:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Sep 04 0551 UTC
#
Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#
Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic
Activity 28 Aug - 03 Sept 2017
Solar activity ranged from very low to low
levels. Very low levels
were observed on 31 Aug while low levels dominated
the period from
28-30 Aug and again from 01-03 Sep. The period began as
Regions 2673
(S10, L=117, class/area Dsc/130 on 03 Sep) and 2674 (N14,
L=103,
class/area Fhc/930 on 03 Sep) were rotating onto the east limb
as
simple alpha and beta magnetic configurations on 28-29
Sep,
respectively. Region 2672 (N08, L=227, class/area Dao/270 on 22
Aug)
was in decay as it approached the west limb on 01 Sep. By midday
on
01 Sep, Region 2674 began a growth phase which increased its
overall
area to approximately 930 millionths and produced 12 C-class
flares
including a C5/Sf at 30/1845 UTC. Region 2673 began a slow
growth
phase on 02 Sep, however rapid spot development occurred on 03
Sep
increasing its area to approximately 130 millionths with
a
Dsc/beta-gamma spot classification. The largest flare of the period
was
a C7 observed at 02/1541 UTC, with an associated Type II (976
km/s) radio
burst and non-Earth directed coronal mass ejection
(CME), from Region 2672.
An earlier CME was observed off the west limb on SOHO/LASCO
C3
imagery at approximately 28/1930 UTC. This CME was analyzed and it
was
determined there was a possibility of a glancing blow on 01 Sep,
however no
definitive signs were observed in solar wind data.
No proton events were
observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 30-31 Aug, moderate levels on 28
Aug, and at high
levels on 29 Aug and 01-03 Sep. The largest flux of the
period was
12,319 pfu observed at 03/1705 UTC.
Geomagnetic field
activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm
levels during the period.
Solar wind speed appeared to be in decline
from approximately 500 km/s to
around 350 km/s by 29 Aug with total
field around 6-8 nT. Solar wind speed,
temperature, and density was
unreliable in DSCOVR solar wind data between
28/0600 UTC and 29/1655
UTC. A solar sector boundary crossing into a negative
sector was
observed at approximately 29/1925 UTC with a brief increase in
total
field to 13 nT. The Bz component deflected southward to -10 nT.
The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 28 and 30 Aug
while
quiet to active levels were observed on 29 Aug. At
approximately
31/0100 UTC total field began to increase, phi angle switched
into a
positive sector, and solar wind speed and temperature began to
rise
as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
moved
into a geoeffective position. Total field reached a maximum of 30
nT
at 31/0615 UTC. Solar wind speed was mostly between 530 km/s to
680
km/s through 03 Sep and then began to decline to approximately
480
km/s by the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded
with
quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 31 Aug and 02 Sep, quiet
to
active levels on 01 Sep, and quiet to unsettled levels on 03 Sep.
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 04 - 30 SEPTEMBER
2017
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance
for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 04-11 Sep and again
from
14-30 Sep due to potential significant flare activity from
Region
2673, 2674, and the return of old Region 2672. Very low levels
are
expected from 12-13 Sep.
No proton events are expected at
geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07,
13, 21-27 Sep.
High levels are expected on 04-06, 08-12, 14-20, and 28-30 Sep
due
to CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be
at unsettled to active
levels on 04, 07-09, 13-17, 27-30 Sep with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic
storm levels likely on 13-16, 27-29 Sep and G2 (Moderate)
storm
levels likely on 14-15 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Sep 04 0551 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and
SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued
2017-09-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
#
Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Sep 04 120
10 4
2017 Sep 05 118 8 3
2017 Sep 06
116 5 2
2017 Sep 07 116 15 4
2017
Sep 08 116 15 4
2017 Sep 09 105
8 3
2017 Sep 10 90 5 2
2017 Sep 11
85 5 2
2017 Sep 12 80 5 2
2017
Sep 13 80 25 5
2017 Sep 14 85
30 6
2017 Sep 15 85 30 6
2017 Sep 16
85 25 5
2017 Sep 17 85 12 4
2017
Sep 18 88 5 2
2017 Sep 19 92
5 2
2017 Sep 20 92 8 3
2017 Sep 21
92 5 2
2017 Sep 22 95 5 2
2017
Sep 23 98 8 3
2017 Sep 24 100
5 2
2017 Sep 25 105 8 3
2017 Sep 26
110 5 2
2017 Sep 27 110 20 5
2017
Sep 28 110 20 5
2017 Sep 29 110
20 5
2017 Sep 30 110 12 4
(SWPC via
DXLD)