lunedì 18 giugno 2018

domenica 17 giugno 2018

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-167

Just an FYI I have lowered the price of my Kenwood R-2000 to $225. If
interested contact me at thomasfgiella@gmail.com for more information.

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather
forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ©
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm


Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
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supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#167 Issued Sunday Jun 17, 2018 at 1500 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.7 70.5 70.2

There had been 5 days in a row with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number
(DSFI) greater than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 13.

There had been 5 days in a row with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater
than 0.

In 2018 there had been 87 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

Sunspot group #12713 was located near N05E16 with a slightly complex beta
magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small in size B class solar
flare and an isolated small in size C class solar flare.

#12713 released 1 A class and 1 B class solar flare, the largest being a
B1.6.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of

0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

307 & 281 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 17, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 18, 2018- minor
deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” Jun 19, 2018- minor
deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in
the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower
than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere
is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that
the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via
short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also
when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than
in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher
than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower
in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Media & Tech - 17/06/2018

Log Roberto Pavanello

828 13/6 22.35 Hit FM - Terrasa SS ID e MX buono
828 17/6 08.45 Z100 - IT MX buono
837 11/6 22.40 COPE - Sevilla SS ID e pubblicità locale buono
945 14/6 22.40 Smooth R. - Bexhill EE ID e MX buono
1539 12/6 22.35 R. Elche - SS ID e pubblicità locale buono
1584 11/6 22.35 R. Gandia - SS ID e pubblicità locale suff.
1584 11/6 22.30 Free R. AM - Trieste IT MX buono
1620 15/6 22.30 R. Barones - EE ID e MX buono
1646 15/6 22.35 R. Vrolijke Mijnwerker - Dutch UD e MX buono
3330 16/6 02.15 CHU - Ottawa EE/.FF ID e pip pip suff.
4765 16/6 02.30 R. Progreso - Habana SS NX buono
4875 16/6 02.40 R. Roraima - Boa Vista PP MX suff.
4885 16/6 03.05 R. Clube do Parà - Belem PP MX buono
5000 16/6 03.00 WWV - Fort Collins EE ID e pip pip suff.
5140 10/6 20.10 R. Charleston Int. - Tedesco -ID e MX buono
6070 16/6 02.45 CFRX - Toronto EE talk buono
6185 16/6 02.50 R. Educacion - Mexico DF SS MX suff.
6205 13/6 22.25 Laser Hot Hits - EE ID e MX buono
6238 16/6 22.40 R. Lowland -  EE ID e MX buono
6275 16/6 23.00 R. Johnny Tobacco - EE ID e MX buono
6310 13/6 22.30 R. Harmony - EE ID e MX buono
9955 16/6 02.55 WRMI - Miami SS MX buono
10000 11/6 20.35 Obs. Nac. - Rio de Janeiro PP ID e ora suff.
11530 10/6 16.40 Denge Welat -  Curdo talk buono
11735 11/6 20.30 Zanzibar BC - Swahili live phone buono
11735 14/6 20.25 R. Transmundial - Santa Maria PP MX suff.
11750 11/6 16.45 Sri Lanka BC - Colombo Cingalese MX buono
11780 15/6 20.20 R. Nac. Amazonas - Brasilia PP NX suff.
11855 15/6 20.15 R. Aparecida - PP MX suff.
11955 16/6 09.00 AWR - Firenze IT Obiettivo DX by Roberto Scaglione buono

Roberto Pavanello
Vercelli / Italia

Glenn Hauser logs June 16-17, 2018

** CUBA. 15140, June 16 at 1944, RHC English is S8-S9 but dead air, or just barely modulated.

11860, June 16 at 1949, RHC European service is also JBM. Something`s always wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NEW ZEALAND. 13839.955 approx., June 17 at 0054, RNZI is about the OSOB, and slightly off-frequency, maybe signature of the backup transmitter? Others have seemed a bit off, but not bothered to measure as I expect to from now on. BTW, Dan Sheedy had RNZI on 9700 instead of 5980 at 1401 June 16, as I did on June 13, but not every day (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NORTH AMERICA. 6930-USB, June 17 at 0124, pirate with Alan Sherman`s ``Hello Muddah, Hello Faddah``, then ``Monster Mash``, both before wild audiences. S9 vs noise level about S7. Many logs here say it was Underground Radio, especially on the SSTV images:
https://www.hfunderground.com/board/index.php/topic,43454.0.html
For a Saturday night, not much activity: earlier pirate bandscans this session circa 0040 and 0111 I heard none (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** SPAIN. 15520, June 16 at 1945, REE is dead air or JBM; while 17855 is S9+10 with interview, not game (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 15730, June 16 at 1946, S9/S9+10 of dead air from VOA GB. In this case it`s just warming up for the 2000 French to Africa; but is burning 250 kW for an extra 14+ minutes really necessary? If so might as well modulate it with something at least disposable, or bonus. 2023 with soul music; godforbid VOA should ever play a note of classical (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. WORLD OF RADIO 1934 monitoring: confirmed Saturday June 16 at 2327 the 2300 on WRMI 7780, very poor. Also confirmed UT Sunday June 17 at 0223 the 0200 on WRMI 7780, also very poor. Aimed NE, I sure hope these are doing much better along the east coast, even Europe. Also confirmed UT Sunday June 17 at 0401, fair on WA0RCR, 1860-AM, Wentzville MO, about 14 minutes into show, so started late circa 0347. Next:
Sun 1030   HLR 9485-CUSB to WSW
Sun 1900   WRMI 9395 to NNW
Sun 2330   WBCQ 9330v to WSW [maybe]
Mon 0130.5 WRMI 5850 to NW, 7780 to NE
Mon 0300v  WBCQ 5130v Area 51 to WSW
Mon 0330   WRMI 9955 to SSE
Mon 0400   WRMI webcast only, non-direxional
Mon 2330   WBCQ 9330v to WSW [maybe]
Tue 0030   WRMI 7730 to WNW
Tue 2030   WRMI 7780 to NE, 5950 to WNW [or #1935?]
Tue 2130   WRMI 7780 to NE, 5950 to WNW [or #1935?]

Full schedule for WOR on all outlets, not just SW; podcast linx:
http://www.worldofradio.com/radioskd.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 15809.9, June 17 at 0058, bandscanning up the 15 MHz band I have almost concluded it`s NoSOB --- no stations on band until I hit this bigsig of S9+25! Like last Saturday night, WTWW-3 is active again and // WTWW-2 on 5085, S9+35 with rock music. But 15809.9 sounds awful, lo-fi, distorted, compared to 5085, and modulation level is chopping down and up. 0059 ``WTWW`` singing ID, unlegal as call letters only. Then another tune; 5085 is also slightly distorted. 0104 finally full legal ID, and into `Theater Organ in the Ozarx`, as Bob Heil again claims to be ``live``, and a ``new format, a little different than before`` --- I guess that means less talk, more music as his next announcement does not come until 0117. This week he`s performing on an Alun/Alan/Allan/Allen/Allyn Organ with three keyboards, and employing a number of sounds not found on theater organs. Now 15809.9 modulation has improved, but level still cutting down and up. Presumably both will still be on 0500+ for `Southern Talk at Midnight` until at least 0700.

As for this lone signal on 19m, no doubt it`s by sporadic E, and may very well be the only broadcaster in the entire Western Hemisphere active on the band at this hour; while those active in daytime Asia are simply not propagating by ordinary F-layer. And we *know* there are none in the south Pacific, with NZ now down on 13840- (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 5050, UT Sunday June 17 at 0102, while tuned for 5085 WTWW, just in time I remember also to check for WWRB, hearing only a bigsig carrier with some squeals before it cuts off, anyhow confirming WWRB was on tonight. How about UT Monday and Tuesday like it used to be on 90m? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 11905, June 17 at 0051, VP S-0.5 with flutter, South Asian? music. But gone at 0100, and nothing at 0114-0116 when one expects to hear SLBC from *0115v. HFCC, EiBi and Aoki show nothing before 0100 (and HFCC doesn`t show SLBC at all). But all have CNR6 southward from Beijing in Amoy starting at 0100 --- I have *never* heard any sign of that when checking for SLBC circa 0115. Very strange. Possibly: what I heard was SLBC pre-checking but failing to come back on at normal time; or a major schedule change (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 0455 UT June 17

Studio DX 781 - 17/06/2018

Obiettivo DX 781 - 17/06/18

Agenda DX 17/06/2018

sabato 16 giugno 2018

Propagation de K7RA

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024

ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA



ZCZC AP24

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA  June 15, 2018

To all radio amateurs



SB PROP ARL ARLP024

ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA



Sunspots returned a few days ago after a 7-day absence. Average

daily sunspot number dropped from 12.9 in last week's report to 4

this week. Average daily solar flux dropped from 73.2 to 69.4.

Geomagnetic conditions were quieter with average daily planetary A

index declining from 11.7 to 4.4 and mid-latitude A index from 10.4

to 5.1.



Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 15-21, 75 on June 22-23, 74 on

June 24-25, 73 on June 26, 72 on June 27-28, 71 on June 29-30, 70 on

July 1-3, 69 on July 4-6, 70 on July 7, 72 on July 8-14, 73 on July

15, 74 on July 16-17, 75 on July 18-20, 74 on July 21-22, 73 on July

23, 72 on July 24-25, 71 on July 26-27 and 70 on July 28-29.



Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 15-26, then 15, 28, 18 and

10 on June 27-30, 5 on July 1-8, 8 on July 9-11, 5 on July 12-15, 8

on July 16, 5 on July 17-23, then 15, 25, 15, 8 on July 24-27 and 5

on July 28-29.



Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 23-24. Predicted planetary A

index of 5 on both days is a welcome indicator of undisturbed

conditions, as are the predicted solar flux values of 75 and 74.



The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov:



"Dear Tad,



"Have I ever mentioned forecasting Space Weather is hard? One would

think that with all the spacecraft and instruments we have trained

on the Sun, we would be able to do so much better than we do.  This

week is a perfect example of that. Just eight and a half days ahead

of us (in terms of weather that is) sits the STEREO-A spacecraft. It

sees solar features before we do at Earth and gets to sample the

solar wind created by these features on the Sun a little more than a

week before we do. Watching data from STEREO-A is a great way to

know what is coming. Except when it doesn't.



"This is of those times. Though STEREO-A gives us a great look into

the future, I must constantly remind myself how quickly things

change on the Sun. The coronal hole that was open just 8 days ago,

likely closed up a bit as it rotated to the Earth-strike zone. Not

only that, but right now, STEREO-A is about six degrees further

south in solar latitude than is Earth. Obviously, in this case that

makes a huge difference.



"So this week, we are only being brushed by a fast wind stream that

is flowing mostly south of Earth. I had hoped for a mini-solarstorm

that would bring us aurora, both in pictures and in propagation

modes, but it looks like we will need to wait for a change in the

weather. As STEREO-A creeps ever closer to us in its slow approach

to Earth, it can give us great insights into what things will be

like tomorrow.  But nothing is ever a guarantee. It's a good lesson

to remember.



"Cheers, Tamitha."



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUSd2293p_I



Her report from a few days earlier:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-Qo4aqldDc



Gert Carlsson, AA7G sends along this information on the IY4M

interactive beacon robot:



http://www.cqdx.ru/ham/ham_radio/iy4m-marconi-cw-beacon-robot/



Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina reported on June

9:



"I am here in my shack in central NC, truly amazed.  41 years in the

hobby; that does not happen too often these days.  Surprises, yes.

Pure amazement, infrequent.



"But here I sit.  It's 2300 LOCAL time (0300 UTC), I called CQ on 17

meters FT8 with 25 watts and a 160 meter inverted L with a remote

coupler at the base.  I got a reply from JH7VHZ.  This is a

non-directional wire, no gain, 90 feet vertical and 42 feet angled

down 45 degrees, with 20 radials, in a forest of pine trees, fed

with 300 feet of coax from my shack.  At 11 PM local!  And HE called

ME.  Sure it was FT8, but that's not the point.



"Last time I worked JA from east coast on the higher bands (it's not

that common for me here, with my antenna setup) was two years ago on

15 meters in the ARRL DX SSB contest.  Sure I can occasionally hear

them, very weak, but it's not easy to get through.  (Of course it's

much easier on 40 meters than 20/17/15)



"The last time I worked JA at that late an hour when it was NOT on

40 meters, was September 2012, on SSB on 20.  Before that, it was 21

years ago when I was closer to the ocean in Florida, so I had better

propagation.



"And before that time in 1997, it was 1979, I was in W6 land, the

bands were ON FIRE, I had a dipole at 20 feet on a hill about a mile

from the Pacific ocean, and 15 meters was open well past sunset to

JA and UA0 out west.  I used to run CW pileups in DX contests at

high speed until 10 PM local on 10 meters, then switch to 15 meters

until midnight, then work them on 20 until I fell asleep at my desk

around 0200 (oh how I wish I had that energy of a 14 year old

today.)



"But I digress.



"We complain (well, I COMPLAIN) about the poor band conditions, but

maybe it's also factor of not having more activity during sunspot

cycle lows.  FT8 is a game changer, and it seems like activity has

really increased, especially DX.



"On 17 meters FT8, I am also copying E5 and UA9.  VERY strong.  On

FT8 on 20 meters, I am copying VK/ZL, EU, 9K.  All very workable,

very strong.  20 seems to be what it was at sunspot peak, always

open, frequently capable of worldwide DX especially at night.  Now

THAT is how I remember 1979.  20 was ALWAYS open.  Like it is

tonight."



Bob Lombardi, W4ATM of Melbourne, Florida on June 11 wrote:



"I had been starting to refer to the sporadic-E propagation we had

from about June 1st and well into last week as 'The Great Sporadic-E

Opening of June 2018.'  Morning checks on DXMaps would show the

density of transatlantic propagation to/from Europe at densities

I've never seen.  For the first time in my life, I saw DX contacts

reported from Japan into the SE US one evening, including one into

my grid square.  (I was having dinner and missed the brief chance).



'I've been operating on 6m since about '03, and the June contest has

always been the most productive weekend of the year for me.  Last

year, after hearing about this new thing called FT8 while following

DX spots, I started experimenting with that mode and have played

with it a bit.  Not expert level, but I know my way around it.



"Last Monday, my country total in Europe went from 1 to 4.



"I suppose the attack of Murphy's Law for the contest was

predictable, but Saturday was the worst day I've seen since late

May.  Sunday was better, but new grids were hard to find, and my

ultimate hope of completing my 6-meter WAS never had a chance.  Not

one KH6 or KL7 to the mainland was seen all weekend.  The vast

majority of the grid locators I heard were among the first I ever

worked: FN, FM, EM and the eastern half of EN.  I did manage to work

a few Canadian grid squares I've never gotten before, into

Saskatchewan and Alberta, and a couple in the lower 48.



"Of course, there's a reason it's called 'sporadic,' and what little

we had this weekend was better than nothing, but what a contest it

would have been if the propagation hadn't peaked a week before the

contest.



"I'm left to wonder if this really was a June sporadic-E season for

the record books or if it's some combination of more people online

and reporting, more activity on 6, or the influence of FT8.  The few

times I looked at the modes being reported, it seemed 80 of the

reports were FT8."



Jeff, N8II reported:



"I worked CT1ESV, Portugal today June 14 at 2230Z, S8 on 10M phone.

DXMAPS.com showed NA stations working S01WS Western Sahara on 6M FT8

and there were NA to EU QSOs too."



F.K. Janda, OK1HH reports.



"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 15 to July 10,

2018



"Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on June 20-24, July 2-3

Quiet to unsettled on June 16-19

Quiet to active on June 15, 25, July 1

Unsettled to active on June (26, 30)

Active to disturbed on June (27,) 28, (29)



"Solar wind will intensify on June (15,) 16-17, (18-19,

22-24, 26,) 27-29, (30,) July 1, (9-10)



"Remark:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- Due to planned trips, this forecast will not be compiled from June

  21st (or 28th) to July 5th."



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,

email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .



For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL

Technical Information Service web page at,

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of

numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.



An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good

information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.



Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve

overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.



Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL

bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.



Sunspot numbers for June 7-13, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 16,

with a mean of 4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.3, 68.2, 66.8, 70.2, 69.9,

70.3, and 70.8, with a mean of 69.4. Estimated planetary A indices

were 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, and 5, with a mean of 4.4. Estimated

mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 7, with a mean of

5.1.

NNNN

/EX

Glenn Hauser logs June 16, 2018

** CHINA. 11900, June 16 at 1406, CNR1 echo-jamming. Victim is: VOA Philippines in Chinese, this hour only (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST) see also EAST TURKISTAN; CUBA

** CUBA. 13700, June 16 at 1330, RHC undermodulated, much softer than // 13740, and 13700 also noticeably weaker signal. At least no spurs today. Something`s always wrong at RHC.

13700, June 16 at 1400 is still JBM; and 13740 is dead air from only one transmitter. Not until 1404:09 does modulation cut on from China Plus in English. Something`s always wrong at RadioCuba.

11760, June 16 at 1402, RHC is well modulated here, with plug for 13th Festival Internacional de Coros, 26-30 junio en La Habana; no, not a tribute to Arnie`s family, but choral performances with some nice classical music bits. 1403 opening `Cartas a la Redaccin` which is not a mailbag: its announced times are Sat 10 am and 11 pm, Sunday 4 am always Cuban time = Sat 14, UT Sun 03 & 09, the latter when no SW transmitters should be on air (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** EAST TURKISTAN. 15590, fair June 16 at 1334, something in American English; therefore, it must be China Plus: yes, // 9570 via Cuba, and 15590 is CRI, Urumqi at 12-15 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** FRANCE. 11730, June 16 at 0549, for the second night, NHK relay is buzzless, modulation OK. Need to keep checking whether it resume (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** SPAIN. 17855, Saturday June 16 at 1413, REE is poor to North America, only S7-S4, playing music, even worse on // 15520. There`s got to be a silly ballgame from Moskva right now airing worldwide, but REE must not have rights to it; and surely no local football games available to compete with it (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** TAJIKISTAN. 15745, June 16 at 1333, talk in unID language, poor with flutter, and carrier is also wobbling. NDXC/Aoki shows RFA Tibetan via Dushanbe at 11-14. Presumably any jamming would achieve a stabler signal (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** UGANDA [non]. 9370, Saturday June 16 at 1409, still no signal from R. Munansi via WWRB, also missing last weekend. Nor on 15240. At 1508 I try UTwente SDR: 9370 has VP signal in somelang, but not this; rather, VOA Burmese via Thailand at 1430-1530. 15240 only splash from 15245, while 15240 here bears a JBA carrier not off-frequency-minus like WWRB. If it were WWRB, this too would be inbooming like sporadic-E neighbor 15825 WWCR. 

Nothing scheduled on 15240 this hour, but would you believe that HFCC A-18 still has an entry from Radio Ukraine International in Ukr and Eng at 14-15, via Simferopol`? O, it`s ``reserv``, so in case of a comeback? DHYB (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A [and non]. WORLD OF RADIO 1934 monitoring: not confirmed the Saturday June 16 1431 on HLR 6190-CUSB: UTwente has nothin` but noise at 1446 and 1459 chex. And Alan Gale, UK, reports on the same:

``Hi Glenn, Not a thing heard on 6190 kHz today, other than the usual annoying heterodyne, but I wasn't able to see if World of Radio faded in again during the final 10 minutes as we had a nasty thunderstorm at 1440 UT, so the radio was off and all the aerials grounded here for the final 20 minutes. 6 MHz has seemed very flat during the afternoons recently, so I wasn't that hopeful of hearing anything anyway. Alan``

Next:
Sat 1930v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND
Sat 2130   WBCQ 9330v to WSW [maybe, or 2330?]
Sat 2300   WRMI 7780 to NE
Sun 0200   WRMI 7780 to NE 
Sun 0310v  WA0RCR 1860-AM ND
Sun 1030   HLR 9485-CUSB to WSW
Sun 1900   WRMI 9395 to NNW
Sun 2330   WBCQ 9330v to WSW [maybe]
Mon 0130.5 WRMI 5850 to NW, 7780 to NE
Mon 0300v  WBCQ 5130v Area 51 to WSW
Mon 0330   WRMI 9955 to SSE
Mon 0400   WRMI webcast only, non-direxional
Mon 2330   WBCQ 9330v to WSW [maybe]
Tue 0030   WRMI 7730 to WNW
Tue 2030   WRMI 7780 to NE, 5950 to WNW [or #1935?]
Tue 2130   WRMI 7780 to NE, 5950 to WNW [or #1935?]

Full schedule for WOR on all outlets, not just SW; podcast linx:
http://www.worldofradio.com/radioskd.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 5950 // 9395, June 16 at 0556, WRMI Oldies on both. A few minutes earlier had VOA News relay. Skedgrid shows these two match Oldies only at 0500-0800 & 2300-2330 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 13845, June 16 at 1329, S9+20 of dead air except for some hum, from WWCR-3. I leave a radio on here while I am breaking my non-Ramadan fast, and beyond --- still dead at 1359, 1413, 1536+. Supposed to be nothing but so-called University Network Saturdays 12-24 UT unlike programming otherdays with not quite so much of that. 

2+ hours of wasted 100 kW and probably much more to follow. Not that anyone in his right mind would really want to hear DGS or PMS, but yet another example of failing SW station management: turn it on and forget it, let the computers mis-handle it, don`t bother to monitor own signal or set up a silence-sensor alarum. Will PMS get a refund? She`s not listening, either. Of course the lack of programming could be her fault from the LA satfeed. No Anguilla on 11775 to compare.

BTW, the bigsig here and on S9+20/30, 15825 modulating OK are due to summertime sporadic E/short skip on HF if not VHF. At 1630, PMS is back on 13845, maybe earlier as signal has faded way down (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 9265V, June 16 at 1408, WINB is already on this Saturday from *1330, vs scheduled *2000 M-F, with very wobbling carrier. Sign-on time keeps shifting according to quantity of program bookings, and WINB does amazingly well with such a crummy signal. Most of their clients probably never try to hear themselves, proceeding on Faith.

Also, I have been wondering if anyone has heard the alleged DRM tests from WINB, M-F 11-17 on 15665-15670-15675? Nothing obvious about it on WINB homepage. There is some discussion of that in the drmna yg, and drmnainfo.blogspot, but not about the programming (and nothing scheduled on 9265 that early weekdays), rather about part of the DRM signal apparently being encrypted data. What *is* the spoken programming in DRM? Surely more gospel-huxtering.

Kim Elliott adds on the WOR iog June 16: ``Using SDRs in southern Europe, I've been hearing it on 15670 after 1100 UT (Mon-Fri) sign-on. The audio will decode for a few seconds at a time. Later in the day WINB is audible through SDRs in the USA, with audio occasionally lasting for longer stretches. I am using Dream software with KiwiSDRs.  This can be done, but it requires multiple steps that I can explain later. Reception through standalone DRM receivers might be better, though I'm not sure why. Kim``

BTW, while I have the WINB program sked up, I look thru every line for any title seemingly secular: the *only* one is: Jazzify-Rockphesy Sat-10:30PM ET = UT Sunday 0230. The hotlinx to this and other programs are 404, but audio on demand to some. In the case of Jazzify-Rockphesy, the 58:12 file is nothing but dead air/noise only! Another automation failure. Seems like I`ve seen that title on some other station, WRMI? But unfound now.

Web search on that unique name gets only 4 G-hits, including:
https://www.verdurepro.net/
which abottom shows 10:30 pm EDT Sat on WINB 9265 --- AND: Sunday night at 9:30 pm EDT on WRMI 9955. Jazzify is on WINB at 0230 [UT Sunday], and Rockphesy follows at 0300, while WRMI has only Rockphesy --- but WRMI program skedgrid now shows Wavescan at 0130 UT Monday on 9955.

The sparse website, no hint as to physical location, has a Gallery page with nothing to see except linx to sample programs, 
https://www.verdurepro.net/gallery
but also a dead giveaway it is NOT secular, with ``Song or Prayer Requests`` --- so, never mind. WINB does occasionally book special airings of music programs, pseudo-pirates from Europe (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 1818 UT June 16

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-166

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my not for profit daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

Its the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather
forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm

Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email. https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without
supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earths climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isnt.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#166 Issued Saturday Jun 16, 2018 at 1330 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 70.9 70.6 71.9

There had been 4 days in a row with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number
(DSFI) greater than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 13.

There had been 4 days in a row with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater
than 0.

In 2018 there had been 87 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

Sunspot group #12713 was located near N05E30 with a slightly complex beta
magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small in size B class solar
flare and an isolated small in size C class solar flare.

#12713 released 1 A class and 3 B class solar flares, the largest being a
B6.0.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 318 &
284 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 16, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 17, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 18, 2018- minor
deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in
the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower
than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere
is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that
the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via
short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also
when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than
in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher
than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower
in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980s but Im sorry to say that it cant be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted  1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

SWLDXBulgaria News, June 15-16

BANGLADESH   Fair signal of Bangladesh Betar on June 16
1315-1345 on  9455 DKA 250 kW / 320 deg to SoAs Nepali:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/fair-signal-of-bangladesh-betar-on-june.html

EGYPT   Unidentified station with Egyptian music, June 16:
0900-0920 on  9400 unknown tx / unknown to ????, fair/good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/unidentified-station-with-egyptian_16.html

FRANCE(non)  NHK World Japan Network Radio Japan via TDF Issoudun June 16
0500-0530 on 11970 ISS 500 kW / 155 deg to SoAf English, fair/good signal
0600-0630 on 11975 ISS 500 kW / 140 deg to NoAf Arabic, very good signal,
NO SIGNAL on 11970 KBD 250 kW / 100 deg to SoAs English DRM Radio Kuwait
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/nhk-world-japan-network-radio-japan-via_16.html

GERMANY(non)   Lutheran World Federation/Voice of Gospel via MBR Issoudun, June 15
1830-1900 on 15315 ISS 500 kW / 180 deg to WCAf Fulfulde Sawtu Linjilia, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/lutheran-world-federationvoice-of_16.html

GERMANY(non)   Radio Waves International RWI via Channel 292, June 16
0600-0700 on  6070 ROB 025 kW / non-dir to CeEu French Sat, fair/good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-radio-waves-international.html

GERMANY   Reception of Evangelische Missions Gemeinden via MBR Nauen, June 16
1030-1100 on  6055 NAU 125 kW / 222 deg to CeEu German Sat/Sun, weak to fair:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-evangelische-missions_16.html

GUAM   Reception of KTWR Trans World Radio Asia in English, June 16
1230-1300 on 12160 TWR 100 kW / 290 deg to SoAs English Sat, fair:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-ktwr-trans-world-radio_16.html

PHILIPPINES   FEBC via tx Iba vs.FEBC via tx Bocaue on 15450 kHz, June 16
0900-1000 on 15450 IBA 100 kW / 330 deg to EaAs Hui zu/Zhuang, very good
0930-1000 on 15450 BOC 100 kW / 245 deg to SEAs Minangkabau is very weak
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/febc-via-tx-iba-vsfebc-via-tx-bocaue-on_16.html

PHILIPPINES   Reception of Radio Veritas Asia in Vietnamese on June 16
1300-1357 on 11850 PUG 250 kW / 280 deg to SEAs Vietnamese, fair/good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-radio-veritas-asia-in.html

ROMANIA(non)   Reception of IRRS Radio City via ROU RadioCom, June 16
0800-0900 on  9510 SAF 100 kW / 300 deg to WeEu German Sat, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-irrs-radio-city-via-rou_16.html

SECRETLAND(non)   Radio Nigeria Hausa Sce/Radio of Truth via SPL Secretbrod, June 15
1800-1900 on 15110 SCB 050 kW / 195 deg to WeAf Hausa Radio Na Gaskiya, fair to good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/radio-nigeria-hausa-sceradio-of-truth_16.html

TAJIKISTAN(non)    Frequency changes of Voice of Tibet on June 16
1200-1205 NF 11646 DB  100 kW / 095 deg to EaAs Chinese, ex 11513
1205-1230 NF 11656 DB  100 kW / 095 deg to EaAs Chinese, ex 11507
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/frequency-changes-of-voice-of-tibet-on.html

TURKEY   Voice of Turkey on odd freqs 13765.7/11795.7/9855.7 kHz on June 16
0500-0655 on 13765.7*EMR 500 kW / 210 deg to CEAf Hau/Swa, instead of 13765
0830-0955 on 11795.7 EMR 500 kW / 105 deg to WeAs Persian, instead of 11795
1000-1025 on  9855.7 EMR 500 kW / 032 deg to CeAs Tatar, instead of 9855.0:
*with ID on all 36 language services of Voice of Turkey on SW and satellite
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/voice-of-turkey-on-odd-freqs_16.html

TURKEY&GERMANY   Strong co-ch between VOTurkey & Missionswerk Friedensstimme, June 16
1200-1255 on 13710 EMR 500 kW / 095 deg to SoAs Urdu Voice of Turkey, over very weak
1200-1230 on 13710 NAU 250 kW / 060 deg to FERu Russ Sat, Missionswerk Friedensstimme
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/strong-co-ch-between-voturkey.html

U.K.(non)   Trans World Radio Africa via BaBcoCk Grigoriopol on June 15
1815-1845 on  9940 KCH 300 kW / 157 deg to EaAf Tigrinya Fri, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/trans-world-radio-africa-via-babcock.html

--

73! Ivo Ivanov
More information on the shortwave listening hobby,
please visit to http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com

QTH-1: Patreshko, Bulgaria
Receiver: Afedri SDR
Software: SDR-Console v2.3(using remote connection)
Antennas: various Inverted V and beverage antennas.

QTH-2: Sofia OK2, Bulgaria
Receiver: Sony ICF-2001D
Antenna: 30 m. long wire

Glenn Hauser logs June 15-16, 2018

** BRAZIL. 11780, June 15 at 1939, S2-S3 yelling in Brazuguese, so RNA is on earlier than usual *2100v. Maybe a silly ballgame from Russia? No problem, no signal from 11775 adjacent Anguilla (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CHINA. 9180, June 15 at 1227, CNR1 song, and 2 seconds ahead of // 11500.. Aoki/NDXC shows both as *jammed Sound of Hope, Taiwan frequencies: 11499.933 and 9180.018 exactly. I can tell there is a second carrier on 9180 making a slight beat (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** FRANCE. 11730, June 15 at 0540, NHK French via Issoudun is clear, no buzz! At S5-S9, just with some ACI from much stronger 11725 RNZI. Perhaps TDF saw my scathing comments in previous June 13 log? Or just a fluke? Time will tell (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** OKLAHOMA. RF 17, June 15 at 1430 UT, K17JN-D, 3ABN satellator, Enid, is off the air again.

RF 23, June 15 at 1430 UT, KSBI ``52`` OKC, is still low-powered not breaking into decoding via my antennas, ``bad`` signal bar (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** OKLAHOMA. 88.3, K202BY, Family Radio satellator in Enid is still left-channel only in semi-stereo, June 15 at 2305 UT check.

94.3, KLGB-LP, Enid, however, has resumed full stereo for its gospel rock music (Glenn Hauser, Enid, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** TAIWAN. 11985, June 15 at 1224, pop song in Chinese?, VG S9+20, and not // 11500 et al. CNR1 jamming, so 11985 is really RTI during this hour. Listening closely during a low passage or pause, I can also hear CNR1 underneath (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U A E [and non]. 15640, June 15 at 1929, poor music, but cuts off at 1929.5*. Aoki/NDXC shows 1900-1930 M-F is VOA Tigrinya via UAE. The primary language for Ethiopia, Amharic at 1800-1900 is daily on 15640 but via Woofferton, UK. Also tacked on before that on weekdays at 1730-1800 is Oromo, also Woofferton. Not much activity on band, but RRI Spanish continues weakly on 15670 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 7570, June 15 at 0129, surprised to find this WRMIBS frequency off, but tuning back across at 0130, it`s back on. No telling how long it had been off. Meanwhile TOMBS on 7730 continued unabated (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A [and non]. 5950, June 15 at 0549, WRMI is S9+10 of dead air. It seems this is happening more and more; computer automation uncoperative?

Also, how is Voice of Tigray Revolution, Ethiopia, doing on 5950 vs WRMI from 0255? The only other nighttime competitor per Aoki/NDXC is Iran in Tajik at 0050-0220. But it also attempts to show every single program on WRMI 5950, including the long-deleted World of Radio Wednesdays at 1415! That was the winter timing when it was on 9955 and consequently duplicated on 9455 before that was replaced by 5950 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. (7490), UT Sat June 16 from 0000, I monitor the first semihour of `Allan Weiner Worldwide`, on webcast. Notes from his monolog: quadri-casting again tonight, 7490, 9330, 5130 and experimentally on 3265. 3265 is on aux transmitter as main one is down while the plenum is being redesigned. Very old fibreglass in the plenum becomes explosive, as they learned when previous transmitters burned up. Replacement transmitter is in place but not ready for use yet. 3265 is #5 transmitter.

The super-station 500 kW transmitter: looks like it will be a year from now before it is on air; due to various delays by vendors, etc., and cost overruns. (Despite detailed 24/7 language schedule on 9330 already publicized effective S-18 in September.) It`s designated #6 transmitter, for World`s Last Chance ministry; much like The Overcomer. #6 will be ``pretty much exclusive`` for them but also some time for other WBCQ programs. 250 WLC programs are already in the can, good stuff, hi-quality bible teaching in multiple languages. 

Allan emphasizes that he wants the 500 kW to be available to the US government in case of national emergency. As Dr Becker says, ``no guerrilla engineering`` on this one; everything is being done professionally, by the book. There are other 500 kW SW in USA, but at reduced power, and to fixed antennas. This will be the only rotatable antenna in USA, capable of aiming anywhere in the world. W.L.C. is paying for it, but will be owned and licensed to Allan.

WBCQ is one of the most X-rated broadcast stations in the world, e.g. Johnny Lightning, but AW likes it that way in service of Free Speech.

Asks someone off mike what the 9 pm (0100 UT) special on 5130 is? Haiko(??) Music from Germany. Must be sure to switch programming on that frequency when the time comes.

FM translator of the AM 780 will be on 98.3 with 200 watts, on 400 foot tower.

At 0030 he starts praising Trump and Jesus, so on to other things here; recheck webcast at 0118, he`s still going, advocating legal pot, but finished before 0130 when Blalock is Blasting.

Now to John H Carver, Jr., for his version:

``Show started on time this evening. Listening on 7490. Again they're broadcasting on 7490, 5130, 9330 and 3265. 5130 will be leaving AWWW at 9:00 for a new European music program. 3265 is on its backup transmitter this evening as there are still some problems with the plenum on the original transmitter. They've been doing general work this week on the other transmitters. Replacing tubes, tightening bolts etc. The WRUL transmitter from WRMI is in place in the transmitter [space] but still needs a total rebuild and Allan and Tim will be working on that as time permits.

Allan mentioned that there may be room on the super station for other WBCQ programs but not completely sure about that. He stated again that the government could have access to the super station in case of natural disaster or national security.

Allan, Angela and Robert in the studio this evening. Robert is there for the changeover of 5130 at nine. Some talk of wanting to get President Trump up to the station for the dedication of the super station but Allan admitted that it was very unlikely. Also some comments about new programmers calling to inquire about rates and such including a man that wants to do a business oriented program.

Then Allan stated he would have control over what was broadcast over the new super station and that the flat earthers would be paying a fee to broadcast over WBCQ. Strange statement out of left field. [I don`t think AW himself refers to his benefactors as flat-earthers  gh]

Talk again about AM and FM radio continuing the discussion from last week and this theme would pop up throughout the rest of the show. Also talk about a four hour visit by two old radio engineers this week and how Allan gave them the tour of the facilities, both old and new.

Allan also stated that if the electric bill didn't stop increasing he might be forced to shut some transmitters off. Confusing based upon his earlier statement about the flat earthers paying a fee to broadcast. This writer was under the impression that the new client would be paying the power bill for the super station. Rapidly changing gears, the talk turned to all the gardens that Angela had been installing around the station, mostly flower gardens.

Reading of emails at 0057. Also some highlights from the Free Radio Weekly. Dave from Indiana on the phone at 0102 talking about the drug problem and vets not being able to get the pain killers they needed because of this which prompted Allan to restate his position of legalizing all drugs. Another phone call at 0110 from a man in the drug business continuing the discussion of this problem.

After the closing prayer show was off the air at 0123. Almost like the old days of AWWW. John Mid-North Indiana`` (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 7505V, June 15 at 0130, WRNO still not with Rick Wiles, but wrapup of `A Time to Dream` gospel huxter. 0131 long dead air with some hum until 0134 starts another g.h., Pastor Ray, citing Joshua VI: 12-14 (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 0354 UT June 16

Media & Tech - 16/06/2018

Media & Tech L'Approfondimento - 16/06/2018

Agenda DX 16/06/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasile 1080 Khz (1950)
Radio Grigotà, Bolivia 4830 Khz (1956)
Radio Progreso, Porto Velho, Brasile 4945 Khz (1983)
Radio Atlantida, Perù 4790 Khz (1957)
Radio Mara, Venezuela 900 Khz (1930)

venerdì 15 giugno 2018

SWLDXBulgaria News, June 15

ESWATINI   Very good signal of Trans World Radio Africa, June 15
1557-1627 on 15105 MAN 100 kW / 013 deg to SoAf Kirundi Mon-Fri
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/very-good-signal-of-trans-world-radio_15.html

GERMANY(non)   Fair signal of The Voice of Scotland via Channel 292, June 14
from 2200 on  6070 ROB 025 kW / non-dir to CeEu English, & off air at 2202UT
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/fair-signal-of-voice-of-scotland-via.html

GERMANY(non)   Reception of Bible Voice Broadcasting via MBR Nauen on June 15
0501-0516 on  9735 NAU 250 kW / 120 deg to N/ME Arabic/English Fri, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-bible-voice-broadcasting_15.html

GERMANY(non)   Reception of Voice of Oromo Liberation via MBR Nauen on June 6
1700-1800 on 15420 NAU 100 kW / 144 deg to EaAf Oromo/Amharic Wed, very good
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-voice-of-oromo-liberation_15.html

GERMANY(non)   Reception of The Voice of Scotland via Channel 292, June 15
2000-2100 on  6070 ROB 025 kW / non-dir to CeEu English, fair/good signal:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-voice-of-scotland-via.html

FRANCE(non)   Reception of BRB Radio Xoriyo Ogaden via MBR Issoudun, June 15
1600-1630 on 17770 ISS 500 kW / 130 deg to EaAf Somali Mon/Fri, good signal:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-brb-radio-xoriyo-ogaden_15.html

NUMBERS STATION   S06s Russian Lady in "the heart" of 31mb on June 15
0940-0946 on  9610 unknown secret tx site to Eu Russian USB/AM, fair:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-s06s-russian-lady-in-heart.html

NUMBERS STATION    E11 Oblique in "the heart" of 31mb on June 15:
1910-1913 on  9610 unknown secret tx site to Eu English USB, fair
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-e11-oblique-in-heart-of_15.html

PALAU(non)   Reception of BRB Radio Que Me via WHRI T8WH Angel 3, June 15
1200-1230 on  9930 HBN 100 kW / 318 deg to EaAs Vietnamese Fri, weak/fair
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-brb-radio-que-me-via-whri_15.html

PHILIPPINES   Good signal of Radio Veritas Asia, June 15
1430-1457 on  9610 PUG 250 kW / 300 deg to SoAs Urdu and
1500-1557 on 11675 PUG 250 kW / 300 deg to N/ME Filipino
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/good-signal-of-radio-veritas-asia-june.html

PHILIPPINES    Good signal of FEBC Radio in Chinese in 31mb on June 15:
1000-1400 on  9275 BOC 100 kW / 345 deg to EaAs Chinese, not // on 9400
1000-1400 on  9400 IBA 100 kW / 330 deg to EaAs Chinese, not // on 9275
1400-1600 on  9275 BOC 100 kW / 345 deg to EaAs Chinese, not // on 9345
1400-1600 on  9345 IBA 100 kW / 330 deg to EaAs Chinese, not // on 9275
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/good-signal-of-febc-radio-in-chinese-in.html

PHILIPPINES   Reception of Radio Pilipinas PBS via Tinang on June 15:
1730-1930 on  9910 PHT 250 kW / 283 deg to N&ME Filipino, good signal
1730-1930 on 12120 PHT 250 kW / 283 deg to N&ME Filipino, fair signal
1730-1930 on 15190 PHT 250 kW / 283 deg to N&ME Filipino, weak signal
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-radio-pilipinas-pbs-via.html

SAUDI ARABIA   Reception of Radio Saudi International in 13mb, June 15
0900-1000 on 21670 RIY 500 kW / 100 deg to SEAs Indonesian, very good:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-radio-saudi-international.html

TAJIKISTAN(non)   Frequency change of Voice of Tibet on June 15:
1300-1330 NF 11626 DB  100 kW / 095 deg to EaAs Chinese, ex 11628
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/frequency-change-of-voice-of-tibet-via.html

TAJIKISTAN(non)   Adventist World Radio KSDA via Dushanbe, June 15
till 1330 on 11825 BOC 100 kW / 305 deg to CeAs Tibetan FEBA Radio
1330-1400 on 11825 DB  100 kW / 118 deg to SEAs Thai, good signal:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/reception-of-adventist-world-radio-ksda.html

U.K.(non)   Radio Ranginkaman/Radio Rainbow via BaBcoCk Tashkent on June 15
1600-1630 on  7580 TAC 100 kW / 236 deg to WeAs Farsi Mon/Fri, weak to fair
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/radio-ranginkamanradio-rainbow-via_15.html

USA   Very good signal of World Harvest Radio Int. WHRI Angel 2 in French on June 15
0500-0515 on  9825 HRI 250 kW / 047 deg to WeEu French Fri La Voix Des Eaux Vivantes
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-harvest-radio-int-whri-angel-2-in_15.html

USA   Fair/good signal of WRNO Radio in Chinese, June 15
from 0503 on  7505 RNO 050 kW / 020 deg to ENAm Chinese:
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/fairgood-signal-of-wrno-radio-in.html

USA(non)   VOA South Sudan in Focus via Meyerton/Dhabayya/Lampertheim, June 15
1630-1700 on 11910 MEY 100 kW / 015 deg to EaAf English Mon-Fri, good signal
1630-1700 on 13750 DHA 250 kW / 255 deg to EaAf English Mon-Fri, good signal
1630-1700 on 15180 LAM 100 kW / 132 deg to EaAf English Mon-Fri, very strong
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/south-sudan-in-focus-via.html

ZAMBIA(non)   Weak/fair signal of KVOH Voice of Hope Africa, June 15
from 0533 on 11680 LUV 100 kW / 315 deg to WeAf English Mon-Fri tx#2
http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com/2018/06/weakfair-signal-of-kvoh-voice-of-hope.html

--

73! Ivo Ivanov
More information on the shortwave listening hobby,
please visit to http://swldxbulgaria.blogspot.com

QTH-1: Patreshko, Bulgaria
Receiver: Afedri SDR
Software: SDR-Console v2.3(using remote connection)
Antennas: various Inverted V and beverage antennas.

QTH-2: Sofia OK2, Bulgaria
Receiver: Sony ICF-2001D
Antenna: 30 m. long wire

Propagation News 17 June 2018

It was more of the same last week with virtually zero sunspots, but some sporadic E to keep us amused on HF. We say virtually zero sunspots as a group had just appeared over the suns limb, pushing the sunspot number to 16 as the time of writing. This represents 10 for the single group and six for the number of visible spots in that group.

On Thursday afternoon the solar flux index was just 74 as the sunspots have not yet moved into an earth-facing position to have any real effect. NOAA doesnt think they will not do too much for HF propagation, estimating the maximum solar flux index as 75 on Thursday, the 21st. The good news is geomagnetic conditions are predicted to remain fairly settled this week with a maximum K-index of two.

As we head towards the summer solstice the upper HF bands are remaining open later, which is the norm. The Chilton ionosonde suggests that 20 metres may be remaining open on 3,000km paths until around 11pm. But with the current low solar flux you may find 30 metres more reliable after dark on distant paths.

Meanwhile, sporadic E continues to impress, but may decline slightly as we head into July. So make the most of it. For those not familiar with sporadic E, it can generate very strong, localised, but often fleeting openings on HF up to 2,200km on all bands up to 10 metres. Also look out for rarer multi-hop sporadic E that can take your signals even further afield, as well discuss in the VHF section.

Dont miss the sporadic E openings, as it may be some time before we see reliable 10m band propagation again once the season has ended.

VHF and up:

It looks as though there will be plenty of opportunity to talk about tropospheric openings during the next week, but northern Britain will have to cope with occasional periods of low pressure and stronger winds. On the positive side this may offer some rain scatter on the microwave bands. It is worth checking for this over this first weekend, even in the south where we may have some heavy showers around.

Back to the tropo now, and as a new ridge of high pressure builds in across southern Britain during next week, it will be a good option for longer VHF/UHF paths across Biscay and across the southern North Sea.

Stations in the far south-west should be alert for those rare but exciting openings down to EA8 and D4 if this tropo couples in to the Azores duct system.

Sporadic E is still in full season, and last week saw many QSOs from the UK into the Caribbean on six metres on both digital and CW. With the Atlantic jet stream over the country and a strong upper ridge over the near continent, there are good reasons to hope for some sporadic E into Europe and at times across the Atlantic. It may well be the turn for paths to Scandinavia as the jet stream over the UK moves over the Norwegian mountains by mid-week. If time is limited, check on 10m and 6m late morning and early evening.

June is one of the best periods of the year for meteor activity, so keep looking for meteor scatter in between the sporadic E openings.


The moons declination goes negative on Thursday, and the Moon is heading away from us again, but EME conditions will continue to be good throughout the week.

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-165

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my not for profit daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

Its the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all disciplines. In terrestrial weather
forecasting I
have 45 years of experience and in solar, space and geomagnetic weather
forecasting 34 years.

Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA
1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm


Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email. https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without
supporting images.

It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and 25 Forecast- Short and to the point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earths climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isnt.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#165 Issued Friday Jun 15, 2018 at 1400 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.4 72.4 71.9

There had been 3 days in a row with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index number
(DSFI) greater than 70.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 16.

There had been 3 days in a row with a daily sunspot number (DSSN) greater
than 0.

In 2018 there had been 87 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

Newly risen sunspot group #12713 was located near N05E43 with a slightly
complex beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small in size B
class solar flare and an isolated small in size C class solar flare.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of  2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 351 &
308 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 15, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 16, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition trend Jun 17, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in
the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower
than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere
is higher and the layer less concentrated.

Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that
the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via
short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also
when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
propagation (TEP).

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast g-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +5 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 5 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S4-5 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S2-4 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than
in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher
than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower
in height and more concentrated.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980s but Im sorry to say that it cant be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and  wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted  1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.