:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Apr 26 0356 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 April 2021
Solar activity ranged from very low to R1 (Moderate) over the
reporting period. Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19
Apr) produced an M1/Sn flare at 19/2342 UTC, the largest of the
period. The impulsive flare produced both a Type II and Type IV
radio sweep. Subsequent coronagraph imagery indicated any ejecta
from the event was not Earth-directed. However, the Region would go
on to produce a C3/1f flare on 22/0921 UTC that would also produce a
Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Analysis and modeling of this event
suggested CME effects would reach Earth over 25 Apr. Over the next
few days, Region 2816 would continue to slowly decay. No other CME
signatures observed in available coronagraph imagery suggested a
component on the Sun-Earth line.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels. High levels were observed on 19-25 Apr before
geomagnetic activity in response to a passing CME caused flux to
drop to normal to moderate levels on 26 Apr.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels. G1 (Minor) storm conditions were first observed late on 23
Apr during a transition from a CIR into a negative polarity CH HSS
following a period of peak total magnetic field strength of 11 nT
while Bz reached as far south as -10 nT. A second isolated period of
G1 (Minor) storm conditions was observed early on 25 Apr during the
onset of influence from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr and was
first observed at L1 at 24/2221 UTC. Solar wind parameters increased
abruptly to a total magnetic field strength of 11 nT and Bz dropped
to -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased to ~490 km/s and would
fluctuate between ~460-500 km/s through the end of the reporting
period. A negative polarity CH HSS produced active conditions on 19
Apr and unsettled conditions on 20-21 Apr. Wind speeds from the HSS
decreased from ~650 km/s on 20 Apr to under 450 km/s by 22 Apr. Only
quiet conditions were observed on 22 Apr.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 April - 22 May 2021
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for
moderate activity from Region 2820 (S22, L=210, class/area Dai/80 on
25 Apr) over 26 Apr - 01 May, when the region will rotate around the
W. limb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from moderate to high. High levels are likely on
14-22 May due to activity associated with an anticipated negative
polarity CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels are likely for the
remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions are likely on
26 Apr due to waning CME effects. Active conditions are again likely
on 02-03 May and unsettled on 04 May under influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS. A SSBC is expected to cause unsettled conditions on
11 May and negative polarity CH HSS influence is expected to cause
active conditions on 12 May, G1 (Minor) conditions on 13 May, G2
(Moderate) conditions on 14 May before decreasing to active
conditions on 12-17 May as CH HSS effects wane. Another negative
polarity CH HSS is expected to cause active conditions on 20 May and
unsettled conditions on 21 May. The remainder of the outlook period
is expected to be at quiet levels.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Apr 26 0356 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-04-26
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Apr 26 79 15 4
2021 Apr 27 78 5 2
2021 Apr 28 78 5 2
2021 Apr 29 78 5 2
2021 Apr 30 78 5 2
2021 May 01 75 5 2
2021 May 02 73 15 4
2021 May 03 72 12 4
2021 May 04 72 10 3
2021 May 05 72 5 2
2021 May 06 72 5 2
2021 May 07 72 5 2
2021 May 08 72 5 2
2021 May 09 72 5 2
2021 May 10 73 5 2
2021 May 11 73 8 3
2021 May 12 74 12 4
2021 May 13 74 20 5
2021 May 14 77 30 6
2021 May 15 79 15 4
2021 May 16 79 15 4
2021 May 17 79 12 4
2021 May 18 79 5 2
2021 May 19 79 5 2
2021 May 20 79 15 4
2021 May 21 79 10 3
2021 May 22 79 5 2
