:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 0103 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 19 - 25 September 2016
Solar activity reached low levels this
period due to isolated
C-class flare activity. Region 2595 (N11, L=099,
class/area=Dao/120
on 20 Sep) was the most productive region this period. In
addition
to multiple low-level C-class flares Region 2595 produced
the
largest event of the period, a C5 flare at 22/0547 UTC. Region
2597
(S13, L=349, class/area=Dsc/120 on 24 Sep) developed late in the
week
and produced an isolated C1 flare at 25/1914 UTC in addition to
numerous
B-class flares. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed this
period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous
orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached
high levels on 21 Sep, moderate levels on 22-23 Sep, and was
at
normal levels throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic
field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 20 Sep with
active levels observed on 21 Sep in response
to the influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. G1 (Minor) storm levels were
observed again on 25 Sep due to
prolonged periods of southward interplanetary
magnetic field
orientation. Quiet conditions were observed on 22-24 Sep and
quiet
to unsettled levels were observed on 19 Sep under a background
solar
wind environment.
FORECAST OF SOLAR & GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
26 SEPTEMBER-22 OCTOBER 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at very low
levels throughout the
period with a chance for C-class flare activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be
very high on 02 Oct with high levels expected on 29
Sep-01 Oct, 03-11 Oct,
and 18 Oct following periods of an enhanced
solar wind environment associated
with coronal hole high speed
stream influence. Normal and normal to moderate
flux levels are
expected throughout the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2
(Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 28-30 Sep and G1 (Minor) storm levels
on
26 Sep, 01-02 Oct, and 17 Oct due to the anticipated influence
of
multiple, recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind streams.
Active
conditions are expected on 27 Sep, 03 Oct, and 18 Oct with
generally quiet
and quiet to unsettled conditions likely throughout
the remainder of the
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2016 Sep 26 0104 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-09-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Sep 26 85
18 5
2016 Sep 27 85 12 4
2016 Sep 28
85 35 6
2016 Sep 29 85 35 6
2016
Sep 30 80 35 6
2016 Oct 01 80
25 5
2016 Oct 02 80 20 5
2016 Oct 03
80 16 4
2016 Oct 04 80 10 3
2016
Oct 05 85 8 3
2016 Oct 06 85
5 2
2016 Oct 07 85 5 2
2016 Oct 08
90 5 2
2016 Oct 09 90 5 2
2016
Oct 10 90 5 2
2016 Oct 11 90
5 2
2016 Oct 12 90 5 2
2016 Oct 13
90 5 2
2016 Oct 14 90 5 2
2016
Oct 15 95 8 3
2016 Oct 16 95
10 3
2016 Oct 17 95 20 5
2016 Oct 18
95 8 4
2016 Oct 19 90 5 2
2016
Oct 20 90 5 2
2016 Oct 21 90
5 2
2016 Oct 22 85 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
