:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 21 - 27 November 2016
Solar activity was at very low levels. The
largest flare of the
period was at B6 at 22/0010 UTC from Region 2612 (N09,
L=194,
class/area Hax/230 on 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs
were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was
moderate levels on 22-24 November while high levels were reached on
21
and 25-27 November. The largest flux of the period was 25,245 pfu
at 27/1625
UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2
(Moderate)
geomagnetic storm conditions. Enhanced geomagnetic activity was
due
to recurrent, positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed streams
(CH
HSS). The period began with solar wind speeds near 330 km/s on
21
November with an increasing total field from approximately 1 nT
early
in the period to near 12 nT by 22 November and a fluctuating
Bz component
between +10 nT and -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased,
thereafter, to near 510
km/s by 23 November while total field
decreased to near 3 nT. Another
enhancement in total field was
observed late on 23 November to a maximum near
11 nT on 24 November
before decreasing to 5 nT by 25 November. Stepped
increases in solar
wind speed occurred at 24/0514 UTC from 400 km/s to 500
km/s and at
25/0144 UTC from 500 km/s to near 700 km/s. The geomagnetic
field
responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November, quiet
to
active levels on 22-23 November, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm
levels
on 24 November, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 25
November and
quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 November.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 28 NOV - 24 DEC 2016
Solar activity is expected to
be at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares for the
forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on
28 November-07 December, 10-18 December and again on 22-24
December due to
recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
at quiet to unsettled
levels on 28-30 November as the geomagnetic field
recovers from
positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels
are
expected from 07-11 December and 19-24 December with G1
(Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 10 and 21-22 December due
to
recurrent CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook
Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-11-28
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Nov 28 84
8 3
2016 Nov 29 83 8 3
2016 Nov 30
83 8 3
2016 Dec 01 80 5 2
2016
Dec 02 80 5 2
2016 Dec 03 80
5 2
2016 Dec 04 82 5 2
2016 Dec 05
82 5 2
2016 Dec 06 80 5 2
2016
Dec 07 80 15 4
2016 Dec 08 78
12 4
2016 Dec 09 78 18 4
2016 Dec 10
78 20 5
2016 Dec 11 78 10 3
2016
Dec 12 80 5 2
2016 Dec 13 80
5 2
2016 Dec 14 82 5 2
2016 Dec 15
82 5 2
2016 Dec 16 80 5 2
2016
Dec 17 80 5 2
2016 Dec 18 78
8 3
2016 Dec 19 78 12 4
2016 Dec 20
80 16 4
2016 Dec 21 80 22 5
2016
Dec 22 80 30 5
2016 Dec 23 82
12 4
2016 Dec 24 82 10 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
