:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 October 2017
Solar activity was at very low levels and spotless with the
exception of the emergence of new Region 2684 (N11, L=312,
class/area Bxo/010 on 15 Oct) late in the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 09-11 Oct, high levels on 12-14 Oct, and very
high levels on 15 Oct. The largest flux of the period was 59,298 pfu
observed at 15/1645 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels. The period began with solar wind speeds between 300-400 km/s
and total field ranging from 1-5 nT on 09-10 Oct. The geomagnetic
field was at quiet levels on 09 Oct and quiet to unsettled levels on
10 Oct. By late on 10 Oct, total field and solar wind speed began to
increase as a polar connected, positive polarity, coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Total field increased to
12 nT at 11/1115 UTC and solar wind speed gradually increased to a
maximum of 737 km/s at 14/0550 UTC. Solar wind speed slowly
decreased thereafter to near 550 km/s by the end of the period. The
geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 11-12 Oct and 14-15 Oct. Quiet to G2 (Moderate)
storm levels were observed on 13 Oct.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 16 OCTOBER-11 NOVEMBER 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. A chance for
C-flares is likely on 19 Oct-03 Nov with the return of old Regions
2682 (S10, L=126) and 2683 (N13, L=111).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high to very high levels on 16-18 Oct and again on
27 Oct and 11 Nov. High levels are expected on 19-21 Oct, 25-26 Oct,
28 Oct-01 Nov and on 08-10 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influences.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 16-22 Oct, 24-29 Oct, 01-02 Nov, and 07-11 Nov. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 24-25 Oct and 07-11 Nov and
G2 (Moderate) levels are likely on 25 Oct and 10 Nov due to
recurrent CH HSS effects.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 16 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-10-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Oct 16 70 18 4
2017 Oct 17 70 10 3
2017 Oct 18 70 12 4
2017 Oct 19 72 12 4
2017 Oct 20 72 8 3
2017 Oct 21 72 8 3
2017 Oct 22 72 8 3
2017 Oct 23 72 5 2
2017 Oct 24 72 35 5
2017 Oct 25 72 45 6
2017 Oct 26 72 15 4
2017 Oct 27 72 15 4
2017 Oct 28 72 10 3
2017 Oct 29 72 8 3
2017 Oct 30 72 5 2
2017 Oct 31 72 5 2
2017 Nov 01 72 8 3
2017 Nov 02 72 10 3
2017 Nov 03 70 5 2
2017 Nov 04 70 5 2
2017 Nov 05 70 5 2
2017 Nov 06 70 5 2
2017 Nov 07 70 28 5
2017 Nov 08 70 30 5
2017 Nov 09 70 40 5
2017 Nov 10 70 28 6
2017 Nov 11 70 26 5
(SWPC via DXLD)
