:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 01 0641 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 25 - 31 January 2016
Solar activity was at very low to low
levels during the period. Low
levels were observed from 25-29 January with
Regions 2488 (N02,
L=320, class/area Dai/240 on 25 January) and 2489 (N10,
L=253,
class/area Eko/300 on 29 January) producing the majority of
the
C-class flaring. The largest flare of the period was a C9/1f
at
28/1202 UTC from Region 2488. Region 2488 was in slow decay over
the
period. Region 2489 continued to exhibit growth through 28 January
and
slowly decayed thereafter. Several filament eruptions, and
subsequent coronal
mass ejections (CMEs), were observed during the
period, but none had an
Earth-directed component.
No proton events were observed at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 25-27 January, moderate levels
on 28 January, and
normal levels from 29-31 January. The maximum flux of the
period was
2,117 pfu observed at 26/1500 UTC.
Geomagnetic field
activity was at mostly quiet levels throughout the
period with isolated
unsettled periods on 27-28 and 31 January and
an isolated active period
observed late on 31 January. Solar wind
parameters were in decline as the
period began under the waning
influence of a negative polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH
HSS). Solar wind speed gradually decreased from
approximately 480
km/s early in the period to around 260 km/s by 30 January
before
increasing slightly to 300 km/s by the end-of-the-period. A
solar
sector boundary crossing into a positive (away) orientation
occurred
at approximately 27/0834 UTC, accompanied by a slight increase
in
total field (Bt) measurements to 9 nT on 27 and 28 January. On
31
January, another increase in Bt to 10 nT was observed along with
a
prolonged period of southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded
with
isolated active levels to end the period.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 01 - 27 FEBRUARY 2016
Solar activity is expected to
be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) from 03-25
February with the return of old Regions 2484 (N08,
L=094) and 2488
(N02, L=320).
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high
levels likely
on 04-07, 09-15, and 18-23 February as a result of CH HSS
influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to
active
levels on 01 February due to continued effects from a
prolonged
period of southward Bz. Unsettled to active levels are likely
from
02-04, 08-09, and 17-20 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016
Feb 01 0641 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather
Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2016-02-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Feb 01 100
12 4
2016 Feb 02 100 12 4
2016 Feb 03
100 15 4
2016 Feb 04 100 8 3
2016
Feb 05 95 5 2
2016 Feb 06 90
5 2
2016 Feb 07 90 5 2
2016 Feb 08
95 12 4
2016 Feb 09 95 10 3
2016
Feb 10 95 8 3
2016 Feb 11 105
5 2
2016 Feb 12 105 5 2
2016 Feb 13
105 5 2
2016 Feb 14 105 5 2
2016
Feb 15 105 5 2
2016 Feb 16 105
5 2
2016 Feb 17 105 10 3
2016 Feb 18
105 15 4
2016 Feb 19 105 12 4
2016
Feb 20 105 10 3
2016 Feb 21 100
5 2
2016 Feb 22 100 5 2
2016 Feb 23
100 5 2
2016 Feb 24 100 5 2
2016
Feb 25 100 5 2
2016 Feb 26 100
5 2
2016 Feb 27 100 5 2
(SWPC via
DXLD)
