mercoledì 17 ottobre 2018

Agenda DX 17/10/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio Clube Pernambuco, Brasile 11865 Khz (1923)
Radio Tay, Dundee, Gran Bretagna 1584 Khz (1980)

martedì 16 ottobre 2018

Media & Tech - 16/10/2018

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-289

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm


Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#289 Issued Tuesday October 16, 2018 at 1415 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.4 70.0    70.7

There had been 5 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) at 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11.

There had been 4 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of greater than 0.

In 2018 there had been 165 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12724 located near S07E14 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12725 located near S11E31 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

On Tuesday October 16, 2018 sunspot group #12724 and #12725 had weakened
into plages.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an
unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between 15 & 6.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between -9 & +11.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 659 &
551 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 16, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 17, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 18, 2018- steady then
minor deterioration.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Glenn Hauser logs October 14-15-16, 2018

** CANADA. 2598-USB, Oct 15 at 0449, synthyl with marine weather in English, S4-S5 vs storm crashes up to S9+10.

2749-USB, Oct 15 at 0450, same type of broadcast, weaker S3. Checking the Canadian Coast Guard website schedule, http://www.ccg-gcc.gc.ca/Marine-Communications/RAMN-2018/Part2#21 we find that these both originate with VCF, altho at many other times there are separate stations, partly from NS or NL; so these may well have been in //, not checked:

``Table 2-8 - Les Escoumins MCTS/VCF - Broadcasts [starting at:] 04:37
Natashquan  2598J3E  
La Vernière 2749J3E Radiotelephony
Technical marine synopsis and forecasts for marine areas 215 to 221 and 301 to 302.
Wave height forecasts for marine areas 215, 217, 219, 220, 221, 301 and 302..Notices to Fish Harvesters (when available)``

These are the last broadcasts of the night until resuming at 0847 on both. But where are these places, exactly, in Québec? Elsewhere in sked, concerning VHF, coördinates are shown:

La Vernière
 47°21'28"N
061°55'30"W   

is in the Magdalen Islands.

Natashquan
 50°09'06"N
061°47'42"W

is on the north shore of St Lawrence in remote SE Quebec, on hwy 138; far from Les Escoumins HQ for VCF, also on hwy 138 much further west between Rimouski and Saguenay.

Above website shows many other DX possibilities on these two MF channels, on a rotating time schedule; and several other 2 MHz banders including 2582 and 2514 where I`ve yet to hear anything. Also higher marine bands from some northern stations (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA. 13630 & 13770 approx., Oct 15 at 1348, FM spurs out of RHC 13700-AM, barely detectable with tell-tale F# tone but no readable modulation; even less so around 13773, 13763, 13637, 13623, 13555, so the main peaks are plus and minus 70 kHz, but now also elsewhere in between. Need to tighten them up! Something`s always wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1952, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NIGERIA [non]. 11580, Oct 14 at 2126, R. Nigeria, Kaduna, via WRMI, in Hausa at S9, still going for this transmission. I wonder if there is any English? (Glenn Hauser, OK, WORLD OF RADIO 1952, DX LISTENING DIGEST) 

** U S A [and non]. WORLD OF RADIO 1951 monitoring: Manuel Méndez, Lugo, Spain, reports: 6190, Hamburger LokalRadio, Göhren, *0603-0708, 13-10, after having been inactive last Saturday[s], today on air, program “Media Network Plus”, at 0634 Glenn Hauser’s program “World of Radio” nº 1951, at 0701 German progam. 15321.

7265, Hamburger LokalRadio, Göhren, 0950-1100, 14-10, music, Dutch, comments, ID “Hamburger LokalRadio”, at 1000 English, ID program “Media Network Plus” and “World of Radio” Weak signal. 15311. Hamburger LokalRadio has changed its 9485 kHz Sunday frequency for its English program and now this program is on air on 7265 kHz. Logs in Friol, Tecsun S-8800, cable antenna, 8 meters``

WOR 1951 confirmed Sunday October 14 at 2130 on WRMI 7780 at S4-S6 AND on WRMI 9955 at S9+10 but with pulse jamming; tnx a lot, Arnie! The two frequencies are about one word apart, so separate playouts rather than exactly // from same feed; just before at 2127 they were different, 9955 with World Music and 7780 with `Wavescan`.

Also confirmed UT Monday Oct 15 after 0300 on Area 51 webcast, and via WBCQ 5129.84, good S9 ending at 0330:29 so started circa 0301:40. The 0330 UT Mon Oct 15 on WRMI 9955 is a JBA carrier vs pulse jamming, but audible on webcast.

WORLD OF RADIO 1952 contents: Alaska and non, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bougainville, Brasil, Canada, Chile, China, Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Germany non, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mali, México, Nepal, Nigeria non, Papua New Guinea, Perú, Sa`udi Arabia, Sikkim, Taiwan, UK, USA, unidentified; propagation outlook

WOR 1952 completed and uploaded by 2351 UT October 15, ready for first airings on WRMI: confirmed UT Tuesday October 16 at 0030 on 7730, VG S9+20/30. Also new immediate repeat confirmed UT Tue Oct 16 at 0100 on 9955, very poor S7 in pulse jamming; by 0114 has faded to JBA carrier leaving nothing but jamming. Tnx a lot, Arnie! I sure hope 9955 has held up into its South American target area. Next:

2030 UT Tuesday   WRMI   7780 to NE
1030 UT Wednesday WRMI   5950 to WNW
2100 UT Wednesday WRMI   9955 to SSE
2100 UT Wednesday WBCQ   7490v to WSW
0629 UT Saturday  HLR    6190-CUSB Germany to WSW
1231 UT Saturday  WINB   9265V via Unique Radio to WSW
1431 UT Saturday  HLR    9485-CUSB Germany to WSW [ex-6190]
1930vUT Saturday  WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional
0300vUT Sunday    WA0RCR 1860-AM non-direxional [nominal 0315-]
1030 UT Sunday    HLR    7265-CUSB Germany to WSW
2130 UT Sunday    WRMI   7780 to NE, 9955 to SSE
0300vUT Monday    WBCQ   5130v Area 51 to WSW
0330 UT Monday    WRMI   9955 to SSE

Full schedule including AM, FM, webcasts, satellite:
http://www.worldofradio.com/radioskd.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. Trans-Atlantic JBA MW carrier search, Oct 15 from 0500: 531, 549, 558, 612, 621, 639, 684, 693, 711, 729, 747, 774, 837, 855, 882, 909, 936, 999(2), 1044, 1053, 1062, 1098, 1125(2), 1152, 1179, 1215, 1305 --- and none higher and/or when I dozed off? (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 2960, Oct 15 at 0452, S2 bit of broadcast talking, presumably a 2 x 1480 harmonic, and where WERM, Mobile AL, has been heard before.

But I also have JBA carriers on many nearby frequencies: 2940, 2980, 3020, 3040, 3050, 3070, 3180, 3200. 2940 had HJNT, Cali, Colombia, last April. All but 3070 could also be second harmonix. Some or all of them could also be R75 receiver-produced; but I am only hearing such in this area, not lower on 2 MHz band. If & when we get extremely quiet no-storm winter conditions, maybe something else can be identified (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report dispatched at 0333 UT October 16

Agenda DX 16/10/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Caracol, Colombia 5075 Khz (1947)
WHOT, Ohio, 1390 Khz (1955)
WAKR, Ohio 1590 Khz (1941)
TWR Montecarlo 1467 Khz (1960)
West Sound, Gran Bretagna 1035 Khz (1981)
Capital Gold London, Gran Bretagna 1548 Khz (1973)

lunedì 15 ottobre 2018

Media & Tech - 15/10/2018

Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 October 2018

Solar activity was very low this period. Regions 2724 (S08, L=126,
class/area, Hrx/20 on 12 Oct) and 2725 (S11, L=113, class/area,
Axx/10 on 14 Oct) were the only numbered sunspots on the visible
disk but were quiet and stable throughout the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 08-13 Oct then decreased to moderate levels on 14
Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 10 and 13 Oct, active conditions on 08-09 Oct, unsettled
levels on 11 Oct, and quiet conditions on 12 and 14 Oct due to CH
HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 October - 10 November 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 15-25 Oct and 04-09 Nov with
moderate flux levels expected thoughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Oct and 03-04 Nov with active levels
expected on 18 Oct and 05-06 Nov due to the influence of multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-10-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Oct 15      72          10          3
2018 Oct 16      72           5          2
2018 Oct 17      72           5          2
2018 Oct 18      72          12          4
2018 Oct 19      72          18          5
2018 Oct 20      72          10          3
2018 Oct 21      72           5          3
2018 Oct 22      70          10          3
2018 Oct 23      70           8          3
2018 Oct 24      70           5          2
2018 Oct 25      69           5          2
2018 Oct 26      69          10          3
2018 Oct 27      69           5          2
2018 Oct 28      69           5          2
2018 Oct 29      69           5          2
2018 Oct 30      69           5          2
2018 Oct 31      69           5          2
2018 Nov 01      69           5          2
2018 Nov 02      69           5          2
2018 Nov 03      69          22          5
2018 Nov 04      69          20          5
2018 Nov 05      70          15          4
2018 Nov 06      70          15          4
2018 Nov 07      72           8          3
2018 Nov 08      72           5          2
2018 Nov 09      72          12          3
2018 Nov 10      72           8          3
(SWPC via DXLD)

Test Babcock in corso

Una delle consuete trasmissioni test provenienti dal trasmettitore Babcock di Woofferton è al momento in onda sugli 11810 khz. Come di consueto l'indirizzo email annunciato per inviare rapporti d'ascolto è Transmissiontest@gmail.com

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-288

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm


Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#288 Issued Monday October 15, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 72.9 71.5 71.1

There had been 4 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) at 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 22.

There had been 3 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of greater than 0.

In 2018 there had been 165 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12724 located near S07E27 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12725 located near S10E46 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between 6 & 4.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between -9 & +11.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between
587 & 454 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 15, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 16, 2018- improving.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 17, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Agenda DX 15/10/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Radio Santa Rosa 1500, Perù 6045 Khz (1958)
Radio Ondas de Luz, Nicaragua 820 Khz (1958)
Classic Gold, Gran Bretagna 792 Khz (1981)
Radio Citadelle, Haiti 1370 Khz (1950)
Azad Kashmir Radio , Pakistan 4790 Khz (1948)
WUNO, Puerto Rico 1320 Khz (1949)
WYFR, Usa (1927)

domenica 14 ottobre 2018

Media & Tech - 14/10/2018

Glenn Hauser logs October 12-13-14, 2018

** CUBA. 13660, Oct 13 at 1332, RHC is S7 here, sufficient on leapfrog mixing product of 13740 over 13700 another 40 kHz lower; but no reverse audible on 13780. 13740 is S9+20, 13700 is S9+30 and no FM spurfield from it today. Something`s always wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA. 6100, Sunday Oct 14 at 0701, RHC opening Esperanto, while all the other frequencies are off. Unlike a week ago, when Esp`o showed up at 0600 on a bunch of them. Something`s not wrong at RHC (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** CUBA [non]. 13820, Oct 14 at 1415, lite pulse jamming against no Radio Martí ---- lest we forget, RM uses this in the B-seasons, instead of 13605 in the A-seasons; why? HFCC B-18 now available confirms 13820 GB at 14-20, nothing on 13605 (and new 11860 remains M-F at 14-22) (Glenn Hauser, OK DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** NIGERIA [non]. More on Radio Nigeria, Kaduna, new relay via WRMI 11580. Further info from Jeff White, a bit too late for my last report:

On Friday, October 12, 2018, Glenn Hauser wrote:
``Tnx. So what will be the regular schedule? Modulation was really cutting off and on a lot today. Glenn``

Jeff: ``0500-0900, 1100-1500, 2000-2300. But it may change to just 2000-2300 in the near future. Sent from AOL Mobile Mail``

And I see these have already been entered on the WRMI skedgrid, XMTR 10 at 87 degrees, as System L in brown, but no further details.

This is the FRCN regional station, in Kaduna, formerly active on 6090. Federal government, *not* clandestine this time.

Paul Walker received another reply from Jeff: ``That's us with Radio Nigeria Kaduna in the Hausa language, on daily now at 0500-0900, 1100-1500 and 2000-2300 UTC on 11580, till further notice. It's beamed to West Africa``

My further monitoring of 11580: at 2022 Oct 12 VP S6-S8; better S9+10 with music at 2048. At 0611 Oct 13, JBA carrier, OSOB except for slightly stronger Aparecida, Brasil on 11857-. Sure hope the night MUF is holding up better eastward from Okee. At 1413, S9+10 in Hausa talk. Oct 14 at 0630, JBA carrier again. 

11580, Oct 14 at 1447, non-African music on good signal, 1449 canned Biermann WRMI ID as in the Oldies stream, and indeed followed by an obviously Oldies tune. (9395 currently with TOMBS); so this transmission is already gone from Nigeria, but still on the air (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A [and non]. WORLD OF RADIO 1951 monitoring: confirmed Saturday October 13 at 1255 the 1231 on Unique Radio via WINB, 9265, S9+10. 

Next WOR broadcast, at 1431 via Hamburger Lokalradio, has been missing from 6190-CUSB the past three weeks with no info from station about the status. But Alan Gale, England, found a new schedule effective today on their website, with 9485-CUSB replacing 6190 for this transmission, WOR at the same times as before:
http://hamburger-lokalradio.net/?page_id=2229

Samstag
06.00 – 11.00 UTC – 6190 kHz (49mB)
11.00 – 15.00 UTC – 9485 kHz (31mB)
Sonntag
09.00 – 12.00 UTC – 7265 kHz (41mB)

So 9485-CUSB, at 1430 via UTwente, gets a JBA carrier, with huge splash, especially during music, from 9490 CRI Bengali, 150 kW, due west from Kunming. HLR might have a chance if it were on LSB instead of USB. Which HLR frequency is only 150 watts? As shown on website, the other two 1 kW. 9485 means an even greater skip distance at 1431, less likely reception as close as UTwente. But further in England, Alan reports:

``Hi Glenn, HLR on 9485 at fair strength. I've been listening to HLR since it came on 9485 at 1100 UT, not booming in, but fair and listenable, though at around 1440 there is some QSB starting to build up during the World of Radio slot. Nice to listen to it without theusual PBS carrier, and to be able to use AM rather than CUSB. No splatter noted here on either sideband, thankfully. Alan``

From Northern Ireland, Jordan Heyburn reports: ``World of Radio - Glenn Hauser: 9485 kHz CUSB at 1435 UT good signal. Perseus SDR - Beverage (Facing South) - Remote QTH Finland``.

WOR 1951 confirmed UT Sunday October 14 at 0328 on WA0RCR, 1860-AM, Missouri, good signal about 11 minutes into show so started circa 0317. 

Next HLR airing should be Sunday 1030, HLR on new 7265-CUSB, ex-9485. Manuel Méndez, Lugo, Spain, confirms during the previous program: ``7265-CUSB. Now on air 1005-1013, 14-10, with poor signal, program "Media Network Plus"``  Next:
2130 UT Sunday    WRMI   7780 to NE, 9955 to SSE
0300vUT Monday    WBCQ   5130v Area 51 to WSW
0330 UT Monday    WRMI   9955 to SSE

#1952 should be ready for first airing UT Tue 0030 on 7730 WRMI.

Full schedule including AM, FM, webcasts, satellite:
http://www.worldofradio.com/radioskd.html
(Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. 9265, Saturday Oct 13 at 1301, right after WOR finished on Unique Radio via WINB, Tim Gaynor`s own `Sounds of Your Life` show starting with ``Happiness`` song, nice (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

** U S A. (7490v), Oct 13 from 0004, `Al Weiner Worldwide` on WBCQ is instead inhabited by CE Tom Barna, with Robert aside, since AW and Angela are away at some hamfest. Takes a lot of phone calls, bits of music, and mainly talks about Superstation progress. About 65 to 75% complete now. Need to hook up antennas and transmission line. 500 kW Continental transmitter expected to be delivered about November 5. Tom will be working long hours 6 days a week for two months, installing it along with TimTron and the rep from Continental. Tom has already moved into the apartment in the new octagon building (seen on website) which will house master control and the transmitter. Building has copper faraday cage screening built in already. Hope that most of the RF out of antenna will be directed away from the MCR. 

Depending on whether the Ampegon antenna is ready, maybe start testing (presumably meaning on the air), early December. To be installed, a kilofoot of 9-inch transmission line. Tom says working on a 500 kW unit will be new for him, only 50 kW previously. Maybe ready to go on air in five months (which would be mid-March, already). One caller asks if they have icing problems there in northern Maine --- not much, he says; it`s either too cold or too hot for ice to build up. No e-mail reading, since he can`t get into AW`s inbox (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

UNIDENTIFIED. 6135-USB, Oct 13 at 0626, INTRUDER 2-way in Spanish repeating digits 5-8-6-5, presumably a QSY notice. So I retune to 5865 at 0627 and do hear weaker JBA 2-way in Spanish (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)

This report despatched at 1637 UT October 14

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-287

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm


Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#287 Issued Sunday October 14, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 73.2 72.4 72.1

There had been 3 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) at 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 22.

There had been 2 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
(SSN) of greater than 0.

In 2018 there had been 165 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12724 located near S08E41 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 12725 located near S11E60 with a
simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B class
solar flare.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an
active to quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 1 0 1 4 4 4.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between 27 & 2.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between -26 & +11.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 522 &
326 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 14, 2018- minor
deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 15, 2018- steady then
improvement.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 16, 2018- improvement.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Log Roberto Pavanello

729 09/10 17.45 R.N.E. R1 - Alicante SS NX reg. Comun. Valenciana suff.
774 10/10 17.45 R.N.E. R.1 - Valencia SS NX reg. Com. Valenciana buono
1035 13/10 03.30 R. Eli - Tartu Russo predica buono
1143 08/10 22.01 COPE - Jaen SS ID e pubblicità locale buono
1269 10/10 17.00 R. Asia Network - Abu Dhabi Malayalam NX suff.
1305 11/10 17.45 R.N.E. R.5 - Bilbao SS NX reg. Pais Vasco buono
1584 09/10 16.20 RDE - Trieste IT NX buono
1584 10/10 22.32 R. Gandia - SS ID e pubblicità locale buono
1602 09/10 16.25 R. 3 Network - Poggibonsi IT talk suff.
1615 13/10 23.00 R. Turftrekker - Dutch MX buono
1602 11/10 22.31 R. Segovia - SS ID e pubblicità locale buono
1625 08/10 21.10 R. Pandora - Dutch ID e MX buono
1638 11/10 22.10 R. Bluebird - Dutch ID e MX suff.
1643 13/10 22.55 R. Montecarlo - Dutch ID e MX suff.
1644 09/10 22.20 R. Vroljike Mijnwerker - Dutch ID e MX buono
1652 13/10 22.50 R. Moby Dick - Dutch MX buono
6135 13/10 03.40 R. Aparecida - PP MX buono
6205 07/10 17.30 Laser Hot Hits - EE ID e MX buono
6230 08/10 21.05 Coast FM - EE ID e MX buono
6270 09/10 16.15 R. Batavia - EE ID e MX buono
9650 08/10 20.10 R. Guinee’ - Conakry FF NX buono
9665 13/10 22.45 Voz Missionaria - Camboriu PP MX buono

Roberto Pavanello
Vercelli / Italia

Stations heard in Friol

ANGOLA, 4949.75, Radio Nacional de Angola, Mulenvos, 1910-2010, 13-10, Portuguese, comments, songs. 15321.

ALGERIA, 1550, Radio Nacional de la República Árabe Saharaui, Rabuni, 1829-1955, 13-10, Arabic songs, Arabic comments, female, more Arabic songs, id. “... Arabia Saharuia..”. 22322.

ARMENIA, 4810, Armenian Public Radio, Gavar/Yerevan, 1823-1835, 13-10, Arabic, comments. 25422.

BAHREIN, 9745, Radio Bahrein, Abu Hayan, 1530-1550, 13-10, Arabic songs. 24322.

BOLIVIA
3310, Radio Mosoj Chaski, Cotapachi, 0018-0027, 14-10, Bolivian songs, Quechua, comments. 15321.

5952.4, Radio Pio XII, Siglo XX, 0027-0036, 14-10, Brazilian songs, Spanish, comments. Very weak. 14321.

BRAZIL
4774.8, Radio Congonhas, Congonhas, 0343-0356, 14-10, religious songs, Portuguese. 15311.

4875.2, Radiodifusora Roraima, Boavista, 0340-0358*, 14-10, Brazilian songs, Portuguese, comments, id. “Radiodifusora de Roraima”, anthem and close. 25432.

4885, Radio Clube do Pará, Belém, 0430-0550, 14-10, Brazilian songs, Portuguese, comments, id. “Radio Cube, Clube da Madrugada”. 25432.

4905, Radio Relogio, Sao Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro, 0347-0420, 14-10, religious comments and songs. Very weak. 15311.

6010, Radio Inconfidencia, Belo Horizonte, 0410-0435, 14-10, Brazilian songs. 14321.

9515, Radio Marumby, Curitiba, 2024-2037, 13-10, religious comments and songs, Portuguese. 25322.

9565, Super Radio Deus e Amor, Curitiba, 0443-0455, 14-10, Portuguese, religious comments, “A Voz da Libertaçao”. 35433.

9664.8, Voz Missionaria, Camboriú, 0446-0458, 14-10, religious, Portuguese, “O programa Voz Missionaria”, “Levando a você a palavra de Deus”. 44444.

10000, Time Signal Station Observatorio Nacional, Rio de Janeiro, 0825-0833, 14-10, time signals, female voice announcements : “Oservatorio Naciona, 5 horas, 36 minutos, 0 segundos”. 23322.

11780, Radio Nacional da Amazonia, Brasilia, 1958-2009, 13-10, Portuguese, soccer, comments. 23322.

11815, Radio Brasil Central, Goiania, 2010-2020, 13-10, Portuguese, comments. 21321.

11856.9, Radio Aparecida, Aparecida, 0447-0500, 14-10, Portuguese, religious comments and songs, id. “Aparecida”. 35433.

11895, Radio Boa Vontade, Porto Alegre, 2023-2035, 13-10, Portuguese, religious songs. 13321.

15190, Radio Inconfidencia, Belo Horizonte, 1801-2005, 13-10, Brazilian songs, Portuguese, comments, id. “Rede Inconfidencia de Radio, Bello Horizonte, Minas Gerias, Brasil”, Brazilian songs, “Inconfidencia”. 25422. 
Also 0850-0945, 14-10, program “Trem Caipira”, “Estamos apresentando pela Inconfidencia Trem Caipira”, Brazilian songs and comments. 25422.

CANADA, 6070, CFRX, Toronto, 0347-0505, 14-10, English, comments, advertisements, news, at 0400: “This is... breaking news, Canadian, Montreal”, at 0500 more news: “... news, Toronto...”. No interference from Chanel 292 today at this time. 25432.

EQUATORIAL GUINEA, 5005, Radio Nacional de Guinea Ecuatorial, Bata, *0501-0545 , 14-10, Spanish, comments, Afropop and African songs. 25322.

ETHIOPIA
5950, Voice of Tigray Revolution, Addis Ababa, 1635-1833, 13-10, Vernacular comments, East African songs. 25422.

6090, Voice of Amhara State, Addis Ababa, 1735-1749, 13-10, Vernacular, comments. 34433.

GERMANY
3975, Short Wave Radio de. 1927-1935, 13-10, pop songs in English. 25422.

6070, Atlantic 2000 International, Rohrbach, 0800-0815, 13-10, tuning music, id. “You are listengin to Atlantic 2000 International”, id. in French, pop songs, French, comments. 25322.

6070, Super Clan Radio, Rohrbach, 0735-0758, 14-10, pop songs and comments in English. 34433.

6190, Hamburger LokalRadio, Gohren, *0603-0708, 13-10, after been inactive last Saturday, today on air, program “Media Network Plus”, at 0634 Glenn Hauser’s program “World of Radio” nº 1951, at 0701 German progam . 15321.

7265, Hamburger LokalRadio, Gohren, 0950-1100, 14-10, music, Dutch, comments, id. “Hamburger LokalRadio”, at 1000 English, id. Program “Media Network Plus” and “World of Radio” Weak signal. 15311. Hamburger LokalRadio has changed its 9485 kHz Sunday frequency for its English program and now this program is on air on 7265 kHz.

GUATEMALA, 4055, Radio Verdad, Chiquimula, 0435-0447, 14-10, English, religious songs and comments. Very weak, best on LSB. 15221.

GUINEA, 9650, Radio Guinea, Conakry, *0722-0820, 14-10, open with African songs, at 0731 religious catholic program “Le Jour du Seigneur”, French. 33443.

INDIA
4910, AIR, Jaipur, 1729-1733, 13-10, Hindi songs, at 1730 English, news. 15321.

4950, AIR, Kashmir, 1724-1728, 13-10, Vernacular comments. 14311.

5010, AIR, Thiruvananthapuram, 1720-1734, 13-10, Hindi songs, at 1730 English, news. 15321.

5040, AIR, Jeypore, 1723-1728, 13-10, Hindi songs. 15311.

MALI, inactive on both frequencies, no audio and no carrier detected for several days on 5995 at it’s usual time 0600-0800 and on 9635 at 0800-1800.

MEXICO, 6185, Radio Educación, Ciudad de México, 0339-0359, 14-10, classic music. At 0359 eclipsed by Radio Romania on 6180. 25432.
Also at 0457 when closed Romania, songs, lyrics, anthem and closed today exactly at 0500 when usually close 5, 10 or 15 minutes later. 25432.

NIGERIA, 7255, Voice of Nigeria, Ikodoru, *0600-0810, 14-10, id. “Voice of Nigeria”, Hausa, comments, at 0700 program in French, “La Voix du Nigeria”, news and comments, at 0730 program in Fulani, at 0758 English, id. “Voice of Nigeria”, at 0800 news. 34433.

PERU, 4774.9, Radio Tarma, Tarma, 0023-0038, 14-10, Peruvian songs. Very weak. 14321.

SOLOMON ISLANDS, 5020, SIBC, Honiara, 0645-0658, 14-10, carrier and some pop sons in English detected. Extremely weak, barely audible and only on LSB. 14311.

SOMALILAND, 7120, Radio Hargeisa, Hargeisa, out of air, no signal detected at it’s usual time when it’s better heard here, 1730-1900.
SUDAN, 7205, Sudan Radio, Al Aitahab, 1641-1710, 13-10, Arabic comments and songs. 25422. 
Also 0437-0450, 14-10, Arabic songs. 35433.

TANZANIA
6015, Zanzibar Broadcasting Corporation, Dole, 0409-0425, 14-10, Swahili,, comments. 35433.

11735, Zanzibar Broadcasting Corporation, Dole, 1757-1810, 13-10, Swahili, comments, at 1800 time signals, English, “It’s 9 o’clock African time, here the news from Zanzibar Broadcasting Corporation”, news. 24322.

ZAMBIA, 5915, Zambia NBC, Radio 1, 1950-2012, 13-10, Swahili, comments. 23322. 
Also 0407-0417, 14-10, Vernacular comments. 25422.
 
 

Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spain

Logs in Friol
Tecsun S-8800, cable antenna, 8 meters

Ascolti AM Treviso 14 ottobre

6070  14/10 0900  Radio DARC, AUT-Moosbrunn Px Dx D 45544  
11955 14/10 0913  AWR Europe, Nauen Px "Obiettivo DX" It 45534
15160 14/10 0958  KBS World Radio, Kimjae Mx Info ID K 25522
15450 14/10 1000 AWR KSDA Guam, Agat Info ID E Px rel. M 35544
17665 14/10 1004 AWR KSDA Guam, Agat Px rel. M 35543
17850 14/10 1018 Radio Thailand, Udon Thani Mx Px T 35544
17880 14/10 1019 Radio Liberty, THA-Udon Thani   Px   PS 35544 

73 da N. Marabello
QTH Treviso, Italia
RX: SONY ICF SW7600G
Ant.: esterna VHF orizzontale 230 gradi

Studio DX 798 - 14/10/2018

Obiettivo DX 798 - 14/10/18

Radio Bata on air now

EQUATORIAL GUINEA, 5005, Radio Nacional, Bata, on air now, open at 0501, some comments in Spanish, Afropop songs.
 

Manuel Méndez
Lugo, Spaiin

Log in Friol

Agenda DX 14/10/2018

ANNIVERSARIO EMITTENTI
Emisora Lago Argentino, Argentina 730 Khz (1978)
Radio Festival, Cile 1270 Khz (1976)
Radio Wyvern, Gran Bretagna 1332 Khz (1982)
WEMP, Wisconsin 1250 Khz (1935)

sabato 13 ottobre 2018

Media & Tech - 13/10/2018

W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast #2018-286

Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
Forecast.

It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
the planet.

I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

This is created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL,
USA © 1988-2018.

If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
know that at

thomasfgiella@gmail.com

I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
broadening their knowledge in science.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

and in my Twitter account at

https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm

Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
email.
It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
password.

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast

W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
point.

Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

#286 Issued Saturday October 13, 2018 at 1445 UTC

Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

Solar activity was very low.

The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 71.8 71.6 71.8

There had been 2 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
number (SFI) at 70 or higher.

The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 11.

There had been 1 day with an official daily sunspot number (SSN) of greater
than 0.

In 2018 there had been 165 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
of 0.

There had been 1 sunspot group numbered 2724 located near S08E56 with a
relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small
B class solar flare and an isolated small C class solar flare.

There had been 1 newly risen sunspot group numbered 2725 located near S08E51
with a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of releasing a very small B
class solar flare.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at a
quiet geomagnetic condition of 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1.

The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
between 39 & 3.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum Disturbance Storm Time Index (Dst)
ranged between -9 & +11.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 445 &
350 km/s.

Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 13, 2018- steady.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 14, 2018- minor
deterioration.

HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Oct 15, 2018- steady.

Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
at day,

6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
S4-7 at day,

13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
night and S3-4 at day,

21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

We are now in the fall/spring equinox type of HF radio wave propagation
conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly
balanced across the equator during the fall and spring equinox.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS EDUCATIONAL MATERIAL ON SOLAR SPACE,
GEOMAGNETIC WEATHER OBSERVING AND FORECASTING AS WELL AS GOINGS ON IN EARTH’S
IONOSPHERE.

This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
and when necessary.

And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
globe.

The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
antenna.

Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
by the average radio enthusiast.

Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
the summer and winter solstices.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
(MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
give me credit for it.

Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

The K7RA Solar Update

Last week this bulletin reported a return of sunspot activity on September 29 after a 16-day absence from September 13-28, but the new activity only lasted six days. As of Thursday night (October 11) we are now at seven days with no sunspots visible. 

Average daily sunspot number declined from 9.6 to 1.6, while average daily solar flux rose slightly from 68.4 to 68.9. 

Average planetary A index increased from 7.7 to 14.1, while mid-latitude A index rose from 6.1 to 10.3. 

Predicted solar flux is 71 on October 12, 70 on October 13-18, 69 on October 19 through November 25. 

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on October 12-15, 5 on October 16-17, 12 on October 18-19, then 14, 8 and 12 on October 20-22, 8 on October 23—25, 10 on October 26, 5 on October 27 through November 2, then 22 and 35 on November 3-4, 15 on November 5-6, then 10, 8, 5, 10 and 8 on November 7-11, 5 on November 12-13, then 10, 25, 14, 8 and 12 on November 14-18, 8 on November 19-21, 10 on November 22 and 5 on November 23-25. 

Conditions should continue at marginal levels because of weak solar activity. 

I keep checking the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast from SWPC (see ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/ ) because once a month they update solar cycle predictions for smoothed sunspot number and smoothed 10.7 cm solar flux. For the past several years (at least back to early 2015) the projection ended in December 2019. It is widely believed that this cycle (24) should reach solar minimum in 2020, so I keep checking for projections that go past 2019, but so far nothing new is posted. 

You can see the latest projection in a recent bulletin on pages 10-11 at ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse/2018/WeeklyPDF/prf2249.pdf. It shows the predicted smoothed sunspot number for October 2018 at 11. 

Because the smoothed sunspot number is averaged over a year, this means that about half of the current average is made up of real sunspot numbers averaged over the past 6 months and the other part of the average is made up of predicted sunspot numbers over the next 6 months. So, as you look at the averages, for every month you look back, you see the results of more and more real sunspot numbers. 

Note that in July 2018 the projected smoothed sunspot number is only 1. This may change as time goes on and more of actual sunspot numbers are figured into the average. 

More detail on smoothed sunspot numbers: 

http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/52 

http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-ssn-history-voacap.htm 



Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 12 to November 07, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. 

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on October 13, 16, 29-31, on November 1

Quiet to unsettled on October 14-15, 17, 27, 31

Quiet to active on October 12, 20, 22-26, on November 2, 7

Unsettled to active on October 18, 21, 28, on November 5-6

Active to disturbed on October 19, on November 3-4 

Solar wind will intensify on October 12-13, (14,) 17-20, (27-28,) on November 2-5 

Remark:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.



For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. 

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. 

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. 

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. 

Sunspot numbers for October 4 through 10, 2018 were 11, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 67.2, 68.7, 68.6, 69.5, 68.8, 69.5, and 69.8, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 9, 6, 24, 21, 17, and 18, with a mean of 14.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 8, 5, 13, 16, 14, and 12, with a mean of 10.3.