:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 0425 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 31 Oct-6 Nov 2016
Solar activity was very low through the period
with only a few
isolated low-level B-class flaring observed from Regions 2604
(N07,
L=261, class/area Bxo/010 on 29 October) and 2605 (N07,
L=191,
class/area Cro/030 on 31 October). Other activity included
several
filament eruptions. The first was a filament eruption centered
near
S10W40 observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 04/0230 UTC with
an
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in coronagraph
imagery
off the west limb beginning at 04/0736 UTC. The second
filament eruption
occurred between 05/0200-0500 UTC in SDO/AIA 193
imagery centered near
N24W15. An associated partial halo CME was
observed in coronagraph imagery
beginning at 05/0424 UTC. WSA Enlil
modelling of the CMEs predicted an
arrival approximately early to
midday on 08 November.
No proton
events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the
period with a maximum flux of 21,357 pfu
at 31/2030 UTC.
Geomagnetic
field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar
wind parameters were
in decline over the period on the trailing end
of a positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar wind speed declined steadily from near
580 km/s to around 305
km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from
1 nT to 8 nT
with prolonged periods of southward Bz from 02-03 November.
The
geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels on 31
October-01
November and 04 November, quiet to active levels on 02-03
November,
and quiet levels on 05-06 November.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 7 NOVEMBER-3 DECEMBER 2016
Solar activity is
expected to be at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares
over the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be moderate levels with high levels
likely on 07, 10-19,
and 22 November-03 December due to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 08 November and unsettled levels on 09 November due to
the
arrival of the 04 and 05 November CMEs. Unsettled to active levels
are
also expected from 10-15 and 19-30 November with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm
levels likely on 12-13, 21-23, and 25 November and
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels likely on 21-22 November due
to recurrent CH HSS
effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 0425 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-11-07
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Nov 07 75
8 3
2016 Nov 08 75 20 4
2016 Nov 09
78 8 3
2016 Nov 10 78 10 3
2016
Nov 11 78 12 4
2016 Nov 12 78
20 5
2016 Nov 13 78 18 5
2016 Nov 14
78 10 3
2016 Nov 15 78 8 3
2016
Nov 16 78 5 2
2016 Nov 17 78
5 2
2016 Nov 18 78 5 2
2016 Nov 19
77 8 3
2016 Nov 20 75 15 4
2016
Nov 21 78 54 6
2016 Nov 22 78
42 6
2016 Nov 23 79 24 5
2016 Nov 24
79 18 4
2016 Nov 25 79 22 5
2016
Nov 26 78 18 4
2016 Nov 27 77
12 3
2016 Nov 28 77 10 3
2016 Nov 29
76 8 3
2016 Nov 30 76 8 3
2016
Dec 01 77 5 2
2016 Dec 02 77
5 2
2016 Dec 03 77 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
