Solar activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 6,
2016
Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux
(1.0-8.0 A): in the range A6.5-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in
the range 65-95 f.u.
Events: class C (0-1/day), class M (0-1/period), class X
(0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range
0-60
Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept.,
Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
Geomagnetic
activity forecast for the period September 30 - October 6,
2016
Quiet: Oct 5 - 6
Unsettled: Oct 3 - 4
Active: Sep 30 -
Oct 2
Minor storm: possible Sep 30 - Oct 1
Major storm:0
Severe storm:
0
Geomagnetic activity summary:
Currently, the active conditions
persist because of coronal hole reaching
from the northern polar cap to the
southern heliographic latitudes.
We expect active conditions (with possible
minor storm again) at least to
Oct 1, then, we predict turning to unsettled
conditions (with possible
isolated active episode, K=4) between Oct 3 - 4.
The following days, we
expect quiet to unsettled conditions
return.
Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR,
Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory
(BDV)
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 30 - October
26, 2016
Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on October 9 - 10, 13,
mostly quiet on October 7, 11, 14, 20,
quiet to unsettled on October 5 -
6, 8, 15 - 16, 19, 21,
quiet to active on October 1 - 3, 5, 12, 17 - 18, 23
- 24
active to disturbed on September 30, October 4, 22, 25 -
26
Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on
September 30, October 1 - 3 and 15 - 17.
Remark:
- Parenthesis means
lower probability of activity enhancement.
F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech
Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since
1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz
