lunedì 4 gennaio 2021

Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Jan 04 0144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 December - 03 January 2021

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. Regions 2794
(S16, L=346, class/area=Hsx/180 on 28 Dec) and 2795 (S19, L=317,
class/area=Cao/beta on 29 Dec) produced only B-class flare activity
throughout the week.

Multiple filament eruptions were observed between S30-50, near
center disk, on 01-02 Jan. Two CME signatures with likely
earth-directed components were deteced in LASCO C2 imagery at
01/2312 UTC and 02/1136 UTC. CME analysis and model outputs suggests
arrival of these CMEs late on 05 Jan/early on 06 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 29-30 Dec, and
quiet throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 January - 30 January 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for
C-class flare activity, throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 09-12 and 20-22 Jan. Normal and
normal-to-moderate flux levels are expected to prevail throughout
the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 05
Jan, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 06 Jan, due to the
anticipated arrival of a pair of CMEs from 01-02 Jan. Active
conditions are expected on 17-20 Jan due to the influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet-to-unsettled conditions
are exected to prevail throughout the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Jan 04 0144 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-01-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Jan 04 80 5 2
2021 Jan 05 78 10 4
2021 Jan 06 78 18 5
2021 Jan 07 78 8 3
2021 Jan 08 78 5 2
2021 Jan 09 78 5 2
2021 Jan 10 78 5 2
2021 Jan 11 78 5 2
2021 Jan 12 78 5 2
2021 Jan 13 78 5 2
2021 Jan 14 78 5 2
2021 Jan 15 80 5 2
2021 Jan 16 80 5 2
2021 Jan 17 82 10 4
2021 Jan 18 82 10 4
2021 Jan 19 82 10 4
2021 Jan 20 82 10 4
2021 Jan 21 82 5 2
2021 Jan 22 82 5 2
2021 Jan 23 82 5 2
2021 Jan 24 82 5 2
2021 Jan 25 82 8 3
2021 Jan 26 82 8 3
2021 Jan 27 82 5 2
2021 Jan 28 80 5 2
2021 Jan 29 80 5 2
2021 Jan 30 80 5 2