:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Apr 20 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 April 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Numerous weak to
moderate level C-class flares were observed from Regions 2320 (S12,
L=211, class/area Dac/180 on 07 Apr), 2321 (N13, L=095, class/area
Ekc/620 on 13 Apr) and 2324 (N18, L=062, class/area Dko/410 on 15
Apr). The most significant event of the period occurred from Region
2321 on 18 April when the region produced a C5/1f flare at 18/1419
UTC. Associated with this event was a 7 degree long filament
eruption, centered near N05W16. The filament eruption resulted in an
asymmetric, faint full-halo CME, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 18/1524 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 13-15 April and high levels on 16-19 April.
Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 13-14 April at quiet
to active levels under the influence of a weak transient. By midday
on 15 April, field activity increased to active to minor storm
(G1-minor) levels as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in
advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS), influenced the magnetic field of Earth. Geomagnetic activity
increased to major storm (G2-moderate) levels late on 16 April due
to CH HSS effects and continued at active to minor storm levels
through midday on 17 April. Field activity relaxed to quiet to
unsettled levels through the remainder of the summary period as CH
HSS effects waned.
During the period, ACE solar wind parameters measured a high wind
speed of 784 km/s on 17/0408 UTC with a low speed of 286 km/s on
14/0004 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged from about 1-17 nT while the Bz
component varied between +13 to -12 nT. The phi angle was generally
in a negative (towards) orientation with intermittent periods of
rotation to a positive (away) sector.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 20 APRIL - 16 MAY 2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight
chance for moderate (R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels through 24 April
due to the flare potential from Region 2321. Very low to low levels
are expected from 25 April through 06 May. From 06-16 May, activity
levels are expected to increase to a chance for
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels upon the return of old Region 2321
(N11, L=092).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any
significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels from 20 April-06 May,
normal to moderate levels from 07-12 May and moderate to high levels
from 13-16 May.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 21 and 22 April due to CME effects.
Field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 14 May with unsettled to active conditions expected on 20,
25, 29-30 April and 01, 13 and 15 May, all due to CH HSS effects.
Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of
the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 20 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-04-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Apr 20 150 12 4
2015 Apr 21 150 35 6
2015 Apr 22 145 27 5
2015 Apr 23 140 12 4
2015 Apr 24 135 8 3
2015 Apr 25 130 12 4
2015 Apr 26 125 5 2
2015 Apr 27 130 5 2
2015 Apr 28 135 5 2
2015 Apr 29 135 12 4
2015 Apr 30 135 18 5
2015 May 01 135 12 4
2015 May 02 130 8 3
2015 May 03 130 5 2
2015 May 04 130 5 2
2015 May 05 130 5 2
2015 May 06 135 8 3
2015 May 07 140 8 3
2015 May 08 145 8 3
2015 May 09 145 5 2
2015 May 10 140 5 2
2015 May 11 135 5 2
2015 May 12 135 8 3
2015 May 13 135 15 4
2015 May 14 135 20 5
2015 May 15 135 12 4
2015 May 16 135 8 3
:Issued: 2015 Apr 20 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 April 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Numerous weak to
moderate level C-class flares were observed from Regions 2320 (S12,
L=211, class/area Dac/180 on 07 Apr), 2321 (N13, L=095, class/area
Ekc/620 on 13 Apr) and 2324 (N18, L=062, class/area Dko/410 on 15
Apr). The most significant event of the period occurred from Region
2321 on 18 April when the region produced a C5/1f flare at 18/1419
UTC. Associated with this event was a 7 degree long filament
eruption, centered near N05W16. The filament eruption resulted in an
asymmetric, faint full-halo CME, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery at 18/1524 UTC.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 13-15 April and high levels on 16-19 April.
Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 13-14 April at quiet
to active levels under the influence of a weak transient. By midday
on 15 April, field activity increased to active to minor storm
(G1-minor) levels as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in
advance of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS), influenced the magnetic field of Earth. Geomagnetic activity
increased to major storm (G2-moderate) levels late on 16 April due
to CH HSS effects and continued at active to minor storm levels
through midday on 17 April. Field activity relaxed to quiet to
unsettled levels through the remainder of the summary period as CH
HSS effects waned.
During the period, ACE solar wind parameters measured a high wind
speed of 784 km/s on 17/0408 UTC with a low speed of 286 km/s on
14/0004 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged from about 1-17 nT while the Bz
component varied between +13 to -12 nT. The phi angle was generally
in a negative (towards) orientation with intermittent periods of
rotation to a positive (away) sector.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 20 APRIL - 16 MAY 2015
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight
chance for moderate (R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels through 24 April
due to the flare potential from Region 2321. Very low to low levels
are expected from 25 April through 06 May. From 06-16 May, activity
levels are expected to increase to a chance for
(R1-R2/minor-moderate) levels upon the return of old Region 2321
(N11, L=092).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring any
significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels from 20 April-06 May,
normal to moderate levels from 07-12 May and moderate to high levels
from 13-16 May.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 21 and 22 April due to CME effects.
Field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 14 May with unsettled to active conditions expected on 20,
25, 29-30 April and 01, 13 and 15 May, all due to CH HSS effects.
Quiet to unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of
the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 20 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-04-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Apr 20 150 12 4
2015 Apr 21 150 35 6
2015 Apr 22 145 27 5
2015 Apr 23 140 12 4
2015 Apr 24 135 8 3
2015 Apr 25 130 12 4
2015 Apr 26 125 5 2
2015 Apr 27 130 5 2
2015 Apr 28 135 5 2
2015 Apr 29 135 12 4
2015 Apr 30 135 18 5
2015 May 01 135 12 4
2015 May 02 130 8 3
2015 May 03 130 5 2
2015 May 04 130 5 2
2015 May 05 130 5 2
2015 May 06 135 8 3
2015 May 07 140 8 3
2015 May 08 145 8 3
2015 May 09 145 5 2
2015 May 10 140 5 2
2015 May 11 135 5 2
2015 May 12 135 8 3
2015 May 13 135 15 4
2015 May 14 135 20 5
2015 May 15 135 12 4
2015 May 16 135 8 3
(SWPC via DXLD)
