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Published on
Sunday September 24, 2017 at 1630 UTC
Solar Space
& Geomagnetic Weather Conditions on Saturday September 23,
2017-
Solar activity
had been low.
Earth's
geomagnetic field had been at a quiet geomagnetic level.
The three
daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers had been 80.2 81.2 82.5.
The official
daily sunspot number (SSN) had been 12.
In 2017
officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of
0. Considering that solar minimum won't occur
for approximately 2 more years, +/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring
unusually early.
In 2016
officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of 0.
As we move
forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24 and #25 the
number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase. Eventually every day
for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose egg.
In 2008 I
forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years and that
forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be virtually
nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that occurred in the early
1800's.
Other than
sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when
solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.
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Officially
there had been 1 earth facing sunspot group (SSG).
Sunspot group
(SSG) #12681 was located near S13E33 with a beta magnetic signature.
It was capable
of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated medium in size
M class solar flare.
There had been
2 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot groups (SSG) located
near
N08W27,
S11E87.
There had been
1 returning (recurrent) sunspot group old #12673.
((((((((((Recurrent
sunspot group #12673 had begun to rise above the east limb of the sun. In its
previous passage across the earth facing side of the sun it wreaked havoc on
earth’s geomagnetic field and ionosphere. But the odds are that this next trip
around the sunspot group will be less active.))))))))))
There had been
no small in size C class solar flare or larger.
There had been
no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been
no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME).
There had been
no directly (geoeffective) or partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME)
D layer ionosphere involved high latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV
(10+0).
The high
latitude absorption via earths over ionized D layer is called polar cap
absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic electrons and
protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring
current.
There had been
no earth aimed solar flare related x-ray day side D layer involved solar fade
out (SFO).
There had been
no directly earth aimed (geoeffective) or partially earth aimed collapsing
magnetic filament eruption.
The 24 hour
period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at quiet geomagnetic
conditions of
1 1 1 0 1 1 2
1.
The 24 hour
period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index had been at quiet geomagnetic
conditions of
1 1 1 0 1 1 2
1.
The K(p)
geomagnetic indices are-
0-2-
quiet
3- unsettled
4- active
5- minor geomagnetic
storming
6- moderate
7- strong
8- severe
9- extreme
10- our atmosphere just got
cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) had ranged
between
7 and
2,
which was at
quiet geomagnetic conditions.
The Ap
geomagnetic indices are-
0-7-
quiet
8-15- unsettled
16-29- active
30-49- minor geomagnetic
storm
50-99- major
100-400- severe
>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like
on Mars and we are all dead.
The 24 hour
period maximum background x-ray flux had been at B2.81.
The 24 hour
period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's
geomagnetic magnetic field had been at approximately
-5 nT
south.
The larger the
negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be
observed outside of the polar regions.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum disturbance
storm time index (Dst) had
ranged between
-19 and -1 nT.
The 24 hour
period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged had ranged
between
387 and 337
km/s.
There was 1
recurrent large in size earth facing transequatorial coronal hole (CH) #826
(#822).
It’s future
attached high speed solar wind stream (HSS) will impact earth’s geomagnetic
field in a negative manner in the form of minor geomagnetic storming in
approximately 1-2 days.
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GENERAL
GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-
NOTE!!! The
propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property.
Therefore the radio wave propagation indices interpretations contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved.
Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as
long as proper credit is given.
All 14 of the
following indices have to occur as described below in order to see the best
global high frequency radio wave propagation possible, something that happens
rarely.
1.) Dropping
geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.
2.) A daily
sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.
3.) A daily
sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation of the E
Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous
24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are
best.
5.) Previous 3
hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high
latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic
protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).
7.) Background
x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days consecutively, greater than
C1 best.
8.) No current
STRATWARM alert.
9.)
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates
a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction
or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above
3.
10.) A -10 or
better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a
geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number
is best.
11.) Rising
positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency
(foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to
refract RF signals.
12.) Galactic
cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending towards
zero.
13.) Energetic
electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).
14. A solar
wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.
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Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use
error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, other
U.S. government entities, educational institutions and some private individuals,
to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion. This data
is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including
mine).
However this
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the
RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is
copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.
