Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around
the
world.
Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio
Wave Propagation
Forecast.
It’s the only daily global HF radio wave
propagation forecast produced on
the planet.
I'm a retired
heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical
oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and
forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather
forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and
geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.
Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM
in Lakeland, FL, USA ©
1988-2018.
If you find this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel
free to drop me a line and let me
know that at
thomasfgiella@gmail.com
I enjoy
hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.
Hams and SWLs that are
interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave
propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their
knowledge in science.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute
this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it
in its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Supporting images
associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found
in my Facebook account at
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm
and
in my Twitter account at
https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm
Last
but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you
can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email. https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
but without
supporting images.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in
email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an
existing email address and creating a
password.
W4HM Solar Cycle 24
Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.
Solar
minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous
solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway
it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton
type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of
earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were
occurring which it isn’t.
On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar
cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That
forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non
nonexistent.
#171 Issued Thursday Jun 21, 2018 at 1545 UTC
At 1007
UTC on Thursday, June 21, 2018 astronomically summer began in the
northern
hemisphere and winter in the southern hemisphere. The solstice.
Important
Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-
Solar activity was
moderate.
The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 80.5
(((((82.1))))) 82.4
This is the highest 2000 UTC solar flux index number
(DSFI) value in a long
time.
There had been 9 days in a row with a
2000 UTC daily solar flux index number
(DSFI) greater than 70.
There
had been 1 day with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number (DSFI)
greater
than 80.
The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was
(((((54.)))))
This is the highest daily sunspot number (DSSN) value in a
long time.
There had been 9 days in a row with a daily sunspot number
(DSSN) greater
than 0.
In 2018 there had been 87 days with an
official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.
Sunspot group #12713 was
located near N05W37 with a slightly complex beta
magnetic signature capable
of releasing a very small in size B class solar
flare and an isolated small
in size C class solar flare.
Sunspot group #12714 was located near N07W66
with a slightly complex beta
magnetic signature capable of releasing a very
small in size B class solar
flare and an isolated small in size C class
solar flare.
Newly emerged sunspot group #12715 was located near N08E18
with a slightly
complex beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very
small in size B
class solar flare and an isolated small in size C class
solar flare.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had 3 simultaneous sunspot
groups on the
earth facing side of the sun.
The 24 hour period 3 hour
interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of
1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1.
The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed
ranged between
453 & 391 km/s.
Global Daily HF Radio Wave
Propagation Forecast-
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 22,
2018- improving.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 23,
2018- steady.
HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 24, 2018-
steady.
Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast
b-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night
and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz-
S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350,
15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990,
25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night
and S0 at day.
We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF
radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time
period.
During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz
frequency
range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the
ionosphere than in
the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) is lower
than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of
the ionosphere
is higher and the layer less concentrated.
Almost
daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that
the
25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via
short
north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also
when
multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
propagation (TEP).
Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast b-
3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at
night and S1-3
at day,
6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200
kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,
13570-13850, 14000-14350,
15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at
day,
21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,
24890-24990,
25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,
28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night
and S0 at day.
We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF
radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation
conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time
period.
During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz
frequency
range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the
ionosphere than
in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) is higher
than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the
ionosphere is lower
in height and more concentrated.
This HF Radio
wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave
propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but
I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does
outperform VOA CAP.
And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is
produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band
conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where
and when necessary.
I also check global HF radio wave propagation
conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and
tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.
And last but not
least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.
The
hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and
½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal
levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on
50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.
The hamateur radio SSB RF
mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40
feet.
The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based
on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain
array
antenna.
Please keep in mind that this is a relatively
simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily
understandable and applicable
by the average radio
enthusiast.
Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed
during
the summer and winter solstices.
Conditions change daily,
weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different
times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave
frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF),
lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by
propagation path.
The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio
wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es)
radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to
speak.
Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning
storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner
and
mostly bad.
Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on
also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative
manner.
Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are
impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable
frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due
to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5
&
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude
of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via
D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic
waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic
proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
Higher
frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative
manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular
propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to
elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also
D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background
solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies
greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF
PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The
propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property.
Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein
is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved.
Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance
as long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the following indices have
to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency
radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.
1.)
Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.)
A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily
sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10,
fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.
5.) Previous 3
hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high
latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic
protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background x-ray flux levels
greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1
best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) Interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of
high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering
of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -10 or
better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a
geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive
number is best.
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use error prone RAW
public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S.
government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF
radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the
U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).
However this
daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data
is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM.
Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this
daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in
its entirety and
give me credit for it.
Also HF radio wave propagation
forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The
forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes
only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee
or warranty implied.
