2
2015 Sep 11 85 5 2
2015
Sep 12 95 12 4
2015 Sep 13 100
15 4
2015 Sep 14 105 10 3
2015 Sep 15
105 5 2
2015 Sep 16 105 10 3
2015
Sep 17 105 5 2
2015 Sep 18 105
8 3
2015 Sep 19 105 20 5
(SWPC via
DXLD)
