venerdì 24 aprile 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period April 24 - 30, 2015

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B2.0-C1.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 100-150 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-7/period), class X (0/period),
        proton (0-1/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 20-105

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 24 - 30, 2015

The next day, Fri 24 April, we expect at the Budkov observatory quiet to
unsettled conditions.  During the weekend,  beginning at the Saturday 25
Apr, we expect also in Budkov an active episode episode but the K-index
should not expect K=4.
At the Monday 27 and Tuesday 28 April, the geomagnetic conditions are
expected at most unsettled. Last two days, we expect quiet to unsettled
conditions.
Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR
Geomagnetic observatory Budkov (BDV)
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Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period April 24 - May 20, 2015

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on April 26, May 11
mostly quiet on May 3 - 6, 10, 19 - 20
quiet to unsettled on April 28, May 16 - 18
quiet to active on April 24, 27, May 2, 9, 15
active to disturbed on April 25, 30, May 1, 7 - 8, 12
disturbed on April 29, May 13 - 14

Amplifications of the solar wind are still mostly unpredictable,
but some peaks are expected on April 24, May 3 - 5, 15 - 18, 20.

Remarks:
- Reliability of predictions is still reduced, disturbance rate
  is and remains elevated.
- Parentheses indicate a lower probability of increased activity.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)