martedì 1 dicembre 2015

K7RA Solar Update

ARRL Headquarters was closed on Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which delayed this bulletin by several days. This week we return to the normal schedule, with a preview of the propagation bulletin in the ARRL Letter on Thursday, and the full bulletin on Friday.

Solar activity increased during the last reporting week, November 19-25 with average daily sunspot numbers increasing from 43.3 to 62.7, and average daily solar flux rising from 105.5 to 115.2.

Predicted solar flux is 95 on November 30, 100 on December 1, 105 on December 2-3, 110 on December 4-11, 105 on December 12, 100 on December 13-17, 105 on December 18-19 and 110 on December 20-26. Solar flux then p eaks at 115 on December 27-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 on November 30, 25 on December 1, 15 on December 2, 8 on December 3-5, then 12, 20 and 18 on December 6-8, then 8, 12, 10 and 8 on December 9-12, 5 on December 13-15, 8 on December 16, 5 on December 17-21, then 15, 10 and 8 on December 22-24 and 5 on December 25-31.

At 2317 UTC on November 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning. High speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole is expected to cause a minor geomagnetic disturbance on December 1 and 2 with a planetary K index of 5 possible.

OK1MGW expects active to disturbed geomagnetic conditions on November 30 through December 1, quiet to active conditions December 2-5, active to disturbed again on December 6, quiet to active December 7-8, quiet to 
unsettled December 9, quiet to active December 10, quiet to unsettled December 11-12, mostly quiet December 13, quiet to active December 14-15, mostly quiet De cember 16, and quiet on December 17-22...