Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 09 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 - 08 November 2020

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Very
low levels were observed on 02 Nov. Activity increased to low levels
on 03-08 Nov with the emergence of Region 2781 (S23, L=255,
class/area Eki/475 on 06 Nov). This fairly large, complex beta-gamma
region produced numerous C-class events, the largest a C7/1f
observed at 05/0022 UTC. Though some intermediate spot decay was
evident by 08 Nov, the region continued to produce low-level
activity. Region 2780 (N20, L=278, class/area Bxo/010 on 07 Nov) was
quiet throughout the highlight period.

A slow-moving CME was detected off the WNW limb in LASCO C2 imagery,
first visible at 08/1936 UTC. Initial model analysis indicated there
was no Earth-directed component, but further analysis is ongoing. No
other CMEs were detected during the highlight period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 05 and 06 Nov with a peak flux of 2,950 pfu observed
at 05/1540 UTC. Moderate levels were observed on 02-04 Nov and 07-08
Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels with a few
isolated unsettled intervals observed on 06 and 07 Nov due to weak,
negative polarity CH HSS effects. The period began under a nominal
solar wind environment with a predominately positive phi angle. By
about 05/1400 UTC, a SSBC was observed as phi rotated from a
positive to negative orientation. Solar wind parameters responded
midday on 05 Nov through 07 Nov with an increase in total field to
10 nT while the Bz component reached -8 nT. Solar wind speeds
increased from about 300 km/s to about 500 km/s. By 08 Nov, wind
parameters were at more nominal levels with a neutral IMF and wind
speeds near 425 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 November - 05 December 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance
for R1 (Minor) levels, on 09-15 Nov as Rgn 2781 remains on the
visible disk. Very low to low levels are possible on 16-27 Nov due
to the return of old Rgns 2778 (S22, L=084) and 2779 (S17, L=076).
By 28 Nov through 05 Dec, activity levels are expected to increase
to low, with a slight chance of R1 (Minor) activity, due to the
return old Rgn 2781 (S23, L=255)

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 09-20 Nov and 29 Nov
- 05 Dec. High levels are expected on 21-28 Nov due to recurrent CH
HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 12-13 Nov and 03-04 Dec due to recurrent, negative
polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to isolated active conditions are
expected on 17-25 Nov due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS
influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 09-11, 14-16
Nov, 26 Nov - 02 Dec and 05 Dec.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 09 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-11-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Nov 09      90           5          2
2020 Nov 10      88           5          2
2020 Nov 11      86           5          2
2020 Nov 12      84           8          3
2020 Nov 13      82          10          3
2020 Nov 14      82           5          2
2020 Nov 15      80           5          2
2020 Nov 16      78           5          2
2020 Nov 17      78          10          3
2020 Nov 18      78           5          2
2020 Nov 19      78          10          4
2020 Nov 20      78          15          5
2020 Nov 21      78          12          4
2020 Nov 22      78          15          5
2020 Nov 23      78           8          3
2020 Nov 24      78          10          4
2020 Nov 25      78          12          4
2020 Nov 26      80           5          2
2020 Nov 27      82           5          2
2020 Nov 28      86           5          2
2020 Nov 29      86           5          2
2020 Nov 30      86           5          2
2020 Dec 01      86           5          2
2020 Dec 02      86           5          2
2020 Dec 03      86           8          3
2020 Dec 04      86           8          3
2020 Dec 05      86           5          2