Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Nov 23 0446 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 November 2020

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region 2785 (S23,
L=359, class/area, Hsx/060 on 22 Nov) produced an impulsive C3/Sf
flare at 22/1731 UTC, the largest of the period, from the E limb.
Shortly after, the region produced a 160 sfu tenflare at 22/1943
UTC. Multiple CME signatures were observed in coronagraph imagery
that appear to have originated near the region; however, given the
proximity to the limb they are not likely to have an Earth-directed
component.

Region 2783 (S23, L=072, class/area, Hsx/080 on 21 Nov) was mostly
stable through the week but did produce a C1/1f flare at 20/1703
UTC. Some coronal dimming was observed around the region between
21/1600-1800 UTC and may be associated with a slow-moving CME
signature seen in LASCO SOHO/C2 imagery after 21/2236 UTC. Analysis
and modeling of the event is ongoing.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. Quiet levels were observed over 16-19 Nov.
A period of sustained southward Bz caused unsettled levels on 20
Nov. The onset of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS produced
active conditions on 21 Nov and peaked with an isolated period of G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 22 Nov. Solar wind speeds
increased to a peak between 600-650 km/s early on 22 Nov and
gradually declined after. Total magnetic field strength peaked
earlier with 12 nT observed at 21/2212 UTC and slowly declined to
below 5 nT by the end of the reporting period. The Bz component
reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at 21/2212 UTC.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 November - 19 December 2020

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance of
R1 (Minor) radio blackouts from 23 Nov to 06 Dec. Very low levels
are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are
expected on 23-28 Nov and normal to moderate levels are expected for
the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to at quiet to G1 (minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are likely on 19 Dec; active
conditions are likely on 23 Nov, 25 Nov and 18 Dec; unsettled
conditions are likely on 24 Nov, 26 Nov and 03-04 Dec. All increases
in geomagnetic activity are expected due to multiple, recurrent CH
HSSs. The remainder of outlook period is expected to be at quiet
levels.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Nov 23 0446 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-11-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Nov 23      90          18          5
2020 Nov 24      92          10          3
2020 Nov 25      94          12          4
2020 Nov 26      94          10          3
2020 Nov 27      94           5          2
2020 Nov 28      94           5          2
2020 Nov 29      92           5          2
2020 Nov 30      92           5          2
2020 Dec 01      92           5          2
2020 Dec 02      92           5          2
2020 Dec 03      92           8          3
2020 Dec 04      92           8          3
2020 Dec 05      92           5          2
2020 Dec 06      88           5          2
2020 Dec 07      85           5          2
2020 Dec 08      82           5          2
2020 Dec 09      80           5          2
2020 Dec 10      78           5          2
2020 Dec 11      75           5          2
2020 Dec 12      75           5          2
2020 Dec 13      75           5          2
2020 Dec 14      75           5          2
2020 Dec 15      75           5          2
2020 Dec 16      75           5          2
2020 Dec 17      75           5          2
2020 Dec 18      77          12          4
2020 Dec 19      80          24          5