:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0313 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 10 - 16 August 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels
this period. Region
2396 (S17, L=038, Ekc/840; 09 Aug) and Region 2401 (S11,
L=270,
Dai/070; 16 Aug) produced weak C-class flares on 11 Aug, 14 Aug,
and
15 Aug. Solar activity was very low for all other days.
On 12
Aug, a 13 degree long filament centered near S29W29 produced a
partial-halo
coronal mass ejection (CME) signature visible on
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This
CME was determined to be Earth-directed.
On 14 Aug, two filaments
disappeared. The first was 16 degrees long
centered near S12W41 and the
second was a 17 degree long filament
centered near S39W30. Both filaments
produced CMEs observed off the
SW limb observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery.
Model output suggests the
possibility of a glancing blow as they pass Earth
on 18 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reach
high levels on 10 - 12 Aug, then decreased to moderate levels on
13
- 15 Aug, before returning to high levels on 16 Aug. A peak flux
of
4100 was observed on 11 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity was at
quiet to unsettled levels from 10
- 14 Aug, with an isolated period of active
conditions early on 13
Aug. On 15 Aug, activity reached G3 (strong) levels
with the arrival
of the 12 Aug CME. A shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft on
15/0745 UTC with a subsequent sudden impulse of 36 nT at NGK
at
15/0908 UTC. G2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) conditions were
observed
through 16 Aug as the CME effects transitioned into a
positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
FORECAST
OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 17 AUGUST-12 SEPTEMBER 2015
Solar
activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
outlook period with a
chance for C-class flare activity.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels through
period. Moderate
levels are expected from 17-23 Aug , 27-29 Aug, 02-05 Sep,
and 09-11
Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 30 Aug - 01 Sep,
06-08
Sep, and 12 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
at G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Aug due to a positive
polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Active levels are
expected
on 23 Aug, 27 Aug, and 02-04 Sep from the influence of recurrent
CH
HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels
throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product:
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0314
UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-08-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 17 85
20 5
2015 Aug 18 85 15 4
2015 Aug 19
85 8 3
2015 Aug 20 85 5 2
2015
Aug 21 85 8 3
2015 Aug 22 85
8 3
2015 Aug 23 90 12 4
2015 Aug 24
90 10 3
2015 Aug 25 90 5 2
2015
Aug 26 90 5 2
2015 Aug 27 95
12 4
2015 Aug 28 95 10 3
2015 Aug 29
95 10 3
2015 Aug 30 95 5 2
2015
Aug 31 95 5 2
2015 Sep 01 95
5 2
2015 Sep 02 95 12 4
2015 Sep 03
100 22 5
2015 Sep 04 100 15 4
2015
Sep 05 105 12 3
2015 Sep 06 100
10 3
2015 Sep 07 100 10 3
2015 Sep 08
95 8 3
2015 Sep 09 90 8 3
2015
Sep 10 85 5 2
2015 Sep 11 85
5 2
2015 Sep 12 85 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
