Note the A and K indices for June 22 and 23!
:Product: Weekly Highlights
and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Jun 22 0548 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 15 - 21 June 2015
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels.
Weak to mid-level
C-class flares were observed on 15-17 Jun from Regions 2360
(N15,
L=129, class/area Eac/220 on 12 Jun), 2367 (S20, L=002,
class/area
Ekc/400 on 15 Jun), 2268 (S06, L=100, class/area Bxo/010 on 14
Jun)
and 2371 (N13, L=302, class/area Fkc/1180 on 21 Jun).
Activity
increased to moderate levels (R1-minor) on 18 Jun. Old Region
2365
(S13, L=079) produced a long duration event (LDE) M1 flare at
18/0127
UTC. At 18/1736 UTC, Region 2371 produced an M3/1n LDE with
associated Type
IV and Tenflare (2200 sfu) radio emissions.
Associated with this event was an
asymmetric, full-halo CME first
visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1724 UTC.
19 Jun saw a return to low levels with weak to high-level
C-class
flares observed from Region 2371. At about 19/0500 UTC, a
large
filament eruption was observed in the SSE quadrant of the
disk.
Associated with this eruption was a partial-halo CME, first
observed
in LASCO C2 imagery at 19/0845 UTC. Moderate levels returned on
20
Jun with an M1/if flare observed at 20/0648 UTC. 21 Jun saw a total
of
4 M-class class flares. Region 2371 produced an M2/1n flare at
21/0142 UTC
with associated Type II (682 km/s) and Type IV radio
emissions. Also
associated with this event was a full-halo CME.
Shortly afterward, this same
region produced an M2.6 x-ray event. At
21/0944 UTC, Region 2367 produced an
M3/2b flare followed by an M1
x-ray event at 21/1820 UTC.
A pair of
10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton events
were observed at
geosynchronous orbit. The first event began at
18/1135 UTC, reached a maximum
of 16 pfu at 18/1445 UTC and ended at
19/0230 UTC. This event was associated
with the M1 flare from old
Region 2365 observed at 18/0127 UTC. The second
event began at
21/2035 UTC and reached at peak of near 50 pfu at the end of
the
summary period and was still rising. This event was associated
with
the M1 flare from Region 2367 observed at 21/1820 UTC.
The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels
through the entire summary period.
Geomagnetic field activity was at
quiet to active levels through the
period. Quiet to unsettled levels were
observed on 15-17 Jun with
isolated active periods observed on 15 and 17 Jun.
This activity was
due to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS)
effects. Solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE
satellite,
indicated wind speeds of near 600 km/s early on 15 Jun decreasing
to
about 450 km/s by the end of the 17th. Total field ranged between
4-8
nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi angle was
in a
predominately positive (away) orientation. Predominately quiet
conditions
were observed on 18 Jun through late on 21 June. Solar
wind speeds decreased
from about 450 km/s early on 18 June to near
275 km/s by 21/1540 UTC. During
this same time frame, total field
ranged between 1-6 nT, Bz varied between +4
nT to -3 nT and phi
remained mostly positive. After 21/1540 UTC, wind speed
increased to
about 360 km/s, Bt increased to 12 nT, Bz varied between +8 nT
to -7
nT and phi briefly rotated to a negative (towards) sector.
This
deviation indicated a possible co-rotating interaction region
in
advance of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
FORECAST OF
SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 22 JUNE - 18 JULY 2015
Solar activity is
expected to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2,
minor-moderate). Active
Regions 2367 and 2371, and the return of old
Region 2365 on 30 Jun, are
expected to keep activity levels enhanced
through the outlook period.
The 10 MeV at greater than or equal to 10 pfu proton flux
at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at the S1 (minor) to
S2
(moderate) levels through 24 Jun. Effects from the 21 Jun M1
flare,
coupled with multiple shocks from the 18, 19 and 21 Jun CMEs,
are
expected to keep proton flux above event levels.
The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 22 Jun through 06
Jul. Moderate to high levels are
expected on 07-18 Jul due to CH HSS
effects.
Geomagnetic field
activity is expected to be at unsettled to severe
storm levels (G1-G3,
minor-strong) on 22-24 Jun. This activity is
due to the expected arrival of
the three CMEs from 18, 19 and 21
Jun. Unsettled to active periods are
expected on 06-08 Jul, 12-13
Jul and 18 Jul, along with minor storm periods
(G1-minor) on 05 and
11 Jul, due to CIR/CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet
to unsettled
levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued:
2015 Jun 22 0548 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space
Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2015-06-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Jun 22 135
60 7
2015 Jun 23 130 42 6
2015 Jun 24
125 15 4
2015 Jun 25 125 8 3
2015
Jun 26 130 5 2
2015 Jun 27 130
5 2
2015 Jun 28 125 5 2
2015 Jun 29
120 5 2
2015 Jun 30 125 5 2
2015
Jul 01 125 5 2
2015 Jul 02 125
5 2
2015 Jul 03 125 5 2
2015 Jul 04
125 5 2
2015 Jul 05 120 25 5
2015
Jul 06 120 15 4
2015 Jul 07 125
12 4
2015 Jul 08 125 10 3
2015 Jul 09
125 5 2
2015 Jul 10 125 8 3
2015
Jul 11 130 18 5
2015 Jul 12 130
12 4
2015 Jul 13 130 8 3
2015 Jul 14
130 5 2
2015 Jul 15 130 5 2
2015
Jul 16 130 5 2
2015 Jul 17 130
5 2
2015 Jul 18 130 8 3
(SWPC via
DXLD)
